by Andrew Brokos
Implied odds are at once one of the most important and one of the most misunderstood concepts in no-limit hold ‘em. This is a case of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. Many players reduce this complex concept to a sound bite- “If I flop a big hand, I can stack him…”- and go about merrily lighting money on fire with their pre-flop calls. This article aims to debunk some common misunderstandings about implied odds so that you can start making, rather than losing, money with them.
Myth #1: “I Can Chase a Set for Up to 10% of the Effective Stacks”
This is by far the most common misunderstanding about implied odds, and while it’s been addressed elsewhere, I’d be remiss not to debunk it here.
Suppose that in a $.50/$1 NLHE game, you raise to $3 with a pair of 7’s. You get re-raised, and it is $7 more for you to call. It’s unlikely you can win unimproved at showdown, but you’re about 8.5:1 to flop a set. Factor in the risk of getting cold decked by something like a higher set, and back-of-the-envelope math suggests that you can profitably “set mine” if you expect to win about ten times your investment, or $70, the times that you hit
That does not mean that you can profitably call any time that $70 or more remains in the effective stacks. For one thing, you need to assess how likely your opponent is to make a hand that will pay you off. I would argue that even the ideal set mining candidate, one who re-raises a tight range of Jacks or better and Ace-King and always stacks off he flops top pair or better, will not give you his stack often enough to warrant a call for 10% of the effective stacks.
If the flop comes with low cards, he will have AK about 40% of the time. When you flop a set, you’ll often win a continuation bet but nothing more. If an Ace or King flops, you’ll stack him when he has AK but not when he has QQ or JJ.
The situation is even worse against a trickier opponent who can reraise with a wider range. He will flop a big hand far less often, and when he does hit something big, it will beat your set of 2’s more often.
Unfortunately, I can’t give you a new rule of thumb to replace the “Rule of 10”. You have to assess your implied odds against a specific opponent based on what you know of his re-raising range and his post-flop tendencies. In all likelihood, though, thinking rigorously about his range and the kinds of flops that will win you his stack will lead you to conclude that you need far more than 10:1 implied odds to chase a set.
Myth #2: “Deeper Stacks Mean Better Implied Odds”
Functionally, this will be true for the majority of situations. Most people are accustomed to playing cash games with 100 big blind stacks or tournaments with even smaller ones. In these cases, it is generally true that if you add a few more BB’s to the effective stacks, you stand to win more money if you hit a strong hand such as a set.
Failure to understand the concept more thoroughly, however, can be costly in very deep stacked situations, such as in the early stages of certain tournaments or in uncapped cash games. This is for two reasons: you may overestimate how much money you will win from lesser hands and underestimate how often you will lose to better hands.
With the right image, it is not too difficult to stack a good overpair for 100 BB’s or so when you flop a set. Increase the effective stacks to 200BB’s, and while you may not stack your opponent, you can usually count on winning more than 100BB’s anyway.
Keep increasing the effective stacks, though, and you may find that not only will you not stack your opponent, but you may win less than you would were stacks shallower. This is because with more money behind, it becomes more correct for your opponent to release an overpair early in the hand when you show strength. With 100BB stacks, your opponent may call a flop raise with an overpair planning to check-raise all-in on the turn. He can count on inducing bluffs and getting paid by weaker hands in your range, and his downside is limited when you have a big hand such as a set.
With 400BB stacks, your opponent may call a flop raise and check-fold if you bet the turn. Proceeding on the turn here would put far more money at risk, and for the same reason, he reasonably expects that you are less likely to play a big pot with a worse hand. Even check-calling with such deep money leaves him in a dangerous spot on the river, where he may face enormous value bets and bluffs, threats that do not exist when stacks are shallower. For the same reason that bluffs and semi-bluffs are more effective when stacks are deep, value bets get paid less, decreasing the implied odds of certain hands
This also means that when your opponent does play for 400BB stacks, your small set is likely to be dominated. Small suited connectors face a similar problem. With 100BB stacks, running into a larger flush or two-card straight is generally an unavoidable cooler. With 400BB stacks, it’s a very real danger for small suited connectors
Hand values vary with stack size, and your pre-flop hand strategy needs to change based on what kinds of hands you are aiming to make. A good implied odds hand with 100BB stacks can become a dangerous reverse implied odds hand with 400BB stacks. This doesn’t necessarily mean that you shouldn’t play small pairs or suited connectors, but you have to play them more cautiously and count your implied odds differently.
Myth #3: My Implied Odds Equal the Money I Will Win If I Make My Hand
This one may not technically count as a myth. In the absence of an official poker dictionary, I suppose you can define implied odds however you wish (be aware, though, that any time you refer to the first raise as a “re-raise”, a kitten dies).
I believe most players would benefit, though, from thinking more broadly about the equity they stand to make on future streets. Equity does not have to come in the form of a value bet. Importantly, it also includes equity that you can gain from bluffing in certain situations.
Suppose that you hold 87 offsuit on a T [club] 9 [club] A [diamond] 5 [heart] board. A tight, cautious opponent bets half the pot into you, offering you 3:1 on a call. With eight outs once, you don’t have the correct immediate odds to draw. Against some opponents, you might be able to justify calling here anyway, on the belief that you will win a big pot if you make a straight on the river.
This particular opponent, though, will check and fold if an obvious draw hits on the river. A flawed understanding of implied odds might lead you to believe that you have none and therefore should fold. Realize, though, that this means he will also check and fold if a club falls on the river. Effectively, then, you have eight outs to a straight plus nine clubs you can bluff, which is enough to make a call profitable.
Though it’s a bit more difficult to calculate exactly, the same concept applies pre-flop. Calling a late position raise with a suited connector when you have the button is a good example. Since the pre-flop raiser probably has a wide and not particularly strong range, you can’t count on winning a big pot on the rare occasions that you make two pair or better. Because his range is so wide, though, you will often be able to steal the pot when you flop a weak draw or even a scary board texture. Whether you want to call it implied odds, bluff equity, or something else, this is as much a justification for taking slightly the worst of it on an early street as is drawing at a monster hand.
Note that as a result of this understanding of implied odds, we may have to modify our conclusions above about stack depth. No matter what your hand is, your implied odds will improve as stacks gets deeper as long as you have position. Position enables you to make better calls, value bets, and bluffs, and deeper stacks mean that you’ll make bigger decisions on more streets. When out of position, your implied odds will be worse no matter what your hand is. That brings us to…
Myth #4: “Trouble Hands”
The first major concept to master when learning NLHE is pre-flop hand selection. New players generally learn to play hands that are simple to play post-flop. Did you flop top pair with top kicker? Then value bet. Did you miss the flop? Then bluff at once and give up to resistance.
As part of this strategy, many players learn to avoid “trouble hands” that can easily flop second-best hands. The quintessential example is an Ace with a weak kicker, which conventional wisdom holds will either “win a small pot or lose a big one.” In other words, in the hands of an amateur, such cards carry heavy reverse implied odds.
This assumes, however, that you will automatically lose a big pot just because you make a pair of Aces. That’s probably a reasonable assumption in the early stages of your development as a NLHE player, but eventually you learn skills like hand reading and pot control, at which point you hopefully stop paying off like a slot machine just because you flop top pair.
Does that mean you can start playing A6 offsuit? Yes and no. When out of position, A6o is still a trouble hand. You may be able to get off cheaply when you flop top pair with a dominated kicker, but can you avoid getting bluff of Ace-high (or a pair of Aces, for that matter) when it’s the best hand? Probably not, if you are out of position. In position, though, you should be able to make good decisions about when to check for pot control, when to bluff, when to value bet, and when to fold.
Conclusion: Implied Odds Are About Position
The central message here is that position is critical when calculating implied odds. Implied odds are really a measure of how much better or worse you will be able to play your hand on future streets relative to your opponent. If you can count on better information and better decision making later in the hand, then you can afford to pass up some immediate equity on the current street. Position, of course, is the single most important factor when it comes to gathering information and making good decisions.
When playing out of position, it’s important to choose hands that will not be too difficult to play post-flop. Pocket pairs are generally a good example, as a set will quite often be worth your entire stack. With trickier hands like small suited connectors and weak Aces, it is far more difficult to make good decisions even on relatively good boards when out of position. This disadvantage is only magnified when stacks are deeper.
With position, however, almost any hand can be an “implied odds” hand, because you will both bluff and value bet better than your opponent. The stronger you perceive your opponent’s hand range to be and the shallower the stacks, the more you will need to focus on hands that can flop big or go home, pocket pairs being the quintessential example. As stacks get deeper and your opponents get looser, more hands have better implied odds when in position but worse implied odds when out of position.
This more nuanced appreciation for implied odds should help you apply the concept more effectively, avoid costly mistakes, and take advantage of such mistakes when your opponents make them.
This article originally appeared in Two Plus Two Magazine.