River Bluff Raise

Here’s a tricky little play I made early in tonight’s session. I’m going to try using an embeddable replayer that one of my readers suggested to me, but if you have trouble watching it, please leave a comment to let me know. I won’t use it again if it causes problems for people. Also, if you have trouble with it, try the permalink.

I had no history with this guy that I recalled, though I did have some stats on him suggesting he was kind of tight. Four-betting and folding would also be options pre-flop, but I was hoping to play my position and keep dominated hands in his range.

I was planning to fold a flop like this, but how much fun is that? His bet sizing seemed weak, though they may have been intentional. Having turned a flush draw, I’ve got a lot of value now, but I don’t think he folds many better hands to a bet.

On the river, I think he very rarely has better than one pair. Based on his stats, the fact that we’re at a full ring table, and our lack of history, I doubt he’s 3-betting a lot of suited cards. In all likelihood, he’s got an overpair here. My flop call represented a pair of my own or some other hand that I thought was good, so I shouldn’t have a hand that needs to bluff the river. Thus, I think it’s really tough for him to call even with AA.

Remember, please let me know if you don’t like this replayer for any reason, or if you’ve got any thoughts on the hand.

12 thoughts on “River Bluff Raise”

  7. I’m sure the replayer is awesome….but it gets blocked by the webfilters at my office. Same with the Cardrunners HH’s.

    I look forward to seeing the hand from home, tonight.

  8. Loved the replayer.

    I play much lower than you, but I’m surprised you think villain will fold an overpair to you here.

    If anything, 5/10 players should put you on a broader range than a microstakes player, since they understand hand ranges are broad in a button vs. blind situation.

  10. Danger,

    The guy was a full ring player whose name I didn’t recognize and whose stats suggested he was pretty tight. That seemed like the profile of an unimaginative, kind of nitty player.

    Even if he recognizes my pre-flop range as kind of wide, that doesn’t tell him very much about my flop calling or river jamming range. The point here is that everything up to the river suggests that I have a hand with showdown value. If I did have a draw on the flop, it got there on the river. So to make the river call with one pair, he has to give me credit for turning a made hand into a bluff. I have my doubts as to whether he would even know what that means.

    Thanks for the comment. And thanks to everyone for your feedback. Todd and others with aggressive filters at work, I’ll see if I can facilitate your slacking by posting converted HH’s as well when I use the replayer.

  11. Yea I got kind of confused in your analysis there too – you say that your call on the flop represents a made hand (I assume that’s what “hand you thought was good” means), but then your raise on the river represents a flush.

    You think he’d realize you’d never raise KK-QQ (probably 4 bet pre anyway), TT-99 here, but not that you could be bluffing? I’m not arguing, I’m just wondering if that’s true for standard villains.

    If it were me, I’d be a lot more likely to believe you had a set of jacks on the river than a flush.

    Here’s a question: if he checks the river, are you firing? My guess is no since he’s likely to be check-calling a lot of his range. His lead bet allows you to represent more strength than betting after his two checks would.

    bruechips

    p.s. love the replayer, but you might want to speed it up a little bit…

  12. Sprit,

    What I mean to say is that it’s very unlikely for me to get to the river with a hand that needs to bluff. The river jam is obviously representing great strength, probably a set of J’s or better, or a bluff.

    If he checks the river, I’m happy to check back and probably win 25% of the time or more. When he bets, the strength of AK unimproved shrivels up and dies.

    The replayer is a bit slow for my taste as well, but as best I can tell there is not a way to speed it up.

    Thanks for the comments,
    Andrew

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