Well, after posting two instances of getting away very cheap from second-best hands, I finally outdid myself this week. In my defense, I’d been outflopped or turned by unlikely hands more than a few times this session, and worse I’d paid off when I should have known I was beat in a few of those instances.
I opened to $15 with KJo in MP, the supertight and straightforward Villain from this hand called in the CO, the button called, and the big blind called. The flop came Kd 7d 2c, and not liking my chances of getting called by a second-best hand, I checked. We ended up checking it around.
The turn brought the 9s. The big blind checked, I bet $35, and the supertight and straightforward Villain raised to $75. The action folded back to me.
I was 180% sure this player believed he had the best hand, but I failed to think with enough specificity what that would entail. He would definitely have bet KQ or AK on the flop, and while it wouldn’t be unheard of for him to check a set, he also might well have bet one, because ZOMGFLUSHDRAW. None of the two-pair combinations, not even 97s, are in his pre-flop range (nor are dominated Kings, for that matter).
I should have realized that I was looking at an outside chance of a set but more likely, especially given the size of the raise, TT, JJ, or A9s that isn’t giving me credit for a King because I checked the flop. That is, after all, why I checked the flop.
Anyway, I decided I was going to rack up my greatest hero fold to date and threw my hand away. My opponent happily showed me a pair of Tens. “I had you beat, right?”
“I had Aces,” I told him, which is becoming known as my standard response, no matter how implausible, whenever anyone asks about my hand.
I played around to my blind and then quit for the night.
I played with a guy in college who 100% of the time, when asked what he had on a hand, said “Full House,” even if it was not possible on the board. I loved it, but I actually think “I had Aces” is better.
Assuming (as you do) that he’d 3-bet QQ+ preflop, JJ/TT isn’t *that* much more likely than a set (12 combos to 9). OTOH, if villain is small-raising TT here, seems possible for him to show up with the nut diamond draw, no?
Would you have called for sure if you were in position?
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Just for fun and I find it lightens the mood sometimes, I used to say “Full House Draw” a lot, or just something else that was kind of random based on texture yet IMO slightly humorous:
ie: “Flush Draw” on a 4 flush board usually gets a smile or “Pair draw” is kinda funny, too.
I play it the same. Who check raises with TT there? It certainly is unlikely to be his standard.
I play with a player like this so I (hope I) would have known that an ‘over-pair’ raise was possible since this player is 100% sure that I would c-bet with any Kx hand. Of course with live play you never really know what you are going to do but I wouldve been inclined to call and look for a showdown or ‘maybe’ a c/c River against this type of an opponent.
I sometimes forget that when I am ‘so’ active at the table that I have to take a half second and think about what cards the opponent is putting me on rather than their range/habits, especially when OOP.
Nits tend to look at what’s right in front of their face … being a 9 and a bet in this spot … and there is no room for meta thinking. Since they think they are ahead of the 9 ‘that we are betting’ then they must protect their advantage and dont want the flush or new straight draws to get there. He is squarely putting us on J9/T9/8T/78 type of hands that we have been showing down since we didnt bet out K for value with a flush draw out there on the Flop.
I certainly cant say that ‘my nit’ wouldnt sit there with AK and let the Flop check through 100% of the time but the c/r on the Turn is very ‘callable’ with the draws that are out there. Any playback should get you to showdown unless they have a 4 or 5 card hand … and you will hear from them on the River with those types of hands. Crazy pure logic, gotta love um. GL
I think both his call preflop, his check after the flop, and very small raise after the turn suggests pretty much that he cannot beat a king–the reason he raises in that spot in my opinion is that he would like to protect his hand from a bad river card he doesn’t know how to deal with, say a diamond or a broadway card. I believe nits like this guy call preflop with a very tight range–pocket pairs+AJ+KQ. His actions so far including the small 3bet at the turn puts him squarely on 88, 1010, JJ, though he may have 3bet you preflop if he had the latter. He’s also more than likely to bet after the flop with the nutflush draw. So i think it was a definite call, plus a check-call after the river.
Welcome to the live games with the nits. You didn’t mention it, but I am leaping to the conclusion that this guy was 40+ (and most likley 60+). I have lots of experience with this breed.
These nits have a tight calling range, and a microscopic 3B range (AA, KK and maybe AK or QQ, but they like to play slowly with AK/QQ until they see a safe flop). They never 3B JJ or worse.
As you pointed out, they rarely bet or raise without “the goods”. In this case, you are usually against a pocket pair or a weak K. If they had better on the flop, they would have bet for protection when you failed to CB. They will never understand why you wouldn’t CB top pair or better in a multi way pot and the dreaded flush draw out there. After all, Doyle told them to NEVER give a free card if there is a draw out. So clearly they don’t expect you to show up with TP.
The fact that they checked behind on the flop indicates that they didn’t love their hand and were afraid of a bigger K on the button or slow played by BB.
So when they raise your DCB, they have 99, TT, JJ, QQ for pocket pairs, and we can perhaps add KJ, KT (probably suited). Every once in a while, they will show up with slow played 77 or 22 that they slowplayed on the flop to make sure the flush card didn’t turn (yes, they will).
Finally, although you stated that these hands were not in his pre flop calling range, it is not inconceivable that they took a flop in position with K9s, K7s or 97s (I know this is not standard for the nits, but I see it from time to time if the stacks are deep enough). I also think he can show up with KQ (and maybe even AK) sometimes in this spot because he was being really careful on the flop (he is a nit after all), or maybe he even hoped to CR the button who may have stabbed at the pot if it checked to him (a reach).
My point is that he really thinks he has the best hand when he raises the turn (as you stated), so he is raising for value. His value raising range includes sets, 2P, better Kings and pairs down to TT. He has a hand that has you crushed in almost every case except QQ, JJ or TT and occasionally KT. In fact, he has to worry that you have QQ or JJ, which you likely would have played exactly as you did, so he is even less likley to show up with JJ or TT.
All of the better hands are in his range, although some more likely than others.
You are in bad shape most of the time and have little equity when behind.
Even though you have underrepresented your hand, he is never raising with worse than the hand he showed down and you just don’t beat much of his value range.
Easy fold, even though you ran into the bottom of his range this time.
The raise is small it’s almost a min raise leads me to believe he does not have a big hand or tpgk. Most nits protect their top pair plus type hands with a fd out there. I think the right line is call and reevaluate. Perhaps lead the river with a smallish blocker bet. This type of line against a nit typically gets just a call. They never raise on the river for value nor as a bluff. They consider their hand just too good to bluff it but not good enough to win if called after a raise. They would call your river blocker bet and then say nice hand as they muck. Even if u call turn check river. He 99% checks behind with his hand. He’s never betting there for value after you’ve called the turn. Your call is scaring the crap outta him. He just hopes to god to win at showdown at that point. In fact, u might go ahead and bet big on the river and he might talk himself into a hero call. I just don’t see what he could possibly have that beats us. I would put him more on a mid pair or fd combo draw himself.
The reason to call turn imo is that I don’t believe he’s betting or raising river ever unless he has it. These nits don’t know how to make thin value bets. So you’re either ahead and can call for cheap or you’re behind and will know for cheap. You just can’t fold when your opponent is not capable of making plays on the river. Sometimes they grow a pair and make a play on the flop or turn but rarely will they continue. If it doesn’t work the first time they typically just give up.
Yeah I think all of this is right.