Saw It Coming

You know you’re in for a rough time when the Sunday Majors haven’t even started yet and you’re already ready to tear your hair out. I was just thinking yesterday how lucky I was to experience so much positive variance in my first shots at the big games. I was wondering how I would take the inevitable first bad day would come. Truthfully, it wasn’t that bad, although it was the worst of my career to date. I don’t feel particularly upset at the moment, probably because it came on the heels of like five of the best days of my career. But here’s to a better tomorrow.

Closer Than It Seems

Full Tilt Poker, $25/$50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

BB: $2,925
UTG: $6,960
Hero (BTN): $5,696
SB: $5,375.50

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $100, Hero raises to $346, SB calls $321, BB folds, UTG calls $246

Flop: ($1,088) A 5 8 (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $850, SB folds, UTG calls $850

Turn: ($2,788) 6 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1,500, UTG calls $1,500

River: ($5,788) K (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3,000 and is All-In, UTG calls $3,000

Results: $11,788 Pot ($2 Rake)
UTG showed 7 8 (a flush, Ace high) and WON $11,786 (+$6,090 NET)
Hero showed K A (two pair, Aces and Kings) and LOST (-$5,696 NET)

I was actually pretty tempted to check back this river. Improving to two pair doesn’t change things much, because it’s very unlikely Villain was checking and calling twice with a worse two pair. Ditto for something like AQ. But he’s just so fishy, and I feel like any time I triple barrel in spots like this I get looked up by AQ or AJ or something. But still, the flush is a non-trivial part of his range, and right or not, this bet is thinner than it seems.

This One I Just Played Bad

The turn is either a fold or a shove, probably a fold. But the call is weak.

Full Tilt Poker, $25/$50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

SB: $4,370.50
Hero (BB): $6,022
BTN: $6,498

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (BB)
BTN raises to $175, SB calls $150, Hero raises to $825, BTN calls $650, SB folds

Flop: ($1,825) 3 J 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1,197, BTN calls $1,197

Turn: ($4,219) 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1,250, Hero calls $1,250

River: ($6,719) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3,200, Hero folds

Results: $6,719 Pot ($1 Rake)
BTN mucked and WON $6,718 (+$3,446 NET)

Just Plain Unlucky

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: nate jizzle ($3374) –
Seat 1: HERO ($2708)
Seat 2: G0n3InW1Nd ($2358)
Seat 3: JoeTFK ($7598.80) –
Seat 4: KONSTAS ($2500) Sitting Out
Seat 5: FISH ($4198) –

PRE-FLOP:

FISH posts small blind $10
nate jizzle posts BIG blind $25
Dealt To: HERO

FLOP:

Pot: $35

TURN:

Pot: $35

RIVER:

Pot: $35

G0n3InW1Nd collected $4749 from main pot with straight, ten high

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $4751 Rake: $2

Final Board:

Seat 1: Ts Tc Th 9h Kd: three tens. – Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 2: 8h Th 9h 7d 6d: straight, ten high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($4749)

Hmm, looks like the converter lost the details, but we got it in on the flop, he had Ah 8h. I dodged the flush but not the running straight.

Which One is the Fish?

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: nate jizzle ($4937) –
Seat 1: HERO ($2513)
Seat 2: G0n3InW1Nd ($4129)
Seat 3: JoeTFK ($7426.80)
Seat 4: Matate ($465) –
Seat 5: FISH ($4021) –

PRE-FLOP:

FISH posts small blind $10
nate jizzle posts BIG blind $25
Dealt To: HERO

RAISE HERO ($85)
FOLD G0n3InW1Nd
FOLD JoeTFK
FOLD Matate
CALL FISH ($85)
FOLD nate jizzle

FLOP:

Pot: $205

CHECK FISH
BET HERO ($125)
CALL FISH ($125)

TURN:

Pot: $455

CHECK FISH
CHECK HERO

RIVER:

Pot: $455

BET FISH ($350)
RAISE HERO ($805)
RAISE FISH ($2860)
CALL HERO ($2303)
UNCALLED FISH ($557)

SHOWDOWN:
FISH:

HERO:

FISH collected $5048 from main pot with flush, ace high

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $5051 Rake: $3

Final Board:

Seat 5: Ks As Ts 5s 9s: flush, ace high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($2535)

Seat 1: Qc Jh Ts 8c 9s: straight, queen high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($-3875)

I dunno. I’ve seen this guy make some awful raises that he thinks are for value, but I still can’t see him doing this with less than a flush. I talked myself into the call because the flush came in the back door, but I think it’s a clear raise/fold on the river.

Blah

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 3: odub303 ($2624) –
Seat 4: HERO ($2549) –

PRE-FLOP:

HERO posts small blind $10
odub303 posts BIG blind $25
Dealt To: HERO

RAISE HERO ($75)
RAISE odub303 ($225)
CALL HERO ($225)

FLOP:

Pot: $525

CHECK odub303
CHECK HERO

TURN:

Pot: $525

BET odub303 ($275)
CALL HERO ($275)

RIVER:

Pot: $1075

BET odub303 ($550)
RAISE HERO ($2049)
CALL odub303 ($2049)

SHOWDOWN:
HERO:

odub303:

odub303 collected $5097 from main pot with full house, sixes full of threes

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $5098 Rake: $1

Final Board:

Seat 4: 4d Ad 6d 7d 9d: flush, ace high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($-2614)
Seat 3: 6h 3h 6c 3d 6d: full house, sixes full of threes. – Net Gain/Loss: ($2548)

This would be better on a non-diamond river, but I still don’t think it’s an awful shove.

OMGTOPPAIR

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: Killer_O ($420)
Seat 1: chusker ($2020)
Seat 2: urdeadpal ($2632)
Seat 3: HERO ($7652) –
Seat 4: odub303 ($2475) –
Seat 5: binrich ($2780) –

PRE-FLOP:

odub303 posts small blind $10
binrich posts BIG blind $25
Dealt To: HERO

FOLD Killer_O
FOLD chusker
FOLD urdeadpal
RAISE HERO ($85)
FOLD odub303
CALL binrich ($85)

FLOP:

Pot: $205

CHECK binrich
BET HERO ($140)
CALL binrich ($140)

TURN:

Pot: $485

CHECK binrich
BET HERO ($425)
CALL binrich ($425)

RIVER:

Pot: $1335

CHECK binrich
BET HERO ($1250)
CALL binrich ($1250)

SHOWDOWN:
HERO:

binrich:

binrich collected $3807 from main pot with two pair, aces and eights

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $3810 Rake: $3

Final Board:

Seat 3: 6c 6d Ad 8h 8d: two pair, eights and sixes. – Net Gain/Loss: ($-1900)
Seat 5: Ah Ad Qh 8h 8d: two pair, aces and eights. – Net Gain/Loss: ($1907)

And this is why I shoved AK for value in that other hand. Different opponent, but people make ridiculous calls like this.

Oy

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: mad00house ($3770)
Seat 1: HERO ($4114) –
Seat 2: binrich ($2506) –
Seat 3: Killer_O ($405) –
Seat 4: urdeadpal ($4171)
Seat 5: FISH ($10806)

PRE-FLOP:

binrich posts small blind $10
Killer_O posts BIG blind $25
Dealt To: HERO

RAISE urdeadpal ($85)
CALL FISH ($85)
CALL mad00house ($85)
CALL HERO ($85)
FOLD binrich
FOLD Killer_O

FLOP:

Pot: $375

CHECK urdeadpal
CHECK FISH
CHECK mad00house
BET HERO ($280)
CALL urdeadpal ($280)
FOLD FISH
CALL mad00house ($280)

TURN:

Pot: $1215

CHECK urdeadpal
CHECK mad00house
BET HERO ($750)
FOLD urdeadpal
RAISE mad00house ($2100)
RAISE HERO ($3749)
CALL mad00house ($3405)
UNCALLED HERO ($344)

RIVER:

Pot: $10125

SHOWDOWN:
HERO:

mad00house:

mad00house collected $8022 from main pot with flush, ace high

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $8025 Rake: $3

Final Board:

Seat 1: 6d 8d 7d Ad 3d: flush, ace high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($-4520)
Seat 0: 9d Jd 7d Ad 3d: flush, acejack high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($1808)

I really wanted to fold the turn, and I think I should have. It’s just soooo unlikely for him to have anything but a flush, and of course very unikely he has a worse flush.

OMGTOPPAIR

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: mad00house ($2193) –
Seat 1: Killer_O ($500)
Seat 2: urdeadpal ($2643)
Seat 3: HERO ($8145) –
Seat 5: binrich ($5571) –

PRE-FLOP:

binrich posts small blind $10
mad00house posts BIG blind $25
Dealt To: HERO

FOLD Killer_O
FOLD urdeadpal
RAISE HERO ($85)
FOLD binrich
CALL mad00house ($85)

FLOP:

Pot: $205

CHECK mad00house
BET HERO ($110)
RAISE mad00house ($400)
RAISE HERO ($1380)
RAISE mad00house ($2108)
CALL HERO ($2108)

TURN:

Pot: $5801

RIVER:

Pot: $5801

SHOWDOWN:
mad00house:

MUCK HERO

mad00house collected $4394 from main pot with flush, jack high

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $4396 Rake: $2

Final Board:

Seat 0: Js 5s 3s 9s 7s: flush, jack high. – Net Gain/Loss: ($1801)

This guy hadn’t been out of line, but he he is very good, and I think KT should be in good shape against his range here. I’d get it in again here.

At Least I Got in a Sexy Turn Overbet

Full Tilt Poker, $25/$50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

UTG+1: $16,743
MP1: $1,075
MP2: $9,111
CO: $10,781
Hero (BTN): $5,225
SB: $4,625
BB: $5,622
UTG: $1,547

Pre-Flop: 9 A dealt to Hero (BTN)
5 folds, Hero raises to $175, SB folds, BB calls $125

Flop: ($375) J 9 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $300, BB calls $300

Turn: ($975) 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1,250, BB calls $1,250

River: ($3,475) J (2 Players)
BB bets $1,000, Hero calls $1,000

Results: $5,475 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked 9 A (a full house, Nines full of Jacks) and LOST (-$2,725 NET)
BB showed K J (a full house, Jacks full of Nines) and WON $5,472 (+$2,747 NET)

I’ve been trying to work overbets into my game, and I think this is a great spot for it. He hits his two-outer, I pay off a tiny river bet, whatever.

Zeebo’ed!

Full Tilt Poker, $25/$50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

MP1: $16,818
MP2: $1,400
CO: $4,925
BTN: $11,206
Hero (SB): $8,967
BB: $4,750
UTG: $5,622
UTG+1: $1,047

Pre-Flop: 7 7 dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP2 raises to $100, CO calls $100, BTN folds, Hero calls $75, BB folds

Flop: ($350) 2 Q 7 (3 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $100, CO calls $100, Hero calls $100

Turn: ($650) Q (3 Players)
Hero bets $417, MP2 folds, CO calls $417

River: ($1,484) K (2 Players)
Hero bets $1,100, CO raises to $2,950, Hero calls $1,850

Results: $7,384 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed K Q (a full house, Queens full of Kings) and WON $7,381 (+$3,814 NET)
Hero mucked 7 7 (a full house, Sevens full of Queens) and LOST (-$3,567 NET)

Ugh, I wanted to fold this so bad. I have functionally the second nuts, the only thing I’m worried about is KQ that got there on the river, but can he really have anything else? He’s a strong player, definitely not raising a flush or trips here, and he probably would have raised the turn with deuces full. But sometimes you just have to see it to believe it.

The Sunday Majors

Does it matter? My opponents always have Aces.

3 thoughts on “Saw It Coming”

  1. I’m not good enough to realistically comment on your play.

    However, I’m not a fan of folding on the river with your TT given that you already called a big bet on the turn. I don’t think you can make the turn call unless you’re willing to call the river bet. Of course, this is from a theoretical point of view and I know you high-stakes witches seem to play by different rules.

    And I don’t think the call in the last hand was bad. I put a Villain on KQ in a hand I played this past weekend and I was wrong. Unlike you, I was so worried about that one specific hand that I let the Villain catch a runner-runner straight flush on me.

    In any case, the important question isn’t how much you lost over the session. Instead, I’d like to know how many Sklansky Bucks you earned?

    I hear Stars will let you trade in a million Sklansky Bucks for a stress ball. Pretty sweet…

  2. Klopzi,

    You’re correct that calling turn and folding river is bad. But I think that’s because calling the turn is bad, not because folding the river is bad. Just because I made one mistake doesn’t mean I have to compound it on the river. That was my thinking, anyway.

Comments are closed.