The Post-Flop Squeeze Play

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP ($1394)
CO ($1202.10)
Button ($2459.50)
Hero ($2030)
BB ($1224)
UTG ($3402.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9s, 8s.
UTG raises to $60, MP calls $60, 2 folds, Hero calls $50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($200) 6s, Kd, 4h (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $140, MP calls $140, Hero raises to $470, UTG folds, MP folds.

Final Pot: $950

This was based on a few reads. The pre-flop raiser, UTG, was a habitual continuation better. He nearly always fired at dry flops after raising pre-flop, no matter how obvious it was that his caller wasn’t going away. So even though he’s betting into two people here, I don’t think he has to have much, because this is a very tough board for anyone to hit.

The caller, MP, splashed around a lot. That is to say, he was loose for small bets. Thus, I definitely felt he could have a lot less than a K to call UTG’s bet. I certainly would call that bet with any pair in his shoes. The real question was whether he’d fold those pairs to a check-raise. If only he called, I was going to shove if I picked up 8 outs or more on the turn.

UTG tanked for a while before folding, so I think it’s plausible that he had something like AK or AA. Even with those hands, he can’t be happy about my check-raise. It’s not like I’m doing this with KJ, so it doesn’t much matter that he has an overpair. He beats a bluff and loses to a set, and this is a pretty random spot for me to bluff, which is exactly why I tried it.