This Might Be Why I Can’t Beat Tournaments

I think I might be trying a little too hard to make thin value bets, especially when I’ve already shown a lot of strength. People are generally pretty reluctant to make big river calls in tournaments, which means they either fold or call with a better hand and crush me. Here’s one from yesterday’s $300:

Poker Stars, $300 + $20 NL Hold’em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

UTG+2: 2,780
MP1: 3,255
MP2: 3,425
CO: 2,725
BTN: 2,730
SB: 3,120
Hero (BB): 3,325
UTG: 2,535
UTG+1: 3,135

Pre-Flop: (45) K K dealt to Hero (BB)
7 folds, SB raises to 90, Hero raises to 280, SB calls 190

Flop: (560) 2 Q 6 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 345, SB calls 345

Turn: (1,250) 7 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 800, SB calls 800

River: (2,850) 9 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,900 and is All-In, SB calls 1,695 and is All-In

Results: 6,240 Pot
SB showed Q 9 (two pair, Queens and Nines) and WON 6,240 (+3,120 NET)
Hero showed K K (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-3,120 NET)

Especially with the flush getting there on the river, I think he’s unlikely to call with worse. If he had a strong Q, he probably would have shoved the turn, and that’s the hand most likely to pay me off.

And from today’s Sunda Million:

Poker Stars, $500 + $30 NL Hold’em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

UTG+2: 4,670
MP1: 14,545
MP2: 8,350
CO: 9,185
Hero (BTN): 29,200
SB: 27,275
BB: 15,472
UTG: 16,100
UTG+1: 23,710

Pre-Flop: (900) 5 A dealt to Hero (BTN)
6 folds, Hero raises to 1,450, SB calls 1,150, BB folds

Flop: (3,500) A 2 J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (3,500) 5 (2 Players)
SB bets 2,400, Hero raises to 7,750, SB calls 5,350

River: (19,000) K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 19,000, SB calls 18,075 and is All-In

Results: 55,150 Pot
Hero showed 5 A (two pair, Aces and Fives) and LOST (-27,275 NET)
SB showed Q T (a straight, Ten to Ace) and WON 55,150 (+27,875 NET)

In retrospect, it’s clear he has a draw on the turn, as he’d almost certainly shove on me with a made hand that he thinks is good. Granted, almost every draw missed on the river, but what am I hoping he calls with? KJ is about the only plausible hand, and really I’m representing something stronger than that.

Well, if I can’t value bet thin, I should be bluffing, right?

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold’em Tournament, 150/300 Blinds, 25 Ante, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

BTN: 7,543
SB: 3,205
BB: 12,860
Hero (UTG): 9,477
UTG+1: 21,650
MP1: 5,147
MP2: 6,680
CO: 8,788

Pre-Flop: (650) A J dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to 802, 6 folds, BB calls 502

Flop: (1,954) 8 3 8 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (1,954) Q (2 Players)
BB bets 1,200, Hero calls 1,200

River: (4,354) Q (2 Players)
BB bets 1,800, Hero raises to 7,450 and is All-In, BB calls 5,650

Results: 19,254 Pot
BB showed Q T (a full house, Queens full of Eights) and WON 19,254 (+9,777 NET)
Hero showed A J (two pair, Queens and Eights) and LOST (-9,477 NET)

I was intending to call a river like this after calling the turn, but his bet sizing made me think he was trying value bet something like a mid-pair or an 8. The POS slow-rolled me on this one, too. Oh well, hopefully he will teach me a lesson.

Thin value bets still kick ass in cash games:

Full Tilt Poker, $10/$20 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $2,095
CO: $2,667.50
BTN: $1,900
SB: $2,000
BB: $257

Pre-Flop: 5 6 dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $45, CO calls $45, 3 folds

Flop: ($120) 3 6 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $40, Hero raises to $150, CO calls $110

Turn: ($420) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($420) 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $400, CO calls $400

Results: $1,220 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 5 6 (two pair, Sixes and Fives) and WON $1,217 (+$622 NET)
CO mucked A A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$595 NET)

I realize I played this pretty strangely on all streets, and I don’t really want to get into why, but on the river I was hoping to represent a bluff. I thought my opponent assumed I would have either a straight or air, and since a straight wasn’t too plausible, he might be inclined to call light. In retrospect, I think this was just a case of “OMGACES!!!!” That is to say, even a guy’s equity versus your range is the same with AA as it would be with like 99, he is more likely to call just because from the moment he was dealt those Aces he’d already assumed he was going to win the pot.