It’s not a pure whine, cuz I think the river bet is maybe a little interesting and worth discussing, but jeebus. This is with about 80 left in the FTP Sunday Mulligan, and my current stack good for top fifth of the remaining field.
Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold’em Tournament, 400/800 Blinds, 100 Ante, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter
Hero (CO): 28,280
BTN: 46,770
SB: 17,962
BB: 13,512
UTG: 23,127
UTG+1: 20,092
UTG+2: 18,183
MP1: 22,897
MP2: 28,000
Pre-Flop: (2,100) 9
K
dealt to Hero (CO)
5 folds, Hero raises to 2,180, BTN folds, SB calls 1,780, BB folds
Flop: (6,060) A T 4 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 3,500, SB calls 3,500
Turn: (13,060) A (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: (13,060) K
(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 22,500 and is All-In, SB calls 12,182 and is All-In
Results: 37,424 Pot
Results in white below:
Hero showed 9 K (two pair, Aces and Kings) and LOST (-17,962 NET)
SB showed J
Q (a straight, Ace high) and WON 37,424 (+19,462 NET)
OK so pre-flop most people are 3-betting most Aces that they want to play out of the SB. Not saying he can’t have one, but it’s discounted. Flop, again a lot of draws out there, he’s likely to check-raise with an Ace, but maybe not. Turn he’s probably not folding any pair, certainly not TT or better. And how often does he check trips on the river anyway?
So can I value bet? There’s enough missed draws to make him suspicious, stacks sizes are just right, he so rarely has me beat. In a cash game this would be an easy shove, but people are more conservative deep in tournaments.
But jesus f f s a gutshot?!?!
I might be wrong since I kinda ballparked it in mah noggin, but it looks like he made enough off the end in this instance for the flop call to be mathematically justified in hindsight. The amount he made from you on the river seemingly is enough to give the hand in sum a positive expectation. Obviously at the time his call was near-psychotic given the two broadway cards on the flop and his river check is another bullet point in the argument for having him committed.
Thanks for the comment, nougat. I guess he’s getting just barely the right implied + immediate odds to draw at a gutshot assuming he always gets a free river and always stacks me when he hits. As you probably realize, though, neither of those conditions is true. And yeah, shoving the river would definitely help him on the latter condition.