What’s Your Plan? Boated Up in a Blind Battle

25 thoughts on “What’s Your Plan? Boated Up in a Blind Battle”

1. Villain is presumably going to (correctly) assume both that Hero has a reasonably wide opening range in this spot and that this flop missed most of it. For that reason he could be calling down for value with Ax or maybe even a big Q, and could also be floating to bluff later. For the same reason I also wouldn’t rule out his just calling with his big value hands like 6x, Kx, or even a slow played big pair.

   I think I would bet the turn small enough to give the illusion of fold equity if we were being floated, but at the same time big enough that we are still building the pot enough for a decent sized river value bet should we get called. I think leading the turn for about 3800 works.

   • lol your suggestion of betting 3800 was not there when I started writing my recommendation to bet 3750 I didn’t just try to snipe your answer

   • I think it’s pretty unlikely villain will ever be shoving over any turn bet. What would he be representing?

2. I would bet 3750 on the turn. I think that he has a lot of hands which have lost value on this turn such as counterfeited small pair, I think that this small sizing is more successful inducing bluffs than a check who may think we have a plan to ck call with a hand as weak as A high. Along with this he is essentially never folding a 6 so we can bet the river bigger (70-80% of the pot) if he calls: if he raises turn I think we should call the turn and ck to continue inducing bluffs if he wants to go crazy with 33 or a floated QJ or something.

   Also the small turn sizing is very likely to in my opinion get looked up by A high or 77 and it gives him the opportunity to hero the big river bet if he feels especially heroic.

3. Based on hero’s notes on villain, he is savvy enough to know that we are opening a very wide range here and to realize that this is a very dry flop. I think we ought to be betting here but I like a small bet, about 1/3 pot. We would use the same sizing for a second barrel with our air and it is hard for villain to put us on a boat here. He will call with a very wide range of hands. Once he calls, we can shove the river for our remaining 14-15k.

   Our main concern once we see the turn should be “How can I get my whole stack in by the river?” And with such a dry board, I believe villain will call us down with a wide range and try to bluff catch a lot.

   The good news is that even a small turn bet gets us to have all of our stack in by the river so let’s get small value there and double up on the river!

4. I think the best line is whichever one that can convince him we don’t have a king or a six and that his Ax, Qx, or small pair are good (or good bluff catcher).
   Will he view further aggression as continuation of a bluff or as us really having it. Will he view a check as weakness or as us slow-playing?
   The king is a good bluff card, but he should know that if he is a good player, and should know that we know that.

   Here are some possible lines:
   a) bet about 5550 and if called then bet stack on river, which will be @ 13K into a pot of 23K.
   b) bet about 2550, hoping to get raised, but if called, bet stack on river, which will be a pot size bet (@16K)
   c) do either a or b, but if called then check on river
   d) bet large immeditately, @ 8 to 10K, leaving a small bet relative to the pot on river
   e) check and hope he bets, either calling or check-raising if he does. If he checks back then bet 10K on the river.

   I’m leaning towards b), because a small bet would look like we are betting the bluff card. I think it’s the bet most likely to be called or get raised. A larger bet might look too much like we are betting for value and setting up to get stacks in play. I think my second choice is to check to keep his whole range in play, but I would hate it for him to check back for pot control with Ax.

   • Why does a king look like a good bluff card?

     • Isn’t a K one of the value holdings you’re representing when you continuation bet the flop?
       And when another king comes isn’t it more likely you don’t have a king (if you have a wide range for continuation betting the flop)?
       True if he didn’t believe you on the flop he could of raised you, but couldn’t he also call the flop bet if he doesn’t believe you as well?

       • Yes to all three questions. What I was getting at is that, given that a second K makes it more likely that Hero doesn’t have the hand he was representing on the flop, why do you say it’s a good bluffing card for him?

         • I guess what I mean is that if you had a hand in the bottom of your range, something like 45 suited (non spades), wouldn’t this be a good card to fire a 2nd barrel as a bluff representing a value hand? Or maybe that’s a better line against a bad player who wouldn’t recognize the fact you are less likely to have a K (and thus you can bluff a wide range). Against a good player I guess it depends on leveling – he knows you know you can’t really rep a king and a bet is more likely to be value, but then if you know he knows that then you can bluff more in this spot, and thus he should open his range for calling/bluffing a turn bet.

5. I like check (bet/bluff) call shove or check (check) Bet 8000.
   Gives Villain best chance of making a good hand.
   It also gives Villain a chance to bluff 22-55’s he knows is beat on the turn.
   You make 4000$ vs ace high if you bet turn, almost as likely to make 8000$ if you wait to bet river.
   If Villain has a 6 he might just call 8000 (we miss out on 12000) instead of re-shove river but there is no guarantee he calls a shove if we bet small turn/ shove river.
   Against 77,88,99 which I actually don’t think V. has alot (doesn’t he re-raise pre) we make more by checking I think…maybe he calls a bet small turn/shove river maybe not but I think he always calls the 8000$. Plus the times he makes 777,888,999 we probably get it all.

   Having said that I think bet 4400 on the turn shove river is a good line as well.

   • Hi Eric, just wanted to say I think this is one of your best WYP responses yet! That’s not the same as saying I do (or don’t) agree with what you’re advocating, but i’s very well thought out and argued. Thanks for sharing it!

6. We want to target his Ax hands because those make up a fairly large proportion of range he called the flop with & this is a relatively good turn card for Ax so he should be inclined to call at least one more bet.

   We should bet in whatever way looks most like you are trying to get him off Ax, so he has an excuse to at least call turn to see what you do on the river.

   I’d probably go as big as half pot on the turn.

7. We don’t know how agressive this player is, but I would expect that he would be raising pre with a lot of his hands that are now bluff-catchers (many aces, pairs better than 66), especially because he covers Hero. So a check lets him bet a 6 or take a card for a spade draw (admittedly not a substantial part of his range). That seems at least as enticing as getting three streets of hero value from QT.

8. Your left with about 17,000 or so (SPR of about 1.5) I think we should check/call the turn. If villain doesn’t bet anything on the turn I think we should River shove.

   I feel it’s going to be hard to convince our opponent that we don’t have at least A high. I think our range on the Turn is going to look a lot like Kx, AA-77, Ax hands. We need to convince villain that we have A high type hands where villain can then bet or call his Ax, Kx, 6x, AA-77 type hands.

   I’m really not sure how to extract maximum value or even a little more value. It’s such a small range of hands that villain can bet/call with vs a small range of hands that we can call a bet and also stack off with.

   Maybe a really small bet to make it look like villain has some fold equity? Like 2,500? Not that it’s ideal to leave yourself less then 20bb’s.

9. I agree with most of the posters. Just less than half pot on turn, again on river.
   If we check here, it would look like we have Ax or a mid-pair trying to get to showdown. I don’t think villain would bluff very often.
   If we barrel, villain will have to call at least one bet with 6x, Ax or a mid-pair. Betting both turn and river at least gives him a chance to call twice.

   • I don’t necessarily agree with your conclusion, but I do question this, “If we check here, it would look like we have Ax or a mid-pair trying to get to showdown.” Surely Hero’s range, both real and perceived, is quite wide for raising pre-flop and betting this flop. Consequently, even if he bluffs the turn frequently relative to his value range, he would still be checking quite a few hands that are simply giving up after a failed c-bet.

10. I think it’s probably best to bet something along the lines you’ve set in your previous betting to like 3200 (2400 and then 2880, so 32-33 might be next and it may be small enough to induce) If he calls the turn bet I think it’s more likely he calls a river value-bet or even a shove than if you check-call the turn, bet/shove the river…This leaves you a nice close-to-pot sized bet-shove on the river that might appear a little blasty based on previous bets…?

11. This reminds me of over the weekend when in a live game I turned quads. You can really do no wrong.

    In this case c/r and c/c on the turn both look strong. If he checks back then you could get value out of a river bet, but he may not check back so why chance it. Betting the turn actually looks weaker than check/call and check/raise, so it’s just a matter of sizing. About 3500 feels right. If he raises the turn I would just call then check the river, giving him another chance to bluff the river (if that’s what he is doing). If he just calls I would bet out 5000 on the river, hopefully he bluff shoves. If it does get to showdown I would normally expect a chop, but since this is a WYP feature I doubt that happens.

12. I think the answer depends very much on how many floats versus bluff catchers villain has in his range (having flatted pre- (and not 3-bet) and called the flop).

    If we check, our EV from villain’s bluffs and bluff catchers is somewhere around one additional bet. E.g., if we check-call turn, he gives up on his bluffs on the river; or, if he checks behind turn, he calls river with his bluff catchers.

    If we bet small though, our EV from villain’s range may be quite a bit higher. Versus bluff catcher I think it is definitely higher because we could get paid off on turn and river. Versus floats, there is a chance that he gives up to a second barrel. But, with a small bet stacks are perfect for him to view a bluff shove as a legitimate option if he floated the flop with the intention of taking it away on a later street. Here, I am making a lot of the possibility that he might have difficulty changing his “float flop and take it away later plan” on the turn, especially when we give him the c/r all-in bluff option. But, even if you are not sure about this, I think he only has to shove with his floats a relatively small amount of the time for betting to be better than checking (back of the envelope ~ 1/5-1/6). Add to this betting the turn K looks pretty bluffy, as we are less likely to have one. It is BvB so we get less credit. And, our bet sizing keeps our range very wide. There is a lot in favour of a bet.

    However, he may have 3-bet some bluff catchers (Ax and pp’s, say) pre- so his flop calling range consists of a lot more floats than bluff catchers, in which case he would have to be bluff-shoving quite a bit more frequently to make betting more profitable. So, getting the one additional bet through checking would be best (but maybe less fun).

13. I changed my answer a few times. So I will say raise smaller pre and wait for Friday’s results.

    • Lazy bastard! I was looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

14. 4444 to induce bluff shove and of course call a shove on turn, shove any river AINEC IMO
    he will hero call u a lot of times or spew/bluf shove when u bet under 1/2 pot on turn

15. Most of Villain’s range on the turn consists of bluff catchers and bluffs. We don’t need to worry about optimizing against his value hands anyway because the chips will get in regardless.

    Betting the turn, even small IMO, is going to fold out a lot of his bluffs.

    Villain’s bluff catchers aren’t super strong. He’s not going to be comfortable paying off two decent-sized bets.

    I think checking the turn is best so Villain bluffs more often. He’s going to bluff almost 100% of the time when he has a bluffing hand – he called the flop for a reason. 8)

    Against his bluff catchers we can bomb the river and hope to get looked up.

    We should also bomb the river when the turn goes check, bet, call because Villain isn’t likely enough to bluff the river. We should just hope he picks up something he’s willing to call with.

16. I’m really new to your website and really enjoy it.
    I’m also new to this kind of strategic thinking and would like to give it a try. I hope I’m not completely out of it !

    In this situation I first wondered about his range which I thought would be pretty large and we don’t know much about him.
    I can see him on small pairs he wishes not to pay much to see a cheap flop with, let’s say 3-3+ to T-T. He would reraise with T-T+ more often than simply call.

    I also ignore hands like A-Ts+ and A-Jo+ which would make him raise, in my opinion.

    I would leave him with K-x, Q-x, 10-J+ and small pairs.

    The flop can have hit his hands with sixes or Kings. For his smaller pairs, it’s not a so bad flop. There is a low low chance that the 6s hit our range while the K is more likely.

    Our bet on the flop is a classic c-bet after betting preflop. It doesn’t bring much information to him in my opinion. Having the red spade displayed makes him know you are not a no-brainer and that a bluff is also likely to happen from you. Calling here doesn’t give him much information and raising would have been in my opinion, the best way for him to get more information on your hand but would have increased volatility.

    The K hitting the turn is one of the scariest cards for him as it’s completely hitting your range and crushing his.
    At first before doing that little thinking, I thought checking as the best way to induce a bluff from his part. But now, seeing the number of hands in your range including a K… I really don’t know what to think about that move.
    If we check, is he bold enough to bet ? He seems to know what he is doing. If he bets after our check, a simple call from us would again show a lot of strength.

    I also wondered about our image, if he doesn’t know us we can play the scared one who checks on the turn seeing this scary K after a failed c-bet.

    I imagine the action quite like that :
    – We bet, he is scared of us because it’s our second well-sized bet in a row, the K is totally in our range, and we’ve got a little red spade. I don’t see him calling with less than a 6 or a K which should be quite rare.

    So he folds.

    I don’t see this move as the most paying one.

    – We check, he can be induced in thinking we tried to adopt the orphan flop and raises us to force us out of the flop.
    He can also think that this is a slow-play with the best hand and won’t bet either which is not that bad because the last card can bring another 6 or the last K (6% chance, I know…) or bring him a bluffing idea.

    So for me, seeing the increased chances of a weak image in the check scenario, I would check.

    Phew, longer than expected !

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