I’m posting three hands tonight, all of them against the same Villain. I’d just stacked him for the second time, and after that he bought in for just 30 BB’s, won a sizable pot, and then started donking a lot of flops. In the first two, I made some biggish folds on the river. Despite that, or in fact because of it, I think that I ought to have folded the third as well. I’ll talk about why when we get to it:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
Hero ($3484)
BB ($455.25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7s, Kh.
Hero raises to $20, BB calls $10.
Flop: ($40) 2d, 3d, Kd (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30.
Turn: ($100) Qh (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80.
River: ($260) Qc (2 players)
BB bets $325.25 (All-In), Hero folds.
Final Pot: $585.25
Results in white below:
BB doesn’t show.
Outcome: BB wins $585.25.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
Hero ($3373.50)
BB ($564.75)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Jh, 3d.
Hero raises to $20, BB calls $10.
Flop: ($40) 8s, Jc, 6s (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30.
Turn: ($100) Td (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80.
River: ($260) As (2 players)
BB bets $220, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $480
Results in white below:
BB doesn’t show.
Outcome: BB wins $480.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
Hero ($3273)
BB ($664.25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 3d, As.
Hero raises to $20, BB calls $10.
Flop: ($40) 7s, 6s, 8h (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30.
Turn: ($100) Ah (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80.
River: ($260) Ad (2 players)
BB bets $220, Hero calls $220.
Final Pot: $700
Results in white below:
BB has 9c Th (straight, ten high).
Hero has 3d As (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: BB wins $700.
Of the three hands, this is the spot where it is by far the hardest for Villain to represent a legitimate hand. Only a really big hand like a flopped straight or set or a really unlikely hand like rivered trips could go three barrels for value here. Any two pair he flopped is now counterfeited. Plus it’s pretty obvious I have at least a pair, and every draw missed. In theory, he ought to bluff in “obviously” bad spots so that I can’t make hero folds like this. In practice, after I’ve folded twice in similar spots very recently, I think it’s unlikely he bluffs here. And despite having trips, I don’t beat anything he’s value betting. I told myself I’d fold if he shoved, but when he didn’t shove, I tilt-called him. Pwned.
It’s cool, though. A few hands later, I got it in with middle pair and a flush draw on the turn against his top pair and spiked to bust him for the third and final time.
Couldn’t he also have/be representing A6/A7/A8 on the third hand (unless you were including those hands in “rivered trips”)? I agree that it’s probably a fold given the history unless he’s a real maniac, although I’m sure I would have called as well. About the flop call, would you consider it standard (against this villain) or light? Would you call without the As?
If he was bluffing any of these hands I would guess it was the second one. The board got scary enough to turn a pair into a bluff while also potentially discouraging value bets.
I agree with Bond2King. However I see the strong posibility in case of hand #1 and hand #2
Let’s start from beginnig.
After losing stack twice he switched gears -started donking a lot of flops which I assume is not irrational behavior but a part of his exploaitive strategy.
We do not know if his donking range is polarized.We know his new donking range is very wide atleast.
After your flop call he has tendency to continue to keep pressure with “wet” boards.
I do not see just only polarization(value vs bluff) in his new strategy like your analysis seems to suggest.
Bet fired on the flop,turn, and river usually suggest such polarization -triple barrel or extreme strength for 6-max and cash player.
I do know what is the priority of for strategy on turn and river to complement his flop strategy.
He knows that you are good cash player- ability to read “ranges’ and make discipline folds,etc.
Misrepresenting his range on turn AND river will be very complement strategy in HU against good or very good cash player.
Below is the most vital info for me about game flow and presure on stacks.Well.. You flinched to call TP in 40-50BB situation.There is possibility.
“A few hands later, I got it in with middle pair and a flush draw on the turn against his top pair and spiked to bust him for the third and final time”
He does not flinch to call you with TP and ~100BB effective stacks.
I assume he will does not flinch to exploit you with any TPNK in case of hand #1 in 40 BB in context of switching gears not permanent strategy.