Some of you may have heard of the Yeti Theorem, named for the 2+2 poster who first postulated it. The theorem states that when the pre-flop raiser 3-bets a check-raise on a paired flop, he can very rarely stand a 4-bet. Consider if you raise pre-flop and bet a 993 flop, how would you respond to a check-raise with the following holdings:
1) TT
2) 22
3) 33
4) 89
5) AK
With (1) and (4) you aren’t going to fold, but you are probably just going to call the check-raise. You aren’t usually going to 3-bet, because although you likely have the best hand, it’s difficult to get action from worse hands. With (2) and (5) you might fold, call, or 3-bet, but if you 3-bet, you’d need a pretty incredible read to call a 4-bet. Only when you flop a full house and think your opponent often has trips are you likely to 3-bet with a hand that can stand a 4-bet.
Anyway, I decided to mess around with this today:
Full Tilt Poker – No Limit Hold’em Cash Game – $5/$10 Blinds – 5 Players – (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $1,659.00
BB: $980.00
UTG: $2,026.00
Hero (CO): $1,045.00
BTN: $1,291.00
Preflop: Hero is dealt A
A
(5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35.00, 2 folds, BB calls $25.00
Flop: ($75) 3 6
6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50.00, BB raises to $100.00, Hero raises to $250.00, BB raises to $500.00, Hero raises all-in to $1,010.00, BB calls all-in for $445.00
Uncalled bet of $65.00 returned to Hero
Turn: ($1965) 5 (2 Players – 2 All-In)
River: ($1965) Q
(2 Players – 2 All-In)
Pot Size: $1,965.00 ($3 Rake)
BB had 6 A (three of a kind, Sixes) and WON (+$982.00)
Hero had A A (two pair, Aces and Sixes) and LOST (-$980.00)
Bah. The Villain was a regular and I was hoping my 3-bet would look weaker than a call. With a a pair as big as AA, I probably can get action from some worse hands, especially if he’s familiar with the Yeti Theorem. But I forgot what a nit asshole he is! I can probably just fold to his sketchy 4-bet, though I really really should probably just ditch the FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome), call the flop, and find a fold on the river. At least he didn’t hit and run me this time, as he usually does whenever he wins a big pot.
I got cold-decked like this a few times this session and probably would have lost money no matter what, but I made some stubborn calls and lost more than I needed to, which was frustrating.
Interesting…
I’ve read about the Yeti Theorem before, but I’m glad you posted more analysis of it. Although it doesn’ work for me either.
I lost 2 huge hands this week on paired boards like this.
One: A8 on a A8x8x board…obv < AA.
Two: QQ on a AQA flop…obv < AQ. WTF! I could've gotten away easy both times- but I hate leaving value on the table. Nobody is folding an 8x hand or an Ax hand on these boards, but UL for me I gave them both free rides to value town.
Care to post the hands? I could see slowing down with 8’s full on the river depending on what the other cards were and what the Villain’s plausible holdings were, but I’m always happy to get it in with QQ on AQA flop. Plenty of people are never folding any Ace.
Yeti theorem my ass. You were just pissed you got min check raised.
Oh and what an incredible douchebag that guy is for practically min 4 betting.
I’ll post them when I get back from work. I don’t think I got all my chips in until the river in both hands. I believe I made a value bet, and then faced a raise both times- in which I shoved for value….I just couldn’t see villain having the nuts both times. Certainly not in the QQ hand when he was holding the case Q, and 1 of 2 possible Aces.
Table ‘Henan’ 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: tito7254 ($52.90 in chips)
Seat 2: coachalan ($86.90 in chips)
Seat 3: RvrMonkey ($148.90 in chips)
Seat 4: Mungos1981 ($49.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Thois ($141.10 in chips)
RvrMonkey: posts small blind $0.50
Mungos1981: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RvrMonkey [Qd Qc]
Mungos1981 said, “i like your mom too”
Thois: folds
tito7254: folds
coachalan: calls $1
Mungos1981 said, “so what”
RvrMonkey: raises $4 to $5
Thois said, “i like your sister”
Mungos1981 is connected
Mungos1981: folds
-tui- joins the table at seat #6
coachalan: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [Ad Qs Ac]
RvrMonkey: checks
coachalan: checks
*** TURN *** [Ad Qs Ac] [2h]
RvrMonkey: checks
coachalan: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ad Qs Ac 2h] [7h]
RvrMonkey: bets $6
tito7254 said, “what an idiot”
coachalan: raises $18 to $24
RvrMonkey: raises $100 to $124
coachalan: calls $57.90 and is all-in
Thois said, “dont worry he is dead money anyways”
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RvrMonkey: shows [Qd Qc] (a full house, Queens full of Aces)
coachalan: shows [Ah Qh] (a full house, Aces full of Queens)
coachalan collected $172.80 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $174.80 | Rake $2
Board [Ad Qs Ac 2h 7h]
Seat 1: tito7254 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: coachalan (button) showed [Ah Qh] and won ($172.80) with a full house, Aces full of Queens
Seat 3: RvrMonkey (small blind) showed [Qd Qc] and lost with a full house, Queens full of Aces
Seat 4: Mungos1981 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Thois folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Oh yeah stick it in there for sure, he’ll pay off with 7’s full, 2’s full, maybe even trip Aces way more often than he has Aces full. But your turn check is criminal.
The other one…
POKERSTARS GAME #11888563517: HOLD’EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) – 2007/09/05 – 15:07:55 (ET)
Table ‘Volpecula III’ 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: beta77 ($108.35 in chips)
Seat 2: robbie1122 ($92.35 in chips)
Seat 3: RvrMonkey ($151.55 in chips)
Seat 4: HerrPferd ($101.95 in chips)
Seat 5: GA book fund ($290.10 in chips)
Seat 6: tot1712 ($103 in chips)
tot1712: posts small blind $0.50
beta77: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RvrMonkey [As 8s]
robbie1122: raises $1 to $2
RvrMonkey: calls $2
HerrPferd: folds
GA book fund: calls $2
tot1712: raises $5 to $7
beta77: folds
robbie1122: calls $5
RvrMonkey: calls $5
GA book fund: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d 7c Ah]
tot1712: checks
robbie1122: bets $3
RvrMonkey: raises $11 to $14
tot1712: calls $14
robbie1122: folds
*** TURN *** [8d 7c Ah] [8c]
tot1712: checks
RvrMonkey: checks
*** RIVER *** [8d 7c Ah 8c] [Th]
tot1712: bets $37
RvrMonkey: raises $93.55 to $130.55 and is all-in
tot1712: calls $45 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RvrMonkey: shows [As 8s] (a full house, Eights full of Aces)
tot1712: shows [Ad Ac] (a full house, Aces full of Eights)
tot1712 collected $216 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $219 | Rake $3
Board [8d 7c Ah 8c Th]
Seat 1: beta77 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: robbie1122 folded on the Flop
Seat 3: RvrMonkey showed [As 8s] and lost with a full house, Eights full of Aces
Seat 4: HerrPferd folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 5: GA book fund (button) folded before Flop
Seat 6: tot1712 (small blind) showed [Ad Ac] and won ($216) with a full house, Aces full of Eights
Nice play. I found the hand is easier to follow like this:
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/2835
You can embed the visual right in your posts so that it’s easier to understand.
Thanks, that looks neat. Do you know if it will be blocked by people’s work filters? I have that problem with the CR converter images.