I wasn’t feeling real well today, so I only played three of the majors: the $200 million guarantee on Stars, the $500 million guarantee on FTP, and $200 200K guarantee on UB. I ended up cashing kinda well in all three, and came 36th out of more than 2000 on FTP. Obviously I both played and ran pretty well to get there, but I ended up busting with KK versus AA, which was more than a little annoying, especially since I had just turned down an offer to buy 20% of my action for more than what I ended up winning.
The play I’m probably most proud of was snapping off a check-raise bluff from 2+2’er luckychewy when we were both among the chipleaders near the bubble. We each had more than 50K, and blinds were 300/600. I raised to about 1900 with AJo in late position, and he called from his BB. The flop was very dry, like K83 rainbow or something. He checked, I bet 3000, and he raised to 9500. This is pretty much the best possible board for me to bet at if I don’t have a pair, so AJ is actually one of the better hands in my flop betting range here, and I expected luckychewy to know that I’d often be bluffing the flop. This deep, he’s probably going to play top pair for pot control out of position, so I didn’t really feel like he was representing much on the flop, either. I also didn’t expect him to bluff again on the turn, since my call could easily be something like AK that isn’t going anywhere. We checked it down, and sure enough he had T6s for no pair, no draw.
Might be better to bet the turn after lucky checks it to you. Are you more afraid of a second check raise or a 6+ outer on the river?
Yes, I think betting turn is definitely better. For some reason at the time I was afraid he was going to check-raise, but I have no idea why, because in retrospect, I think he’s pretty much never going for a double check-raise, certainly not enough to warrant giving him a 12% shot at winning the pot or maybe.