Even though it’s not from a tournament, this hand that I played last night illustrates a key concept from my recent article, “The Last Bet“, which appears in the April issue of 2+2 Magazine. In this hand, I flop two overcards and a flush draw against a somewhat short-stacked opponent on a very dry board. Here’s the hand, and then I’ll discuss why I played it the way I did:
Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
UTG ($167.40)
MP ($706)
Hero ($739.90)
Button ($257.50)
SB ($430.20)
BB ($642.60)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Jh, Kh.
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, Button calls $14, 2 folds.
Flop: ($34) 3h, 3s, 2h (2 players)
Hero bets $18, Button calls $18.
Turn: ($70) Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $44, Hero raises to $202, Button folds.
Final Pot: $316
After calling my pre-flop raise, my opponent has only about $240 left. On this flop, I am willing to get all in with him. If that happens, I should have nearly 50% equity in the pot, but I’m not likely to have more than that, which means I’d pretty much always prefer to win without a showdown.
So, I need to structure the betting such that I make the last bet. I could check planning to raise, but in that event my opponent will likely bet $22-$32, and an all in or virtual all-in raise from me would be a weak-looking overbet that would get looked up by the sorts of middle pairs that I am trying to fold out.
Stack sizes look good for a bet/3-bet line, provided I size the first bet intelligently. With $34 in the pot, my usual continuation bet would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $22-$32. However, if I make a bet like that and my opponent raises, he will likely be committing himself to the pot, which is what I do not want. So this time I make a smaller than average continuation bet of $18, barely half the pot. I am hoping my opponent will raise somewhere in the range of $55-$70 to go, setting me up nicely to shove over the top.
Unfortunately, he is not so accomodating, and just calls my bet. Had all the money gone in on the flop, I would expect my opponent to hold a medium pair (larger than 3’s but smaller than J’s, meaning that both of my overcards would be live) the majority of the time and occasionally a flush draw (which would be very good for me, unless it was the nut flush draw, which would then be very bad for me). His range for calling my small bet is much wider, however, and probably includes some unpaired hands with which he decided to peel given the very good price I offered him.
The turn brings an offsuit Q. Although this doesn’t pair me nor give me as good of a bluffing opportunity as an A would, it may nonetheless be a scare card for my opponent. With only one card to come, however, the value of my big draw has been cut in half. I’m less excited about getting all of the money in now, as I’ll have only about 25% equity, though the additional money in the pot pads that somewhat.
At this point, I’m still looking for ways to make my opponent fold, but I’m more than happy to settle for a free card. So I check, figuring I can either see the river for free or raise depending on what my opponent chooses to do. He bets $44 into a $70, leaving $200 behind. It’s not the world’s most confident bet, but truthfully I was planning on check-raising pretty much any bet, so his sizing didn’t really influence my decision. Once I call his bet, there will be $155 in the pot, and he has only about $200 behind, so I just use the bet pot button to effectively commit myself to the pot.
This line looks quite a bit like a flush draw, and against a more intelligent player I would play this differently, maybe just fire at the flop and turn. But a more intelligent player would also probably have a full stack in front of him and wouldn’t bet the turn unless he had either a bluff or a hand that could call a check-raise. This particular opponent thought for a few seconds and then folded.
The important thing here is that I didn’t just say to myself, “Oooh, that’s a good flop, but I want a fold, so I’ll hit the bet pot button.” Instead, I looked at the size of my opponent’s stack, considered how the hand was likely to play out, and gave myself the opportunity to put in the last bet with my semi-bluff.