On Thursday I final tabled both the $160 double shoot-out and the $30 rebuy WSOP satellites but couldn’t seal the deal, finisihing 5/81 in the shoot-out and 7/169 in the rebuy. These winner-take-all satellites are really brutal. Although theoretically they do give an edge to the best players in the tournament relative to tournaments with a flatter payout, they are still less profitable than satellites that pay multiple seats because they have no bubble.
I can’t even say that I ran bad, because I didn’t. My play at the double shoot-out final table was less than stellar, but even in the rebuy, where I don’t feel like I made any major mistakes, it just wasn’t in the cards.
For the featured hands from Thursday, I’m going to look at two where I induced bluffs with medium-strength hands. This is generally what you want to do on a dry board (one where you aren’t particularly concerned about giving free cards) when you figure to have the best hand but can’t ever expect worse hands to call.
In the first, with blinds 300/600/50, it folded around to me in the SB with a stack of 24K. With an eye on the BB’s stack of 14K, I raised to 1800 with KQo. Against a better opponent, I might not play KQ with these stack sizes because I would have a difficult decision if he moved all in, but against this player, I felt I could fold comfortably if he jammed.
He called, and the flop came out AK8r. Given that I raised pre-flop, I can’t expect to get action from worse hands very often on this board if I bet. However, I think I’m likely to have the best hand, as most players will move all in pre-flop with an Ace in this situation, especially if they have a good one. I checked, and my opponent bet 1200 into a pot of more than 3600. I have an easy call here.
The turn brought another 8, completing the rainbow. I checked again, and my opponent bet 4800 into a pot of about 6000. This is a much stronger bet than his last, which doesn’t really make sense. If his hand really did get much stronger, it would be because he had an 8, but most people won’t bet bottom pair against a pre-flop raiser on that flop. Also, although they should, most players won’t play trips so fast when I’ve shown so much weakness so far. An Ace can’t really expect a worse hand to call this big bet unless it is a big Ace, which I would expect to move all in pre-flop. With a King or a weak Ace, most players will check behind on this turn and look to call or maybe value bet the river. So the most likely hand for my opponent was still a bluff, and I called.
The river was a harmless 6, I checked again, and the BB finally gave up his bluff, checking behind with his QTo and allowing me to rake a substantial pot with a hand that would have won just 3600 had I bet the flop.
The second hand occurred in the next orbit, when I raised JTs from MP1 to 1475, and the SB called, leaving himself about 16K chips behind. From a good player, this call out of position for a substantial portion of his stack would be very strong, but there is so much loose and weak play in this tournament that I was not prepared to give him too much credit.
The flop came out KJ2r (no hearts, which is what I was looking for), creating very much the same situation as in the last hand. Most players don’t call raises with Kings in their hand, especially not when out of position. It certainly wasn’t impossible for my opponent to have something like KJ or KQ, but I considered them unlikely, so unless I ran into a slow-played big pair or a strangely played AK, I figured to have the best hand. Again, however, the board is dry enough and scary enough that most worse hands will fold to a bet. Moreover, even an A is not a particularly scary card for me, because this is almost as unlikely as a K given my opponent’s flat call out of position. He checked to me, and I checked behind.
The turn brought a 3s, putting a flush draw on board. The SB bet 2400, or about 2/3 of the pot, and I called. Raising here would allow the SB to play perfectly, giving up his bluffs and probably never folding anything I beat. Although it was possible he had a flush draw, it wasn’t too likely, and even if he did have one, he would have less than a 20% chance of hitting it on the river.
The river was another harmless 3, and the SB bet 5400 into a pot of about 8600. I called, he showed Ah6h, and I raked a 20K pot.
You can only get so in poker relying on ridiculously loose play from your opponents and cooler situations where you get AA vs KK or something similar. Your ability to find value in situations where others cannot is what separates you from the rest of the field and makes you a winner.