Edit: Yeah, I’m an idiot. It was late when I posted this, and I did in fact calculate my pre-flop equity rather than my flop equity. I’m actually a 2:1 dog here, which is more what I expected. Thanks to qanda201 for pointing it out in the comments. I thought it seemed too good to be true.
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 (t32863)
MP1 (t13444)
MP2 (t17933)
MP3 (t4420)
CO (t19270)
Button (t11849)
Hero (SB) (t20290)
BB (t16994)
UTG (t11219)
Hero’s M: 13.53
Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K, 2, 3
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t2500, 1 fold, MP2 calls t2500, 3 folds, Hero calls t2000, BB calls t1500
Flop: (t10000) 5, 10, J (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t10000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t17790 (All-In), BB calls t4494 (All-In)
Turn: (t38988) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t38988) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t38988
Results:
Hero had K, K, 2, 3 (flush, Jack high).
BB had 5, 7, Q, 5 (full house, fives over eights).
Outcome: BB won t38988
Shows what I know about this game. I was embarassed to even post this because I felt like I played this bad and got my money in bad, but turns out I’m a pretty substantial favorite:
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KsKc2h3h | 66.22% | 558,343 | 719,281 | 0 | 322,512 | 864 |
5h7sQs5s | 33.78% | 205,548 | 366,727 | 0 | 215,856 | 864 |
My reasoning at the time was that he was either on a draw, in which case I had some of his outs and my Kings were good, or that most of my draws were live if he did have a made hand. Hard to say how I’d perform against his full range here, but I guess I get to write this one off to a bad beat!
Edit: Here’s the actual flop equity
820 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KsKc2h3h | 37.56% | 278 | 278 | 0 | 144 | 0 |
5h7sQs5s | 62.44% | 482 | 542 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I’m not sure I understand the equity calc. How can you possibly win the high 2x as often (719,281:366,727), with just ten outs and a backdoor straight draw? Are you sure this calc isn’t just the preflop equity?
That’s exactly what happened, good catch! I’ve edited the post.
Yeah, I don’t know anything about that game, but it’s hard to believe you’re a 2:1 favorite to make a better hi by the river.