by Andrew Brokos
Originally published in the June 2009 issue of 2+2 Magazine
This month, I want to unpack some concepts that came up in a discussion of a hand posted in 2+2’s High Stakes Multi-Table Tournament forum. This concept relates to the relationship between hand-reading and other facets of poker skill. Before I say more about it, though, let me give you the context for the discussion.
A high-stakes tournament player started a thread about a hand he played at the final table of the ₤20,000 EPT London High Roller tournament. His opponent was another 2+2 regular who plays mostly high-stakes cash games. Blinds were 5K/10K with a 1K ante, the table was 5-handed, and the effective stacks were about 300K.
The Hero raised to 27K with A9s under the gun, and the Villain called from the Big Blind. The flop came AK8, all different suits, and both players checked. The turn was a 5 and put a second diamond on the board. Villain bet 37K, and Hero called. The river was an off-suit 4, Villain bet 65K, and Hero stopped the action here, asking the 2+2 forum what was the correct play.
Blatant Pot Control
In my response, I suggested that the Hero had put himself in a very tough spot with his flop check. An AK8 rainbow flop is far more likely to connect with a pre-flop raiser’s hand than with a pre-flop caller’s hand. Thus, it is an excellent flop for the Hero to bluff at when he has a hand with very little showdown value. In fact, Villain probably expects Hero to bet this flop virtually every time that Hero holds a hand that can’t expect to win the pot unimproved at showdown.
By not betting, Hero actually reveals a good deal of information about his hand. In my opinion, a check announces that Hero has a one-pair hand that is probably best but that can’t stand heavy action. He is looking to play pot control and show his hand down relatively cheaply.
This isn’t to say that Hero’s hand is completely face-up. He might have an Ace with a weak kicker, he might have paired the King, or he might hold a large pocket pair such as QQ or JJ (I imagine he would bet with a smaller pair like 77). There are important differences between these types of hands, but when Villain bets the turn and river, they are all almost exclusively bluff-catchers. In other words, Villain is rarely betting a worse hand for value, so if Hero calls with any of the above, it will largely be in the hopes of catching a bluff.
This is the source of Hero’s dismay in the posted hand. Always calling with A9 in this spot would be exploitable, as Villain could give up on all bluffs and bet all better hands for value. Always folding A9 is exploitable, as Villain could bluff Hero out of the pot a huge percentage of the time. Because his hand is relatively face up as one pair, Hero needs to call some percentage of the time to catch bluffs and fold some percentage of the time to dodge value bets. As it stands, Hero does not know what Villain’s bluff frequency is on the river and consequently does not know often he needs to call to prevent himself from being exploited by a river bluff.
I call this concept blatant pot control. To a smart opponent, Hero’s actions have revealed his hand range to consist almost exclusively of medium-strength hands. Against less observant or capable players, there is nothing wrong with this, and it is in fact often a good way to play. However, giving away so much information to a tough opponent is a dangerous proposition.
If Hero had some specific knowledge about Villain’s tendencies that he wanted to exploit, then checking the flop makes a lot of sense. For example, if Villain were an over-aggressive maniac, then checking and calling down would be good because Villain can be expected to bluff far more than is optimal. Similarly, if Villain were a passive opponent who never made multi-barrel bluffs, then checking the flop, calling the turn, and folding the river might be the best way to exploit him. But against an opponent with unknown but presumably good bluffing frequencies, checking puts Hero in a difficult spot.
Profitable Betting Lines
I offered this reasoning as an argument for betting the flop. Since Hero will so often be betting the flop as a bluff, A9 is far stronger relative to his betting range than it is relative to his checking range.
Another poster asked if there was really anything wrong with putting oneself in the spot of having to guess at Villain’s bluffing frequency. Isn’t poker always about trying to get a read on an opponent’s range? If Hero were to bet, wouldn’t he then be setting himself up to play guessing games if he gets check-raised?
Poker is a battle for information, but knowing is only half the battle. In The Mathematics of Poker, Chen and Ankenman demonstrate that when one player’s hand is known to both players, then that player is automatically in a –EV situation. From a game theoretical perspective, the best he can do is determine a calling frequency that will minimize his losses. Exactly how much he stands to lose is a function of the pot size, but unless he is aware of and prepared to exploit a specific mistake that his clairvoyant opponent will make, then the player with an exposed hand is going to lose money.
It’s hardly revolutionary to suggest that turning one’s hand face-up during a poker game is not going to be a winning proposition. And in the posted hand, Hero’s cards are not exactly face-up. Still, there is something to be said for building your game around betting lines that conceal more than they reveal and that force one’s opponent to do the guessing.
In this example, if Villain checks and calls the flop, both players check the turn, and then Villain checks again on the river, he is the one forced to take a blatant pot control line. His range is probably similar to what Hero’s is when Hero checks the flop: mostly Ax, Kx, and pocket pairs. But I would argue that in this case, Hero is the one in the +EV situation not just when he holds A9 but with his entire range. He has more information about his opponent’s range than his opponent has about his and consequently he has the ability to profit from the river bet.
In other words, in two nearly identical situations, featuring two players in the same positions with the same pre-flop ranges and the same community cards and the same number of bets going into the pot, one of those situations is +EV for the Hero and one for the Villain depending on how the betting goes. If Hero bets flop, checks turn, and bets river, he is in a profitable situation. His opponent has given him information and also given up control over when and how money goes into the pot.
However, if Hero checks flop, calls turn, and finds himself facing a bet on the river, then he is the one who has given up information and control and now faces an unprofitable situation. This is a choice not about how to play top pair with a medium kicker but about how Hero ought to play most of his range most of the time.
Of course Hero could check this flop 100% of the time and maintain deception about his hand as well. However, he would be giving up a lot of value in doing so for the sake of protecting a small portion of his range. This is a flop that connects much better with the pre-flop raiser’s range than with the pre-flop caller’s range. Consequently, the pre-flop raiser will profit from betting at it whether or not he actually hit it. When he has nothing, he’ll often fold out better hands. And when he has A9, he can reasonably expect to be called or raised (as a bluff) by worse because so much of his range consists of bluffs.
The value of a hand is determined not only by its relationship to the board and to an opponent’s range but also by its relationship to other hands in your own range. Strange as it may seem, Hero actually increases the value of his hand by betting, assuming that he would also often bet this flop as a bluff. Villain is forced to play against Hero’s entire range, and because A9 is stronger relative to Hero’s betting range than it is relative to his checking range, it gains in value when Hero bets.
Betting has the added advantage of putting Hero in control of the pot size. In all likelihood, if Hero bets Villain will check to him on the turn and river. If Hero checks, however, Villain now has the option of betting the turn and river and thus has more ability to decide when and how bets go into the pot.
Conclusion
In card rooms that allow it, players will sometimes expose a card in their hand for the purpose of inducing a bluff. For instance, against an overly aggressive opponent, a player might check an A [diamond] 3 [spade] 5 [spade] 7 [diamond] 9 [spade] board and reveal and A [heart] in his hand. Having thus showed his opponent that he cannot possibly have a straight or flush, he will then call a bet, expecting this aggressive opponent to bluff a high percentage of the time.
This works when you know that an opponent will make a particular mistake and you have a plan for exploiting it. Against better opponents, however, you should avoid giving them opportunities to play close to optimally, because they often will. Before you decide how to play a particular hand, think about how a multi-street betting line will influence who has control over future betting streets and what information will be available to you and your opponent.