A Critical Bet Sizing Tell

Let me say up front that I do this whole “check and figure it out” thing entirely too often against good players, and I have to stop. That said, in this case something about his turn bet led me to conclude that I ought to call the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2000.30)
Hero (UTG) ($2000)
MP ($1543.50)
CO ($1734.80)
Button ($2358.50)
SB ($2077.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, A
Hero bets $33, 2 folds, Button raises to $106, 2 folds, Hero raises to $266, Button calls $160

Flop: ($556) 6, A, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($556) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $290, Hero calls $290

River: ($1136) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1801 (All-In), Hero calls $1442.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $4021 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, 9 (high card, Ace).
Hero had 5, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $4018

Let me kick this one to you, dear readers. Can you figure out what it is about the sizing of his turn bet that led me to call his overbet shove on the river?

4 thoughts on “A Critical Bet Sizing Tell”

  1. Is it that the turn bet seems like valuetown, so why would he not try to value-town you if he really had the goods?

    He probably wouldn't put you on 3-5 or pocket 4's, so the river wouldn't have helped you in his eyes.

  2. Fuel/Scaz,

    Not a bad guess and possibly relevant, but I think that's far too nebulous to treat it with much importance without a prior read.

    Kirch is on the right track. The really important thing here is that he could have easily sized his turn bet so that his river shove would not be an overbet.

    Think about it: if you have a monster hand, would you rather structure the betting so that you have to overbet the pot to get all in on the river, or so that you can make a pot-sized all in?

    A turn bet in the neighborhood of 375-400 would not be excessively large and would set up a pot-sized river shove nicely. Instead, Villain bets an amount that forces him to overbet the river if he's going to shove it. Given that I've represented a moderate strength hand all the way, he ought to be trying to give me enticing odds if he's betting for value.

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