BB ($9000.50)
UTG ($16025)
MP ($5309)
Hero (CO) ($10269)
Button ($10000)
SB ($10391)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A
, J
2 folds, Hero bets $175, 1 fold, SB calls $150, 1 fold
Flop: ($400) J
, 8, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($400) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $269, SB raises to $1025, Hero calls $756
River: ($2450) K
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1669, 1 fold
Total pot: $2450 | Rake: $3
A big part of my reason for checking the flop is that I so rarely check back a flush draw, and this is one of the best flush draws to check (ie also having top pair to go along with it, so that the fold equity of a semi-bluff isn’t worth much to you). This means that when the flush comes in on the turn, my opponent is going to think I can’t have it.
So, OK, I get the raise I wanted, which is probably a bluff but could be two pair or a set that’s comfortable bloating the pot since I’ll rarely have the flush. When I call, I don’t know how often he’ll continue bluffing. Rivers that pair the board are definitely going to be scary for him, though, as are diamonds, since my likely holding for calling is either set/two pair or a pair with a diamond.
Given that there are so many rivers that discourage bluffing, plus the fact that he may not continue bluffing anyway, plus the fact that his river bluff wouldn’t be that big, I might be better off 3-betting the turn. I imagine he’ll bluff less often, but when he does, it will have to be a far bigger amount than a river bluff would be. Plus, if he’s check-raising for value, I can win a much bigger pot from him.