Standard tournament garbage. Congratulations, though, to my long-time reader and former student Diego, who made the final table! Diego, why oh why did you back out of our staking deal?!!?
Obviously I’m planning a check-raise here, but given his bet sizing, I actually think I might be better off just calling:
UTG+1 (t5040)
MP1 (t8905)
MP2 (t7335)
CO (t6325)
Button (t6880)
SB (t7750)
Hero (BB) (t10280)
UTG (t2575)
Hero’s M: 137.07
Preflop: Hero is BB with J
, 8
4 folds, CO bets t150, 1 fold, SB calls t125, Hero calls t100
Flop: (t450) 6, 8
, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets t200, 1 fold, Hero calls t200
Turn: (t850) 4
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: (t850) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t700, Hero raises to t1980, CO raises to t3910, Hero calls t1930
Total pot: t8670
Results:
Hero had J, 8 (flush, Queen high).
CO had A, 4 (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: CO won t8670
That one was far less annoying than this:
UTG ($7653.50)
MP ($1972)
CO ($9506)
Button ($4900)
SB ($5025)
Hero (BB) ($5075)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, K
3 folds, Button bets $150, 1 fold, Hero calls $100
Flop: ($325) 5, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
Turn: ($325) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $222, Button calls $222
River: ($769) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $555, Button raises to $1655, Hero raises to $4703 (All-In), Button calls $2873 (All-In)
Total pot: $9825 | Rake: $3
Results:
Button had A, 9 (flush, Ace high).
Hero had 10, K (flush, King high).
Outcome: Button won $9822
Villain is usually a short-stacker, though he occasionally buys in full. He’s definitely borderline scared money when he does, but I still can’t see how this isn’t a shove on the river (even though I had a sick feeling when he raised and had to force my fingers not to be weak-tight). The only thing is that he may be weighted towards the nuts because of the flop check, which he’s far more likely to do with Ace-high than with a random suited connector. But given what he had here, it seems plausible he would play 98s or 65s the same way. I don’t know though, come to think of it, he probably still has more combinations of Axs pre-flop then lower flushes. Ugh, maybe this isn’t a good shove either.
2nd hand –> You say he usually plays with scared money as a FS. The fact that he raises the river would be a good sign he's bluffing or has the nuts … no?
But if he SS'd, it would be an easy call, yes?
Re: KTs < A9s hand
I really doubt any sane person value raises 3x to a 3rd river spade with say JsXs or 9s8s, unless he is bluffing (either with air or weaker hand like a straight to force you off a weak flush) or has the nuts. With that logic, weaker flushes possibly may raise smaller for thin value (like a donk min-raise) only if this villian is capable of it. Judging by your previous history and player read, (esp "scared money" at this level) that would seem very unlikely.
But your 3bet shove will only force all inferior hands to fold, so calling over shoving is huge +EV. Only Ks or As can call here and since you have KsTs, it is wishful thinking to hope villian will stack off with 3rd nuts JsXs. This is a $2873 charitable donation …