Go Back to 25/50, Ansky

Dani Stern, my fellow Poker Savvy Plus pro perhaps better known as Ansky, is one of the players whose game I respect the most. I love watching his videos, and I hate playing at his tables. Thus, I am more than a little upset that he’s been “slumming it” in the 5/10 and 10/20 games of late.

Then again, playing against a great player can be a fun challenge that forces you to step up your own game. At least that’s how it started out:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($2305.50)
Button ($5576)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
Button bets $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60) J, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($60) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($60) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $40, Hero raises to $120, 1 fold

Total pot: $140 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn’t show 8, 8 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $139.50

In general, I’ve found that people don’t bluff nearly as often as they should when there is four or five to a straight on the board. The thing is that even when you are called, you usually chop the pot, so it’s a very low-risk bluff. Still, I get shown a (better) straight way too often when I do look people up.

Ansky, of course, is an exception. I think that he will, appropriately, bet 100% of his range when I check it to him here. Further, I think he probably will not give me credit for being able to check-raise bluff in this kind of random spot.

This next hand is the one I’m most proud of. Ansky is the SB. The key to this hand is that I’ve seen Ansky cold call three-bets from out of the blinds with medium pocket pairs, so his range here is wider than you might think:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2000)
Button ($637)
SB ($2005)
BB ($2391)
Hero (UTG) ($2590)
MP ($2000)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets $20, MP raises to $70, 2 folds, SB calls $65, 1 fold, Hero raises to $290, MP calls $220, SB calls $220

Flop: ($880) K, 10, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $444, 1 fold, SB calls $444

Turn: ($1768) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1768) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1856 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1768 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show J, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1765

To the extent that there’s a golden opportunity for a 4-bet squeeze play, this is pretty close to it. Both Villains have wide-ish ranges, and the cold call will probably scare the original 3-better. Plus, with stacks as deep as they are, I still have room to get creative post-flop.

The other neat thing about this hand is the turn check. I was planning on shoving a lot of turns, but this was a pretty awful one. Obviously it’s much harder to represent the K when another one comes.

It’s very unlikely, though, that Ansky checks the top of his range to me on the river. It looks like I’m either giving up on a bluff or trying to check down a modest hand, so if he’s got a big hand, I expect him to shove the river.

Having excluded the top of his range, I have to wonder how many of his “cheap showdown” hands call a river shove. Given my above assumptions, my shove is going to look pretty strong. He may think that if I needed to bluff, I would have done it on the turn, and that if I have showdown value, I would often opt just to check it down. Thus, I’m counting on my hand looking like a monster to him.

Of course, just as I am feeling pretty proud of myself, he goes and does this:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1776)
BB ($2766)
UTG ($1253)
MP ($2262.25)
Hero (CO) ($2463)
Button ($6596)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, 9
2 folds, Hero bets $35, Button calls $35, 2 folds

Flop: ($85) J, 2, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $66, Button calls $66

Turn: ($217) K (2 players)
Hero bets $144, Button calls $144

River: ($505) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $388, Button raises to $6351 (All-In), Hero calls $1830 (All-In)

Total pot: $4941 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9, A (flush, Ace high).
Hero had K, 9 (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Button won $4938

Obviously he backed into an unlikely monster here, making it a great spot for an overbet shove on the river. I generally don’t beat myself up over paying off the very top of a guy’s range, but here it’s hard for me to imagine him showing up without the goods. If he wants to bluff, there’s really no reason for him to overbet the pot. A pot-sized or smaller raise would entail less risk and potentially represent a wider range, since it could more plausibly represent thin value from something like a set. But gah, who knows. This is why it sucks having good players on your left…