Elaboration

On my recent post, “Defining His Range Into Oblivion“, tce left a comment that I felt warranted a new post:

This is a tantalizing post with some really interesting ideas that need more meat. Can you say more? In my experience, trying to blow someone off an Ax hand is just too disruptive to my bankroll. Many players are just too stubborn and will chk-call all three streets. I finally learned that my best counter-strategy is to simply bet the hell out of my hand when I can beat Ax. Turning 2nd pair into a bluff in the hopes of blowing someone off Ax? I dunno, I need to hear more.

It’s a good question. This concept isn’t just a neat way to bluff. The point is that when you have position and a good sense of your opponent’s range, you have a generous edge because of your ability to make better decisions on the river. You want to have a big pot and also enough money behind for a big river bet, ideally with nothing left over in the effective stacks, to maximize that edge. Then, it’s just a matter of actually making that river decision.

Against this opponent, I’m confident that in a 4-bet pot, a bluff in that spot would be very profitable. Against a looser opponent who will not fold Ax, then you will value shove more hands and bluff less.

Before I could even get around to posting that, I found myself in another heads up match against the same opponent where several exemplary hands arose. Here’s one where I employ the same line for value with AA:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $2,937.50
BB: $2,044.50

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $120, Hero raises to $270, BB calls $150

Flop: ($540) 3 T 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $222, BB calls $222

Turn: ($984) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $444, BB folds

Results: $984 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero mucked A A and WON $983.50 (+$491.50 NET)

And an example of how one might defend against such a line:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

SB: $3,578
Hero (BB): $3,958.50

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to $30, Hero raises to $111, SB raises to $265, Hero calls $154

Flop: ($530) 5 5 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $285, Hero calls $285

Turn: ($1,100) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $865, Hero calls $865

River: ($2,830) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $2,163 and is All-In, Hero calls $2,163

Results: $7,156 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
SB showed 3 5 (three of a kind, Fives) and LOST (-$3,578 NET)
Hero showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Fives) and WON $7,155.50 (+$3,577.50 NET)

The point here isn’t just that I coolered him. I put him on either a big hand (which would probably include KK and AA) or a bluff. No matter which he has, I can just check-call my boat and let him stick the money in by the river, since that’s what he’ll do with either type of hand. Not only do I induce bluffs, but I also make it tougher for him to bluff and value bet me with a line like this in the future.

Before you start feeling too bad for this guy, realize that this was payback for the last time he re-raised me with garbage:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $3,829
BB: $2,000

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $120, Hero calls $90

Flop: ($240) 3 2 T (2 Players)
BB bets $125, Hero calls $125

Turn: ($490) 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $365, Hero raises to $3,584 and is All-In, BB calls $1,390 and is All-In

River: ($4,000) 9 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Results: $4,000 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero showed J J (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$2,000 NET)
BB showed 6 4 (a straight, Six high) and WON $3,999.50 (+$1,999.50 NET)

Honestly, this is a bad turn shove by me. Against a lot of people, it would be fine, but this guy really wasn’t aggressive enough to warrant it. JJ is good often enough, but my equity is so bad that I can’t profitably shove. Mayyyyybe I could get away with calling and then folding the river unimproved, but folding is probably the best option.