Here’s an interesting pot from the $200 Rebuy 6-Max WCOOP event. You probably know that in theory, multi-street bluffing tends to involve building two ranges for each street, a “keep bluffing” range and a “give up” range, such that your bluffing frequency gets lower on each street.
In practice, though, it’s easy to end up doing either too much or too little bluffing, especially on the river. It’s easy to say either, “this is a good card, bombs away” with all of your bluffs, or to say, “eh, I don’t think he’s folding,” and check back all of your bluffs.
That’s all well and good if you’re confident in those reads, but against a tough opponent, it shouldn’t be easy to make such sweeping generalizations. When thinking about which hands to give up with, it’s good to choose candidates that block Villain’s folding range, just as you want to block his calling range when you fire that third barrel. Here, I bet a big draw on the flop and turn, but on the river, I give up, because I expect that much of Villain’s range for calling turn and folding river will consist of pair-plus-draw hands, and my own draws make it hard for him to have those.
PokerStars – $203+$12|250/500 Ante 65 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 13.38 BB (VPIP: 31.22, PFR: 6.91, 3Bet Preflop: 1.22, Hands: 189)
SB: 134.56 BB (VPIP: 19.00, PFR: 14.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 326)
BB: 78.9 BB (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 15.66, 3Bet Preflop: 2.41, Hands: 205)
Hero (UTG): 86.55 BB
CO: 11.42 BB (VPIP: 17.09, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 118)
5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.15 BB) Hero has As Ts
Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB
Flop : (9.77 BB, 4 players) 3s Qc 9s
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.88 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 4.88 BB
Turn : (19.54 BB, 2 players) Jd
BB checks, Hero bets 11.72 BB, BB calls 11.72 BB
River : (42.98 BB, 2 players) 3c
BB checks, Hero checks
BB shows Kd Qs (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
(Pre 38%, Flop 56%, Turn 64%)
Hero mucks As Ts (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 62%, Flop 44%, Turn 36%)
BB wins 42.98 BB
I’m curious why we are betting turn. Assuming that most of his flop calls are 9’s and Q’s, don’t most of those 9’s and Q’s improve to two-pair or pair + gut shot with J on the turn?
So are you thinking we should not have a bluffing range on the turn at all?
So AKss is a better hand to bluff with here? Since it blocks calling range (aq kq) but does not block folding range ( 9x TX jx with a pair + draw)
Exactly!
Following that thread of logic, keeping aside other factors such as specifc board texture, would you say QJ is a good hand to bluff with on K high boards? And KQ on A high boards?
Too man other variables there. There’s plenty of spots where KQ has showdown value on A high boards.
So if we played this line with AhTh we might fire because we don’t block his missed spade draw+pair hands?
Another factor is how often does villain get here with an unpaired hand that Ace high actually beats. In my microstakes games it’s quite a lot (other spade draws) – so we don’t benefit as much from bluffing when we have other bluff candidates that can fold out more hands they are behind – but maybe at this level villains would check-raise (or fold) the unpaired hands earlier in the hand so the showdown value is worthless.
Yes, very good thing to be aware of, but as you predict, a non-factor here.