Seems like a fitting thread to start on Easter!
This is from a 10/25 NLHE game with effective stacks of about $8K. The main Villain, in the SB, is a capable and experienced player, not 100% sure whether he’s a pro but he’s good enough that I think he could be. I imagine that he has a similar opinion of me. The BB is definitely a pro and strong player.
Hero opens to $75 with Kd 6d on the button. I realize that some of you would fold this pre-flop, and while it’s a bit close, I think it’s a good open in most games and I’m certainly going to err on the side of opening the button more aggressively when we are this deep. SB and BB both call.
Flop 6h 6c 3s. SB bets $100, BB folds, Hero?
Post your preferred play, along with your reasons, here. I’ll respond as I can in the comments and post the next decision point on Wednesday.
Gotta raise. You are never supposed to have a 6 here. Make pot bigger.
“Never” is a strong word. A6s, A6o, 76s, 65s, 86s, 64s, 96s, 76o, 66, and 44 very plausibly in my range. Still doesn’t add to a large % given the board, but this is similar to saying that I “never” have KK+ pre-flop. It’s unlikely but not impossible, and when stacks are deep enough, the possibility is significant enough to make getting all in with less a bad idea.
I like a call. I think his range is small pp, 45s or 6x (where x is 7s or As). Pop the turn with any card other than a 7.
This hand is weird already.
I think we can look at this in one of two ways. If we make no precise assumptions about SB’s cold calling range preflop and leading range on this flop, but know that he is competent in some way, shape, or form, I think it follows that we might assume his leading range is balanced. We need to decide how to respond. We would often do so by formulating calling, raising, and folding ranges, but on a flop this dry, it might be best to always continue by calling. After all, there are very few hands good enough to put in 35x the pot, and not many bluffing candidates with the type of equity we might want to use for bluff-raising. We also have many, many hands here that sort of fall into the “medium strength” category, that don’t really benefit from raising (these include really any pocket pair and any A hi hand, of which we have every combo I would assume). The best way to protect this rather wide range might just be to eschew a raising range on the flop.
All of that said, I think we might be able to make an important assumption about what a SB cold calling range, vs a strong button opener with >300 BB effective stacks, might look like. Frankly, not that many of these hands are likely to come up with trips or better on this flop. I think hands like 76s, 65s, A6s, and possibly 33 and 66 get 3b at least some of the time, and a hand like 54s that has plenty of equity seems better served as a light 3betting candidate also. But at the same time, I fail to see the benefit of leading some depolarized range that might include hands like 77-99; it seems like a recipe to get put in very tough positions vs good competition. I wonder if this Villain had seen Andrew do more than his fair share of 4betting during this session and thus this might cause him to widen his SB calling range with hands that flop well? I don’t know.
Basically, I’m very confused by Villain’s lead, and I’m not sure I want to assign a lot of weight to the assumption I laid out above concerning what his preflop range construction might look like (I don’t want to dismiss it entirely either, but we’re getting somewhat divergent evidence about the types of hands Villain might hold, which seems like good reason to not worry about it too much yet). So, I’m defaulting to a more baseline strategy, which would be to call with my entire continuing range, obviously including this particular hand.
I would not think Foucault raising 3bb on button and two competent players call with top 60% of their range in a cash game is weird at all. All it allows me to do is rule out 63 which helps, but not greatly.
I agree with this assessment with respect to the BB much more than I do with respect to the SB. Assuming that SB believes Andrew to be a competent opponent and is himself competent, I really don’t see him having a wide calling range from the SB. Playing out of position against tough opponents is not very easy, of course, and calling invites a third (also competent) player into the hand, which leads me to believe that he will be heavy on 3betting and folding from this spot. I do agree with Chris’ point that SB is one place where even good players vary a fair bit in how they like to construct ranges, and as I mentioned before there might be reasons why SB is choosing to flat a wider range than usual here. But I think the baseline starting point for a SB calling range for a strong player should be narrow.
1) My sense is that villain probably shouldn’t play for stacks without at least a six. You rate to have more sixes than him (e.g., I imagine he’s folding 76o here, or at least I would be!), so if he stacks off with, say, an overpair, then you’re going to have an incredibly profitable exploitative strategy by just stacking off with sixes.
2) This deep, he’s definitely got 76s and 65s (though there is just one combo of each, right?), and then the one combo of A6s. I doubt he has Q6s or 64s, and I am really pretty unsure about 86s, which I’d fold but perhaps would be okay for a better player to defend here? I imagine he also has the three combos of under-fulls, in part because if I were playing SB 300+ BB deep, I don’t think I’d be raising much from the SB: position is worth so much with super-deep stacks that the button probably calls pretty wide, and without fold equity 33 seems like a lousy raising hand. The long and short of this is that, despite our very strong hand, if we play for stacks, we’re likely to be behind.
3) So I don’t think we actually want to play for stacks against a pro (assuming this is someone who knows how to play deep-stacked; many very strong 100BB players don’t), though certainly we’re pretty happy with our hand at the moment.
4) Frankly, I’m a little confused by his donk here. As discussed above, you have more sixes than he does. Further, I think you’re supposed to have more combos of big overpairs (AA-JJ?) here, just because I think he ought to be raising some of the time with those pre-flop. I’m not 100% sure about this, because perhaps it’s okay just to flat pre-flop with your whole range as SB because the positional disadvantage is so unpleasant that you really don’t get much value out of raising, especially because, even if you’re balanced, raising gives away some information about your hand. Nonetheless, I just think the button should be opening so wide that there’s a fair bit of value for the SB in raising, and an SB who never raises probably invites the button to raise, exploitatively, even wider. Anyway, I guess it just seems weird to donk into two players when one of them has a way nuttier range than you. So a) I’m wondering if this analysis is off and b) if it’s not, I’m having a hard time imagining his donking range.
5) I think I’d flat here here, planning on betting turn and river if checked to. I think I’d raise everything stronger than this, with the intention of calling off, and then raise with a bunch of bluffs too, bearing in mind that, assuming I bet about pot on turn or river, 1/2 as many combos of bluffs as I have pure value for the river bet will essentially be value bets on earlier streets, so my bluffing range here will actually be roughly twice the size of my value range. I’d have a pretty big flatting range here, including this so that he cannot profitably triple-barrel without some overbetting. But I have no idea if this is all a good strategy.
At first I thought about raising, since we are pretty much at the stone top of our range, and I think that flatting and potentially raising at a later point makes it really hard to rep a bluff. At the same time…it’s rainbow, paired, 6 high flop, there’s really only one draw available (the 4 combos of 54s, which as Matt states above seems like a better hand to light 3bet SB v BU 300BB deep), which makes it likely that there are only the four 7’s and the four 2’s to complete draws. I think raising really polarizes your wide button range, and I can’t really think of hand combos of the top of my (ham and pie addled) head that would make sense as bluffing candidates to balance your 6x,33, and overpair combos that you could could raise for pure value. So… I’d probably call with my entire range here. A true 180!
Forgot to add-the sizing of his bet (100 into 225 minus the rake) is really small, and he can’t expect to get many immediate folds with this sizing. So, if he is deciding to semi-bluff with something like two paint cards or a backdoor heavy hand that he didn’t want to 3-bet preflop with, or just pure bluff with whatever, this is part one of a multi-street bluff, and he’s almost certainly going to fire again with bigger sizing on a later street, which I would also think would make me lean to a call. It’s probably a WA/WB situation where whoever’s behind is drawing to 2-4 outs, so we should use our position to make better decisions on later streets considering how freaking deep we are, especially considering how weak/static this flop is and how absolutely weak it is for both players ranges (probably stronger for you, since you can have a wider button opening range with more 6x than he can flatting from the SB). I need to learn how to write more concisely, basically.
I think calling is best here, if he has over pairs your raise would be so strong that you’d fold out the range of hands that you want to continue to bet turn whether it’s for value or bluff, but o don’t see many bluffs here and you should have a wider flop calling range, I think you’d continue with most overs on this board and all pairs, so I’m leaning toward call and let’s see a turn.
Hi Andrew.
My first thought was to flat as per reasons many have given above.
I am interested in your thoughts on how the sizing of his lead effects your decision making process.
If it was a standard 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot sizing i would feel more comfortable deciding. I play smaller stakes where weak leads always mean weak hands (usually just wanting to set their own price to see a turn card) and my standard is to raise these to my usual cbetting size if cbetting was my plan to begin with. This bet, however, is somewhere in between the two and I’m not sure how to approach it.
Also, my standard opponents are not as sophisticated as these either.
Thanks Mark
Wow, what a fun spot!
I’m going to take the opposite tack of most of commenters so far and raise SB’s bet to 600. My thinking is that
1) We have a clear value hand that beats almost everything except 4 measly combos of A6s (1) and 33 (3)
2) The deep stacked nature gives Villain’s range incentive to continue in some form (folding would be too exploitable)
3) If we don’t build a pot now, it will be hard to later.
4) Villain’s small sizing, under half pot, does not suggest a desire to put stacks in, especially since he is OOP.
5) You don’t mention any history between you two, but in my experience a lot of thinking players take paired boards as an opportunity to ‘go to war,’ in which case you should give him every opportunity to do so.
6) If Villain’s 55, 44 and assorted overpairs ever put more money in the pot, it will be now, not when possible overcards hit.
#4 is important, and I would be much happier flatting a pot-sized bet.
I first think about calling range of the villain. In that spot, with SB calling, I would put his calling range at 10’s-2’s, AKo AQ-A2s, AQ-A10os, KQos-J10os, J10s-45s KJs-79s and K10s-107s. I would think at least 50% of the time he would reraise AA-JJ,AKs, KQ-QJs, and A5-A2s,although sometimes he would flat for deception/range balancing with the strongest a of those hands
Of course he is less likely to have KK and Kx given you hold a K.
With that range, possible he would donk with 2 overs+ backdoor flush, an overpair, or oesd or oesd+backdoor flush. I don’t really see him donking with 33 or 6x, which would more likely be check/raise candidates, or even c bet flatting candidates.
So, in my most likely scenario of his range, we are way ahead. Of course we consider our options. We can fold, which I think give. The board and our holdings is not possible unless a meteor hits the casino and you feel the need to flee for safety.
Other options are raise and call.
If he is at the top of his calling range pre-flop, there are a number of cards that could be unfortunate for hero if they appear on the turn. However, if he hit this board hard, a raise will help him disproportionately.
Given the suspicious size of the bet, I think flatting here is a better option
I am also inclined to raise, mostly for the reasons mentioned by jjd. I wouldn’t pot it, though, but rather raise his 4bb bet (in 9bb) to around 15bb ($375).
While the earlier comments are correct that we don’t want to stack off with K6 here this deep, just because we raise for value doesn’t compel us to stack off or even call a three bet. It’s of course possible that villain has A6, 33 and getting 3bet is kind of gross, but villain can certainly continue (i.e., call) with overpairs such as 77-99 and and handful of worse 6x (while there are not many 6x left, it’s not like villain is going to be folding them to a modest raise). This is also why I think we want to bet smaller – we want overpairs drawing to 2 out to call our raise, so we can’t size it so that villain only continues with better 6x and 33. If villain calls, I would feel pretty good about our hand and look to get modest bets on turns and rivers, depending upon the runout. We’re not looking to get stacks in, but set up bets of 22bb or so on the turn and 40bb or so on the river (again, subject to the runout). Since we’re in position, we’re likely going to be able to set the bet sizes, unless villain raises us, which will set off alarms. Even if we only get one additional street of value, we’re getting about 33bb from villain (which is already more than calling down potential bets of 9bb and 18bb on the turn and river) and a shot at a herocall for a substantial additional bet. In particular, I agree that the board is going to get scarier for most of villain’s range, so a raise on a later street is less likely to get called.
If we do get 3bet (or check-raised at some point), we make a decision based upon sizing (and on later streets, the runout). Since we do have a number of stronger hands (A6s, A6o, 66, and 33) in our range, K6 may very well be a raise/fold. It is pretty hard for him to construct a balanced donk/3bet range, so he’s unlikely to have many bluffs (and is unlikely to turn a worse 6x into a bluff, for the same reasons that the above posters don’t want to get in stacks with K6 here).
Finally, although the board is pretty dry, I think hero will want to bluff raise such a small donk some of the time, particularly if we think villain has medium pocket pairs in his range that are going to fold to additional pressure. Some backdoor draws and gutshots like 87s and 75s (with BDFDs) would seem appropriate for a bluffing range here. Again, the smaller sizing for a raise gives us a better price on our bluffs as well.
Man, i open this from the CO and against weak opponents (ie not two very good 10/25 players), probably the hijack too. I’m opening all suited kings otb. I guess i’m a lag? Anyway:
CLICK IT BACK!
My first thought was actually to just call, and consider calling the turn to raise the river. I think with conventional sizings we assume we’re only getting one raise in and he will either 3b, in which case we will bluff catch and start calling or he will call and he will likely bluff catch and start calling with his 6x and maybe some pairs. I don’t want to get into whether he will have pps or not. I think it’s close to unknowable without direct observation. SB strategy in live games seems to be the one place where even really excellent players just seem to shrug and make it up as they go. At least in my experience with 5/5-5/10 games.
The problem though is that once called, he can potentially c/c you to death. you’ll have a bunch of floating hands on this flop, but few real value raises. also very few bluff raises. it’s also a board where semibluffing shouldn’t be prioritized. raising 75 or 54 on this flop just invites him to 3b the flop or c/r turn. both cases can result in us not realizing our equity as well as we could. we have position, why swell the pot when we hold somewhat marginal draws when we can just call?
So i just click it back here. I think it’s a good sizing for nearly any holding you may have. if he is bluffing, our range is so strong and the board so difficult to hit that his bluffs should be pretty easy to let go, even for 3.5:1. The smaller raise size makes our (likely very small) raising range more theoretically correct, given the odds he’s getting. And we really aren’t raising this flop to set up getting it in anyhow. With that much money back, if we gii at pretty much any point, we have to figure we’re beat a whole bunch. But we do grow the pot a bit and set up potentially more polarizing sizings on later streets. I’ll save the later street thoughts for later streets though!
So CIB, for fun and profit, imo.
Whoops, meant 4.5:1 there, but same principle applies.
I like flatting here a little better than raising. SB would have pocket 4s, 5s, 3x, maybe 7s thru10s sometimes, he would check his monsters and darws most of the time, we’d like to keep his entire leading range by just flatting. Our raising range here would be pocket 7s through Js, 45s with back door flush draw and 6x, 3s, we’d like to mix some 6x hand in our calling range, I this case, K6 will be top of our calling range. Not too many scary cards or us on the turn, by flatting we are more likely to get three street of value.
I like calling here. This is a super dry board and we are going to have a difficult time connecting with it given that you stated that you will be opening a lot of buttons and our range is going to be fairly wide. I imagine we are going to want to be able to fight back on such dry boards and to me floating (with overs) is a stronger and less expensive way of doing so against an aggressive SB.
I’m assuming your standard line would be to raise. I’d go on the small side, maybe making it 275 to go. Calling looks fishy and I think he’s likely to call the 175 more (maybe even 3bet). By building the pot here you may get another street of value at a higher price than you would if you just call and the pot is only 425 vs the 775 if he calls the flop raise. It’d be nice if you are in a cooler type situation vs something like 67, but I’d be trying to get another street of value vs 66-88 type hands or hands with 2 overs, hoping he turns one.
Meant 77-99 hands above.
I am raising the flop donk bet to $400. If villains bet/3bets the flop, I’d reevaluate considering bets sizing and any tells.
I would like to have a calling and raising range on this flop. I know by raising, we strengthen villains range but I’m raising my K6 hands (and A6 when I have it) because they dominate the majority of 6x in the villain’s range (86s,76s,65s,64s)
I would also raise hands with back door straight and/or flush potential to have sort of bluffing range on this flop.
I’m flatting with the rest of the 6x in my range, as well as strong Axs and pocket pairs I think.
I think villains donking range could be something like AA(1),JJ-77,A6s,86s,76s,65s,64s and maybe some bluffs like 54s and 75s. I removed KK/QQ (balancing this out by leaving all of the JJ and TT in his range) assuming he would 3b these most of the time and left one combo of AA to account for the time he slowplays preflop.
I think villains pocket pairs will also call a flop raise and maybe some turns and rivers depending on runouts, but they are unlikely to barrel 3 streets unless they hit a full house.
Think for a while… look at him hard… have a decision and call.
He bet 4 blinds, so a 3 or 45s is most likely in my mind. No immediate flush draws so he could even have <88 etc. or even 67s 56s.
Why is he betting here? Does he put you on higher cards 10J+ that missed and have some equity so he is looking to take it down if you in fact have missed overcards?
The question for me is: Does his represented equity want to get more in or less in? Foucault does not seem like the type of player others think are going to let a Cbet opportunity go to waste in a Button vs blind situation. This inclines me to think that he wants to see a turn. I am not disinclined to let him while he has 'oop control' of the hand.
So why did he bet 100?
Most of the time it is to freeze you or hopefully press a fold with less than stellar equity.
What cards are you not wanting to see? 7, 2, i think any other card you are not terribly concerned about continuing with. Here I am inclined to give him rope. I want to exercise my option for more value on the turn with safe cards and keep in any semi bluffs/low equity hands in his range. He wants control on the flop to see a turn. I would be inclined to let him see a turn. 11/13 roughly times you will be in a better position to gain more equity with a hand you can be relatively certain is ahead. Betting here does not gain extra $$ in a won hand as much as it loses $$ a great majority of the time on hands that are too far behind currently to continue or so locked we are valuing ourselves. Such as 63s or 33.
This is one of the best hands you will have on this board. As a pfr, even a late position pfr, you will have relatively few nut hands on this flop. So I vote for raising big.
This does not have to weaken your calling range. You can still have weak 6s in your calling range which will protect you.
I propose we raise here with
Value : full house a6 k6
Bluff : gutshots with backdoors, ace highs with backdoors
I will raise to 450. It is not so big that we entice him to 3 bet bluff a lot. Yet it is big enough to polarize our range and make him bluff catch more.
Because when he does 3 bet this flop, we are going to puke.
Great Spot! Great as in interesting!
Seems like you have to raise to punish his draws trying to name his price but on the other hand it feels like if you raise then a good player could easily take advantage of you.
I can’t really defend it strongly either way but I like a MIN-RAISE. Make him worried you just flopped the nuts and maybe he is a little less likely to 3-bet light.
Plan I think is to call down maybe fold to just a 7.
Plus I just want to say these hand of the week are some of my favorite stuff on-line!
I raise. I don’t want sb to be able to exploit me by donking out here so I’m going to be playing back and applying pressure with a fair number of hands. (Some light flop or turn raising)
So in terms of balance I think I want/need K6 in there as a value side raising hand pretty easy. I’m plenty happy getting in 4 bets postflop here.
Also, we have a lot more 6x+ combos than a sb flatter. (And I think probably a higher % of our total combos than sb does)