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Andrew wins a live MTT and faces a tough decision with the third nuts. You can read trip reports from Day 1 and Day 2 (including the final table).
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Timestamps
0:30 – hello & welcome
25:22 – strategy
Strategy
5/10/20 $3500 effective.
HJ opens to $60, Hero calls 66 in CO, Straddle calls.
Flop ($190) 644ss checked around
Turn ($190) 8o Straddle bets $100, HJ folds, I raise to $300, he makes it $1040, I call.
River ($2270) Jo He jams for roughly pot.
RE Tips:
I’m surprised y’all didn’t discuss the possibility that the people receiving the tip didn’t want a paper trail.
Go check out the Aria poker room scandal thread on 2p2.
Nice episode lads! Apologies if this question is too basic, but I like the fold a lot in the 66 hand against this particular opponent as described. What I mean is I think it’s right given the reading of the action, villain, board texture and so forth.
Indeed your check flop, raise turn line looks strong, he knows it, you know it, he knows you know he knows etc etc. So we correctly put few bluffs in his turn raising range. Right?
So one thing you guys skipped was thoughts on his range after he check raised the turn in terms of your equity, implied odds for a quads draw, how we feel about x rivers, the fact that most of them are effectively bricks (as the Jo was). Obv it’s super nitty to fold the turn, but if it looks so much like 88 or 44 (although the latter may not raise quite as much), then what is the rationale on the turn call?
This seems to be such an interesting spot especially since weaker villains will overvalue a straight here along with 4x here, but as you say, not this guy.
Congratulations, Andrew! I enjoyed your tip analysis as well as your hand analysis in this episode. If I were going to fold 66, I would fold it face up, and I have a reputation for never showing my cards. Those type of hero folds are as glorifying as a bold all-in bluff and a call for your stack with A-high. Opponents who know about your outstanding fold will likely try to make you fold other strong hands – so in this instance, folding face-up will likely pay financial dividends, in addition to securing the glory of making a fold that 99.9% of poker players could not make.
Thanks, John, it’s very good to hear that from you. TBH I did it mostly for the glory. I’m yet to reap rewards from the image-building effect. Perhaps not coincidentally, same Villain raised AJs UTG and 4-bet vs my CO 3-bet when I had KK. I called a T9X flop and called a shove on a turn 8, but by the river I was no good 🙂
A great fold. I don’t think your reasons for pitching 66 face-up are very convincing though. I’m pretty sure, having listened to almost every TP podcast, that you would have thought it was a bad idea had someone written in with the hand and told you they had done this, just to tilt one single opponent.
As you said, villain was a good player. He would know your reason for showing might very-well adapt to your altered perception of his future play, following the tabling of such a strong holding. The weaker players at the table would just decide to bluff you more. Presumably, both you and villain were at the table to take their money, rather than each others?
If those players aren’t putting you in any tough spots, why encourage them to? As you say, the only reason this is a tough laydown is that villain is a good player – good enough to see it as an audacious bluffing spot, perhaps? Even so, it’s very unlikely. He’s not in that game to get into levelling wars with a very-talented pro, who isn’t playing with scared money.
I think the flop action is the most-significant here. There is no reason for the button to check that flop unless he has the board locked down. A good villain should realise this and a good villain was in the hand. It could be argued that villain ended up getting more information from you, than you did from him, despite the fact that he was OOP. If that is the case, can the button have ever played his hand optimally – regardless of holdings?
Thanks for the comment, Dan. I don’t think what you’re arguing against here are exactly the reasons I gave, though. I definitely didn’t say anything as simplistic as “Now they’ll all think I’m tight and I can pick off bluffs later!”
No one – certainly not the Villain – is going to confuse me for scared money. If anything I think the image it will project is one of super-powered hand reading skill and discipline. I think a lot of people will see that fold and realize that whatever led to it is beyond their comprehension and just be intimidated generally.
I’m not particular about who I take money from. If Villain bluffs too much, I’ll make money snapping him off, and he telegraphs his monsters in spots like this, I’ll make money folding to him. His money spends as well as anyone else’s.
I agree about my check on the flop being the thing that makes the future action weird. I still like it for exploitive reasons, though.
Sorry, that should read ‘He would know your reason for showing AND might very-well adapt to your altered perception of his future play…’