Thanks to everyone who contributed to the Hand of the Week so far.
It seems like everyone recognizes that this hand is too strong to fold. Several commenters assigned ranges to Villain that gave Hero 41% – 47% equity. Even recognizing that Villain may check some hands like AQ that contribute significantly to Hero’s equity, there is nonetheless a lot of value in continuing with this hand.
This is a flop that does little to change pre-flop equities. The player with the range advantage pre-flop carries that advantage forward to this flop. There’s a bit of a shift – pairs go up in value and unpaired hands go down – but the fact that remains that Villain should have more nutted hands in the form of big pocket pairs than the Hero.
Despite the lack of draws, this is also a dynamic flop, because big cards on the turn and/or river have the potential to dramatically change the value of certain hands for better or worse. This means that, at least on certain run outs, Hero’s position will have a lot of value.
These two facts taken together suggest that Hero has little to gain by raising the flop. The stacks are shallow enough that the hands at the top of his range don’t need to raise to get full value. Small pairs have some interest in protection, but raising for this purpose alone also means frequently putting in two bets against a range that crushes them and perhaps even opening themselves up to the occasional bluff. Hero will be able to make better bluffing, value betting, and checking decisions on later streets and probably does best by calling with his entire continuing range and waiting to see how Villain reacts to the turn.
The presence of hands like AK in Hero’s range should help Hero’s pocket pairs get to showdown, as Villain will not be able to barrel indiscriminately on Ace or King turns. Likewise, the presence of pocket pairs helps Hero’s AK get to showdown when ahead, as Villain cannot indiscriminately barrel blank turns.
Turning your hand into a bluff may increase your odds of winning the pot, but that doesn’t make it the highest expected-value option. This wasn’t the ideal flop for AK, nor was an under-the-gun raise the ideal pre-flop action, but learning to make the best of non-ideal situations is an important poker skills, and here that means calling and playing poker on future streets.
The turn card and action will follow in a separate post.