What’s Your Play? Pair Plus Draw

18 thoughts on “What’s Your Play? Pair Plus Draw”

1. Is V2 passive post flop? Can we exclude JJ/66/22 from his range after his flop flat call?

   With a combo draw like this, you are almost never behind any hand other than a set. So there is a lot of merit to playing it aggressively specially since you are OOP and may find it difficult to play many turns and rivers profitably.

   But check raising this board reps very few strong made hands.

   I personally would have led out.

   V1 bet 80% of pot as c-bet. Is that his standard c-bet sizing? Have you seen him c-bet smaller with A-highs? Over pairs? Nut flush draws?

   It is worth noting that barring 34hh, 45hh, 35hh we have the smallest flush draw. Are we really comfortable putting in 300bb by the river with one of the smallest front-door flush?

   Considering all of this, given that we checked, I think a call is best.

   Turn and River plan:

   1. If we make the flush, lead out for 80-90% of pot.
   2. If we make trips/2 pair, lead out for 80-90% of pot.
   3. If a 6/5/9/T hits on turn, lead out for 80-90% of pot. (Those cards hit our range more than 2 EP players)
   4. All other cards, check and fold.

   • If we are sure V2 never has a set and that V1 doesn’t open small pairs UTG, then check-raising all in can be fun to do. You will gain a crazy maniacal image and may even tilt them after they see your 72hh.

     • Interesting idea, but I can’t promise either of those things one way or the other. Do you think they should make these plays?

       • V2 has position on both of you. So he can call profitably with a wide range on this flop. I think V2 should flat JJ but raise 66/22 in position. Flatting with JJ keeps at least some strong hands in his range. Flatting with 66/22 may end up costing him a lot of value.

         As for V1, at a tough deep stacked table, he shouldn’t be opening small pairs in EP. Even though it weakens his range on low boards, it also means he has more equity to keep barreling on high boards. He will also avoid classic deep stacked coolers OOP. Just my opinion.

         • And if you feel like players will take advantage of your weak range on low boards, you can bluff catch/re-raise bluff more often with your good pairs.

   • Thanks for the comments. I might be able to answer some of your questions, but I’d rather consider the situation without those reads. These things aren’t entirely questions of an individual player’s style. What do you think Villain’s range should look like when he bets this size?

     “I personally would have led out.”

     What would your donking range be?

     • For a 100BB game, I would donk with a more polarized range. (So sets, combo draws, A of hearts/gutshots)

       For a deep stacked game, I would depolarize my donking range. This will help me build a polarized 3 bet range. My understanding here is that bets that commit a significant portion of my stack should be polarized. It is EV suicide to put in a lot of money with a good but not great hand and then fold to a shove/ 4 bet.

       So some strong hands (66, 22). Some strong draws (2xhh, 34hh). Some medium strength hands (AJ/KJ/QJ with a heart) Some bluffs (A/K of hearts, gutshots, bottom pair)

       I would check call with JJ, regular flush draws, AJ/KJ/QJ without a heart, TT/99 with a heart (depends on villains) 6x with a big heart may be)

2. I’m never a fan of building a pot without a made hand while OOP, so after making the post-flop check I’d just call.

   You don’t have a hand yet, and given what these two villains are like (V1 thinks you’re capable and could expect a x/r steal, and V2 is stubborn post), a x/r can expect a call from one or both. I’d hate to risk all 300bb’s with a 7high flush (if we hit the turn or river), and I don’t want to feel forced to barrel on a turn blank or bluff whiffed rivers (which is something I’d have to do if we show strength and get aggressive w/a flop x/r).

   If the flush comes on the turn, I’d lead out for 1/2 to 2/3 pot and see how they respond as now that I have a flush I don’t want to miss out on even a small amount of value. If I get raised, then I’d just call and x/c the river unless a 4th heart hits.

   If I miss the flush on the turn, then I’d likely just x/f. But if I hit trips or 2p, then I’d c/r as they wouldn’t expect this and can pay you with lots of mid-pairs (77-TT) or TP hands that are unbelieving that a 2 or 7 helped you.

   On the river, I’d either go for value with trips/2p and lead out, or check call anything if I hit a flush, and x/f on a 4 flush board. If I turned 2p then the river pairs the J or 6, I’d just x/c a small bet or x/f a larger bet b/c my 2p is now counterfeited.

   Thanks much.

   • Sorry, meant 88-TT in the comment above re: what they can pay you off with on the turn

   • “I’m never a fan of building a pot without a made hand while OOP, so after making the post-flop check I’d just call.”

     Thanks for the comment, you make some good points. Do you really mean this though? You never bluff OOP? I’m sure you can appreciate how easy that is to play against.

     • Yes, I agree that it’s easy to play against this type of stratey.
       I do bluff and donk lead sometimes, but usually it’s a straight bluff, not a semi-bluff, and usually on boards that completely miss my opponents’ ranges (here something like mono 864 or T23 rainbow). Donk leading w/semi bluffs is prolly something I need to incorporate more into my game and start experimenting with.
       Thanks for the reply.

3. A lot to consider here, but the first thing I think we should be doing is building a range for what we want to be raising this flop with. This would definitely include 66/22 and probably J6s/J2s (I’m extrapolating that these hands are in our range based on our preflop call) as a first pass, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to presume that we can have JJ here at least sometimes given the UTG open and the fact that we would be squeezing into a large field to pass up what is assuredly a very profitable call. So we end up with somewhere between 11 and 14 combos for value. On the bluffing side, the candidates that make the most immediate sense are 54hh/53hh/43hh. 2xhh probably makes the most sense after that, but assuming we have 72hh means that we probably have all 10 combos of those hands. I think this means that turning all of our 2xhh makes us a bit bluff heavy, and also ensures that we will have an exceptionally strong range on heart turns. Perhaps we’d be better off turning things like 54o/53o/43o with one heart into bluffs instead (again, extrapolating that these hands may well be in our range preflop).

   Villain 1 certainly doesn’t seem the type to have bet sizing tells based on his description, but is there any kind of insight we can gather into what his range looks like at this sizing, or whether this sizing is typical/atypical of his cbets? Without any history I would tend to think that this lends itself to a pretty strong range, considering the action of continuing into 4 opponents is relatively strong in the first place even before considering the large sizing on a pretty dry flop. Further, Villain 2’s call also signals quite a strong range; even though he’s described as stubborn, there’s just an extremely small number of hands that can afford to continue after calling an UTG open in UTG1 then calling a cbet of this size on this flop with 3 other players still holding live hands.

   All of this is a further argument against just shoveling money into the pot here. That said, I don’t think folding right away is an option. Running some equities, I think we can expect to have in the neighborhood of 28% equity against both ranges; so although we should expect both Vs to be quite strong I think we most likely have enough immediate equity to continue. I think calling ends up being best here, and we should prepare to fold to any reasonably sized barrel on turns that don’t improve us while calling down when we do improve our hand (assuming that the river comes out clean for us).

   I do have one question about the preflop call that may be a bit abstract, but I’ll ask nonetheless: how big of an edge do you expect to have/need in order to be this wide preflop? I’m assuming that the other Vs besides the original raiser provide a decent amount of value to the call, but doesn’t the competence of the original raiser cut against that considerably?

4. Preflop call seems spewy even with heaps of confidence in my postflop skills. Doubt I’d call pre 300bbs deep unless we were playing the seven-deuce game. So many reverse implied odds situations pop up playing single-raised 5-way pots 300bb deep OOP with 72s. This seems like one of em.

   My first instinct is just raise flop to something like 420, and now i’ll spout off some reasons to justify my intuition post-hoc:

   1) It’s never a straight-up equity disaster to get all-in on this flop vs one opponent (I’m thinking the opener is most likely, but the analysis is applicable if the opener folds and the flatter backraises; ranges for either player getting deep stacks in on the flop are probably similar). You’re 41% vs {Ahh, JJ, 66, 22}. Throw in AA-QQ (if he decides to 3b/call off because he thinks your range is unbalanced enough toward bluffs) and you’re up to 44%. Sure there still isn’t quite enough overlay to make always getting it in vs these ranges +EV. But when we call the flop, hit our flush/2p/trips, and then get multiple bets into a $570 pot on the turn and river against competent players, we likely lose more than we do getting all-in on the flop.

   2) You can possibly induce some 3bet/folds from stuff like AhK/AhQ or other hands that don’t want to believe you have 2p+/sets/A2hh/K2hh (he prob doesn’t think you’re flatting many 62/J6/J2 combos, nor does he likely credit you for having every 2hXh in your range). Obviously an equity coup for you to get those hands to fold, and an even bigger equity coup if he gets the fear and does it with QQ or something (prob not happening, but hey live poker).

   3) You can possibly get better flush draws (T9hh, 98hh, T8hh, QThh, Q9hh, KThh) to fold immediately sometimes. That ain’t happening if you call the flop. Worse yet, when you do call the flop and hit your flush, you’re at least check-calling a couple bets vs those better flushes. When you call and brick, you’ll have trouble winning at showdown (or even getting to showdown) or getting bluffs through. However, when you c/r and brick, they’re going to have to fold those flush draws to a bet

   4) You get very reliable information about what your equity is if both players continue by shoving (16%). You get somewhat less reliable information when they both call. If this scenario is likely then you may as well just

   5) When you get heads-up (a pretty likely outcome if you raise to at least $400) and hit, there will still be plenty of worse hands that will pay you off now that the SPR is well south of 3, eg sets and AhA, KhK when you make your flush and overpairs when you make 2p/trips. Against two opponents you’re both less likely to get your bluffs through when turns/rivers brick and more likely to get flush-under-flushed.

   So I guess I would probably c/r to something like $420. FWIW many regs have heard me spout off on a joking “$420 is always value wink wink” type rant, so $450 might be a better number in reality. If it gets hu and we make 2p+, I’m bet/calling. If it gets hu and we get a non-J, non-6, I’m betting whatever I’d bet when we hit (730 into $1143, which sets up about a 2/3 pot river shove). The plan is to barrel off here on bricks, targeting overpairs, top pairs, and better flush draws that have paired up.

5. This is a good board from V1 to c-bet. He probably won’t c-bet fully range though since V2’s preflop call is strong. He has something with Jx or better or something with backdoor equity at worse.

   V2’s call is strong, but he could have all the sets, Jx like J9-KJ suited, smaller pairs, and random floats with equity.

   You can have all the sets except JJ and all the 2 pair combos whereas they cant. You also have way more flush draws…obviously.

   I’d raise expecting V1 to fold often and expecting V2 to fold or show his true strength on the turn. If he calls, I barrel most rivers. If he raises, I fold most turns.

   • Seriously, where do these typos come from? They should be studied like dreams. Who even wrote that first sentence 3 minutes ago?

6. First off, these are great. My hope is that they increase in frequency. I say that selfishly, as they are helping this novice better his game. However, I have to think they may aid Andrew as well.

   On to the hand. My initial thought was to raise due to balancing your range on your squeezes and the thought of calling maybe giving off too much about what your hand is (I would need to do this). After flip-flopping numerous times (I am sure the clock would have been called on me well in advance of my final conclusion) I think calling is the right move here. What it boils down to for me are the details Andrew provided on the players involved and their perception of him. V1 made a c-bet relatively large compared to the pot. He’s a good player, so he knows that V2 is likely to call with top pair hands. While it’s not impossible for him to have air here, I think we have to figure his opening range is pretty strong UTG and he may want V2 to call this bet based on the sizing. The fact that V2 called, its likely he has one of his top pair type hands (or maybe 88-10s, but if he’s hesitant about getting into big pots, this may indicate a Jx hand) that he isn’t getting away from. By raising (lets say making it $450) the best case scenario (given they’ve seen you make some bluffs) is V1 folding and V2 calling. The worst case is a 3-bet or both players calling. I just don’t see fold equity here that would allow you to take it down on the flop (based on your perception).

   Both players calling your raise doesn’t change your equity in the hand (let’s say it’s 40% in the 3-way pot) vs you just calling, it just puts you in position to where you could face a decision on having to make a much larger turn bet on a bricked turn or having to check-fold that bricked turn (don’t think the turn gets checked around). If you got it down to heads up vs. V2 (what I think to be your best case if raising), your equity might increase 10-15%. Is that increase worth the extra $315, especially considering the possibility of getting re-raised here? Besides, if you brick it heads up, your equity will go down +20%. I think by just calling you get 20% of equity in your hand by seeing the turn (as you’ve said in a prior post, the turn is what it is, assuming a brick would leave you with 20% equity in the hand when it’s 3-way) for just $135. On a turn that makes the flush it might be a good spot to donk bet, and you’d check-raise 2 pair or trips. I don’t think it’d be too difficult to bloat the pot if you hit the turn when you just call the flop. Your image is probably one that has bet scare cards before and a donk bet might cause someone to spaz out. Your image is going to allow you to play a big pot if you want to. Just my 0.02 JPY (trying to value this adequately).

7. I would call.

   V1 has a strong range here. V2 could have a variety of hands and doesn’t like to fold so we don’t rate to have much fold equity. We’re also very deep so reverse implied odds come into play as well.

   Given that hero is calling with 7h2h preflop, I think it’s a safe assumption that hero has every combo of set(9 combos), suited two pair(7), and flush draw(55!! minus any combos we 3bet pre, if any) in his range. So we definitely want to have a check/raise range in this spot however we can easily go overboard if we’re not selective in which draws to use to balance our value hands.

   I think the best bluffs to check/raise here are are the nut-flush draws, A3-A5 being the best candidates since they will pick up additional outs on wheel card turns. I’d just call AK/AQ/AT. I’m actually not sure which hands would be the next best candidates, the 54/53/43 hands or a 2hxh hands. All these hands run close in equity compared to the bare flush draws which have significantly less. Perhaps you could share your thoughts on that?

   Anyway, the pot is already getting big and we’re getting direct odds with our hand so I’m fine just calling here and seeing what develops on the turn. If I did check raise I’d size around 500-550.

8. I’m going to go against the grain and say that I think this is a fold.

   Both V1’s (pretty large) flop bet and V2’s call, each with several players left to act, really ought to signify pretty strong ranges on both their parts. Some of the time V1 will be c-betting air, and some of the time V2 will be calling with a relatively weak hand like J-9 or 10-10, but over all each range ought to be pretty strong, and taken together then more often than not there’s at least one and maybe two strong hands out there.

   As such, I don’t see that raising achieves anything. I think most of the time you’re getting at least called and the end result is you’re out of position in a bloated pot with the second best hand, and against at least one opponent who may be disinclined to fold. Basically, you have very little fold equity, and you almost certainly don’t have the best hand. Add that to your positional disadvantage and I see no good reason to raise.

   But I don’t like calling either. Given that (a) we are surely behind at this point, (b) it’s unlikely to be profitable to just blast away at the pot and hope everyone folds, then if we call we are presumably only doing so with the hope of improving to the best hand. So let’s say we hit our flush – how are we going to win a big pot? If we bet out big on the turn then it makes our hand fairly transparent and we are unlikely to get much, if any, value from hands like AA or worse. And either opponent could easily have hands like Ahxh, KhQh etc and we end up shovelling money into the pot while drawing dead. In a nutshell, if we hit our flush and significant amounts of money go into the pot then we simply don’t have the best hand. And if only moderate amounts of money go in, then our opponent will almost certainly have a few outs to beat us on the river.

   So what about if we hit a 7 or a 2? In either case, I still don’t think it’s going to be easy to get much money into the pot with the best hand. Both villains can have 6-6 or J-J here – and, just as importantly, each villain can easily conceive of the other having those hands, not to mention the possibility of you having them. Therefore, neither villain is likely to stack off with a top pair-type hand. Similar to the flush card hitting, if the board pairs the 2 and there’s significant action then you’re probably not good. Similarly if the 7 hits. And given that we’ve dismissed the value of the flush card hitting, calling to try to hit 2 pair/trips is clearly a bad play anyway.
   In summary, if we’re calling then we’re calling to improve to the best hand (since I don’t think bluffing is likely to be profitable here). But the strong ranges of the villains (each of which contains sets and lots of better flush draws, all of which leave us in terrible shape) means that we often *can’t* catch up to the better hand, and that we can never be confident about it even when we do. If we end up playing a big pot then we likely lose, and if we hit but then try and keep the pot as small as possible – well, that doesn’t seem too good either.

   There’s an argument that we have the right immediate odds to call and see another card – but that would only be tempting if there was little or no money behind. Given how deep we are, and given that we’ll never be comfortable putting much money in on virtually any run out, calling for the immediate odds seems to be ignoring the substantial reverse implied odds here.

   All in all, a clear FOLD, I think.

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