Hand of the Week: Big Slick

16 thoughts on “Hand of the Week: Big Slick”

1. On the button, I probably raise here. If I get re-raised, I’m probably going to put him on a big pocket pair. At which point I’ll call and hope for a favorable flop. If he just calls, then I think he’s raising Ax or middle pair.

   In this position, I definately re-raise TT+, AK. I consider a re-raise with 88,99 and AQ. If villain were a little bit looser than 25/14, I’d definitely raise wider.

   I would consider a call. But if an A or K comes on flop, it’s going to be harder to get value out of him. Because I think a preflop call says “I’m drawing”.

   So I raise here in order to try and get value out of a pocket pair in the event that an A or K comes on flop. And if they don’t come, an over pair is still in my range, so I could take it away in position even if I whiff.

   • Thanks for providing the first comment! If I may offer some feedback:
     Raising in order to rep an overpair if you miss makes sense to me. Raising in order to get value if an A/K hits makes less sense. Do you really think it doesn’t occur to anyone that you might have AK when you re-raise? Call or raise, a flop with an A or K on it is going to be scary to someone holding two tens. Not to mention that it seems odd to talk about raising for the purpose of building a pot when more often than not you won’t be happy with the flop.

     • First, more than happy to get feedback.

       Second, there’s basically two options on the flop:

       1) I hit the flop
       2) I miss the flop

       If I call pre it’s hard to get any value in case #1. But I can get that value in the pot by betting preflop.

       Also if I call pre, it’s hard to rep the overpair if I miss.

       If I raise pre, I give myself options in both of those cases. Plus he might also fold pre, which I’m more than happy with.

       I could be seeing this wrong, but it’s roughly the same strategy I’d use if I was holding nut flush draw on the flop. I bet it now to get value in the pot for when I hit it. The odds of hitting a pair on the flop is roughly 32%, right? Meanwhile the odds of turning a flush on a flush draw is about 20%. It seems like I’m putting in my money with better odds as a semi-bluff on AK than with a nut flush draw. But maybe I’m missing something…?

       • I don’t think the idea of “value betting” a flush draw before you get there really makes sense either. Usually in that case you’re rooting for a fold, and the flush draw is more likely back-up for when you don’t get it. It’s hard to call it a value bet if you expect to be behind when called. Sure, the money is in there when you hit, but it’s also in there when you miss, and you miss a lot more often.

     • I should also mention that this is my strategy assuming I haven’t had to showdown when I’ve done this already. If I’ve had to showdown something like this before I probably just call.

2. Really like a flat. I’m not entirely comfortable getting it in pre if he 4bets. I can’t really see him 4bet weaker than TT after we 3bet his UTG raise. That being said if we did 3bet i can’t think folding to a re raise is correct. Calling also gives us some value from AJ+ and AXs that we scare out with a three bet potentially. We’d typically be flattinf a wide range here in position so it’s hard for villain to put us on AK. Also lets us act again in case one of the blinds tries to squeeze.

   I’m not too sure what our flat range should be here, but since we’re 30bb deep in position we can take some liberties with weaker hands. I think villain would assume the flat could be some kind of hand like 87s where he’s firing a bet regardless of the flop & his holdings.

3. I like a flat here as well. 300 hands isn’t a huge sample, but with a 14% PFR it seems likely that he’s opening 8-9% under the gun. He can fold the hands we dominate (i.e., about 60% of his range) without being exploitable here and getting it in with AK vs a 3-4% range isn’t too appealing (we’re around a 45-55 dog). Instead, I would prefer to have a nutted value range and some bluffs with an Ax blocker. I think our calling range should be fairly strong here as well, particularly since a call may invite a squeeze.

   AK is a nice hand to have in the calling range because we keep in UTG’s dominated Ax and Kx hands (e.g., AQo, AJ, KJs) that he can valuebet post flop. It also allows us to use our position postflop, as it seems likely that villain is going to 4bet or fold pre a fair amount. We’re planning to call a cbet on most flops where we have A high (and of course if we hit and A or K).

   Finally, if we call, that puts 7bb in the pot, potentially inviting a squeeze jam from the 25bb stack Katchalov has in the SB. If he jams on us and UTG folds, we have a very profitable call. If there is a squeeze and a rejam from UTG, I don’t think we’ll be terribly happy, but we’ll call and expect to break even.

4. That’s some good stuff from Sean!

   What does our 3b range look like if we’re flatting AK here?

   Does placing AKs in our 3b range avoid whatever trouble we could run into balance wise?

   • Given we’re on the button here, and everyone except the blinds folded, I might advocate for flatting my whole range here. I don’t have to worry about balancing my 3b/flat ranges, we’ll be in position with underrepped hands quite frequently in this spot, and if the blinds are squeeze-happy, you get a lot of good backraise spots where your hands looks a lot weaker than it is.

     Nut worst results is to go 4way to the flop, but you’ll be in position vs. fairly wide/weak ranges, so there are still a lot of good things that can happen on the flop.

     Not sure if I’d put AK in my backraising range here specifically, but definitely something like TT+ if UTG flats the squeeze or folds and we HU facing a squeeze from the blinds.

     • 3betting on the button sounds like a pretty cool tool to have in our toolbox, imo.

       I’m also not sure how much we should expect light squeezes in this spot. These are probably the best tournament players in the world, and I’d expect the them to have very keen eyes in these situations.

5. At this depth (fairly deep) I think I 3 bet something like KK/AA 100%, AK 50%, QQ 50%, 87s/A5s 100%. (So 23 value combos, and 8 bluff combos)

   AK may play better by flatting (keeps dominated hands in, under reps our strength, etc). However, flatting gives up the opportunity to win the pot preflop and may lead to folding the best hand on some boards.

   In the end, I 3-bet half my AK combos since I like having some AK in both my flatting and 3 betting ranges. Also, if you don’t 3-bet some combos of AK you’re either just raising very little, or your range becomes a bit fluffy imo. Even the above range is only 2.3%. I’d expect villain is opening ~8%.

6. I like a call here as well. Not only for all the reasons that Sean gave, but villain has a pretty high C betting frequency. We can expect to get action on out big flops and we can expect a solid chance to blow him off the hand later. I’m probably calling with 22-88, QQ+, AK, AQs, suited broadway, suited connectors down to 78, and re raising 99-JJ. Somewhere in that neighborhood. I’m splitting my pairs here between set mining 22-88 and trapping with QQ+.

   I know I’m not the smartest guy here. So I’m keen to see what others think.

7. I think with AKo we have to give ourselves a chance to win the pot preflop.

   We have 38 bb. I think we should be 3 betting a polarized range here against an UTG opener. Against an LP opener I would 3 bet/jam a wider value range.

   If we make it 5.5 bb, UTG can’t really just call here too often. He will end up 4 betting or folding.

   I think we should be very willing to take a flip here. So if he 4 bets we snap 5 bet jam.

   Reason is, by winning this hand at showdown, we end up with 53K – second biggest stack at the table with position on the biggest stack.

   The main reason is favor of flatting is the possibility that Eugene may squeeze with his 25bb stack.

   I think this would be more correct if the initial raiser was in LP. But I don’t think EK will be squeezing all that much against an UTG open.

   I would definitely 3 bet a polarized range here. Because a 3bet to 5.5 bb provides an easy 4 bet opportunity for UTG to 11/12BB without really committing himself. I would hate to have AJs in that spot facing a 4 bet. AKo is a hand that can withstand a 4 bet. So I will 3 bet QQ+/AKo and some suited gappers.

   If I were to 3 bet an unpolarized range, I would raise to 7.5 BB or more denying UTG of an easy 4 bet bluff. So if I were to 3 bet AJs, I would make it much higher like 8bb.

8. A 3-bet would (presumably) be in the 1.5-1.8k range (2.2x to 2.5x). If he flats, and the blinds fold (a squeeze over a UTG open and a 3-bet from this stack size would be REALLY strong, and probably require a shove from the blinds) there would be about a 5 SPR (we’re the effective stack). If UTG 4-bets, there probably aren’t a ton of bluffs in that range (for the reasons Sean explained above-he can probably fold most of the hands we have in bad shape.) If we miss, it’s gonna be hard for us to fire multiple barrels/ get to showdown unimproved. Flatting reps a much wider range, allows us to exploit our postion post-flop with a higher SPR, invites squeezes from either blind (although not likely), and allows us to play against a wider UTG range (as opposed to a presumably much stronger call 3-bet OOP range). Given all that, I like a flat, although I don’t know our table image (are we 3-betting pre-flop a lot? Have we shown down any garbage recently? These would lead me to leaning towards a 3-bet more). Since this is way too long, I would say that if this is in our flatting range, then we shouldn’t really have a 3-bet range. I would definitely want to know what our image at the table looks like, though.

   • Table image isn’t too important IMO among good players. Everyone knows that my showing down a light 3bet once or twice doesn’t mean I’m going crazy and that my having shown down only good hands doesn’t mean I’m incapable of a light 3bet.

     • I’m honored that you responded!I meant more along the lines of how active you’ve been and how polarized/weighted your perceived 3-betting range would be. I don’t play at these stakes so I would have no idea how that stuff works! Thanks!

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