Thanks to everyone who’s participated in the Hand of the Week so far. Today’s post deals with the flop play.
This is from the $700 NLHE 1R1A WCOOP event. Blinds are 350/700/85. It’s well after the rebuy period but not particularly close to the bubble. Table is on the tough side, featuring many regs/pros, most notably Eugene Katchalov on my immediate left.
UTG is a regular tournament player. I have him at 25/14 over 300 hands, with a 64% continuation bet.
PokerStars – $665+$35|350/700 Ante 85 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 32.41 BB (VPIP: 21.28, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 47)
UTG: 63.83 BB (VPIP: 25.09, PFR: 14.14, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 292)
UTG+1: 22.54 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 14.56, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 104)
MP: 56.87 BB (VPIP: 25.45, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 56)
MP+1: 26.86 BB (VPIP: 19.21, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 152)
MP+2: 82.3 BB (VPIP: 17.82, PFR: 14.14, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 101)
CO: 25.66 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 16.06, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 196)
Hero (BTN): 38.02 BB
SB: 25.48 BB (VPIP: 35.58, PFR: 28.62, 3Bet Preflop: 12.80, Hands: 348)
9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.59 BB) Hero has Kd Ah
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold
Flop : (6.59 BB, 2 players) 5c 4s 5h
UTG bets 3 BB, Hero?
Post your preferred play here, and I’ll participate in the comments as I’m able and post results later this week. Be sure to consider your entire range as well as future action when deciding how to proceed!
Don’t forget to watch my guest Twitching on Carlos’ stream today at 4PM eastern! I’ll be playing the Big $162 and something fun on the side, probably PLO8 or Courchevel. The best place to watch is at http://www.multitwitch.tv/thinkingpokerandrew/carloswelch, though you should also subscribe to Carlos’ stream (even if you have no intention of watching, it will help his numbers!).
A question on pre-flop play (sorry, I’m not very experienced) and then a few comments.
1) Is the reason not to three-bet pre-flop that 38BB is too big a stack to get all-in with before the flop and you are worried that a four-bet would leave you in an awkward spot, or is more just that sometimes you’ll cold call here for deception?
2) I would get to this flop with a pretty wide range, that would include lots of small pairs, connector-type hands, many of which whiff but have over-cards (e.g. 10-9s), some broadway cards. The reason I’m asking (1) is because I want to know whether your flatting range here includes big pairs, or if this is an AKo-specific play?
3) Given how much air we have here and that there’s ~6.5BB in the pot, we probably have to at least call with something like AK for UTG’s bet not to show an immediate profit. (Then again, since UTG’s range is a fair bit stronger than yours at this point, maybe it’s not a disaster for their bet to be somewhat profitable?) I think I would definitely call here.
4) Raising seems spectacularly unlikely to get called by worse or fold out better. If villain would raise something like J10s UTG, then there’d be some protection value in raising, but I think the times you’ll run into a pair will cost you more than the equity you’ll pick up by folding out those live outs.
5) Absent an A or K, I’d fold to a decent-sized bet on the turn. If checked to, I think I’d bet straightening cards (which are, I think, better for my range than villain’s) and Qs (ditto). I would probably check an A or K to induce on the river, as I think I’d be surprised to get both turn and river calls from worse.
Very good questions, thanks!
1. Both. There are plenty of spots where I’d put a lot more than 38bb into the pot with AKo and be happy about it, but against an UTG raiser at a full ring table I don’t think we can feel too great about it.
2. I can see a case for flatting big pairs here. I see more of a case for flatting JJ (because like AK I don’t feel great about getting it in pre) and AA (because it will remain a monster on virtually all flops) than for QQ or KK.
3. Agreed, though I’d say it slightly differently. Take a look at the previous Hand of the Week. Rather than thinking in terms of denying Villain a profit, it’s better to think in terms of having a profitable opportunity ourselves. Because your range is not nutted and contains many hands weaker than AK, Villain has incentive to bet hands weaker than AK as well, which means that calling or raising should be profitable with a relatively strong hand like AK.
4. Agreed.
5. What would your bluffing range look like on a turned K or A? This is really what determines how wide you can value bet.
Thanks—very useful, though I really don’t know about 5 and will have to think about it.
I think we flat pre for a lot of reasons here. One of which is to give the villain the opportunity to do exactly this. He’s c-betting 65% of the time. This particular bet is just shy of half pot which doesn’t scare us particularly bad especially on such a dry board. So we have an excellent opportunity to take this pot away. But I think the best way to that here is to float. A big pair here isn’t going to raise. So if we call we give villain a chance to bet again. Then We raise. If it’s checked to us again we bet and likely take it down.
Let’s be as specific as we can. Which hands exactly are you trying to move Villain off of? What is the strongest hand you think he’ll fold on, say, a 9 turn?
Note: I’m away from my computer and can’t do any real calculations.
I think if we assume a decently tight range from UTG of 66+, 89s+, Axs+, AQ+ I think we do lack showdown equity (with this specific hand, even though I think this flop is better for our range) but we have loads of fold equity against this range. I think any Ax (that’s not a 5) is folding, no pair under TT is real happy with a call and is likely to fold a 9 turn. (With the clear exception of 99). So that leaves JJ-AA to be concerned with and we hold blockers to two of those.
If villain checks to us and we bet half pot, he only has to fold 1/3 of the time for us to make instant profit. (I think that’s right but if my numbers are wrong please correct me) i don’t think that folding frequency is far fetched at all. If he bets the same half pot he did on the flop I think we can raise it and get a fold with sufficient frequency that it would be a profitable play, since he will be unhappy committing half his stack this far from the money without a very strong hand.
*standard disclaimer* I’m still studying and learning. So if anything I say is way off, let me know. Thanks!
**edit** I think we flat preflop for a lot of reasons… Sorry for any confusion.
You’re behind overall.
Say he has 66+, ATs+, KQs+, AQo+
66-QQ= 42 combos of pairs where you have 6 outs
KK, 3 combos where you have 3 outs
AA, 3 combos where you have zero outs
And there are 28 over card combos you have dominated
You’re getting over 3:1 on your call, are ahead a fair amount of the time, and generally have some outs so I call.
When possible I think it’s best to do an actual equity calc rather than just how many combos Hero is ahead/behind. Although you’re right, it actually wasn’t immediately obvious to me that Hero was a dog to this range. I also think it’s a bit tight even for an UTG range, though it’s also possible that some of the hands we’d most like Villain to have would not bet this flop.
I do like calling preflop. I’m assuming here that we do not have info on the villain that he would 3-bet the flop and shove the river too often, or he folds or check/calls a flop raise too often to make clear our decision.
My flop raising range would include some non ace 5x hands, some big open ended backdoor flush draws , most pair combos 66 thru 10s and some air like suited connectors that can and can’t flush. A couple of AK combos would be in my range as well. With that being said, the majority of AKo is in my calling range. I want to see a turn, as I believe many cards could benefit my perceived range. Also an ace or king could give him some confidence and get more money in on the turn when i could be way ahead of his range. I believe I pick up some fold equity by getting to the turn, so I’d hate to get blown off the flop by a big 3-bet.
This is a relatively good flop for us and looks like a clear call. As mentioned in the preflop response, I think our preflop calling range has to be fairly strong vs. an UTG open 9-handed with potential squeezers in the blinds. I am assuming it’s something like AQ+,KQ,JJ-77.
Against villain’s UTG rainge, which we were previously guessing around 9% – something like {66+,AJo+,ATs+,KQo,KQs,KJs} or {55+,AQo+,AJs+,KQs,KJs,JTs,T9s}, this flop has changed nothing. Our range is capped in that we probably don’t have QQ+ (though I suppose we might have a combo or two of AA to avoid capping our calling range preflop, an issue which becomes more important with Katchalov in the small blind than vs. a random pro UTG), but we are doing pretty well with 44-47% equity overall on this flop before any betting takes place. I don’t think that either of us have a monster in our range (except in the very rare case where villain raises down to 55 UTG and flopped quads).
Since nothing has changed from preflop and Villain’s range is uncapped and has QQ+, I would expect villain to cbet at a very high frequency on this flop. Probably just about all of his range, though he might check/fold KQo (if he has it), KdQd and KdJd, which is just 14 combos (5 of which we block) and some of the mid-suited connectors, if they are in his range in the first place. He’s also not going to want to check/raise for value much, since we’ll often be able to check an A high hand back. Consequently, he can’t c/r bluff much either. So villain is probably cbetting 80-90% of his range here. If he were cbetting that much in general, we could punish him, but on this flop, I think he can cbet a high amount (significantly above a 64% average) without being exploitable because it is good for his range.
For the same reason, I think we call here a lot. We might fold hands like KQo, KdQd and KdJd (14 combos), which do particularly poorly against his range (23% equity, but that assumes we get to see the river, which isn’t necessarily the case). I don’t think we have a raising range here (maybe KQs with a BDFD, but only if we slowplayed some combos of AA to balance). In any event, even if we do have a raising range, I don’t think AK should be in it – it has 35-40% equity against villain’s cbetting range and is also getting some implied odds from dominated Ax hands, as well as the potential to win one bet from a pocket pair if it hits. It also has showdown value against weaker Ax hands – villain can’t relentless barrel us with a worse Ax because we have plenty of pairs in our range.
I think your analysis is spot on. But I’m curious what happens if we whiff again. I don’t see checking and/or calling down with A high being +ev. It seems to me that our strategy here is based less on making the best hand or bluff catching, and more on this being a great situation for us to use our position to win more chips than our cards say we are entitled to.
(Note: this was an honest question and not an argument. I never know how my tone comes off in posts)