This is actually a question that was posed on the Tournament Poker Edge forums, so I’m paraphrasing it a bit here. It began with me arguing against checking KQ on a Q72r for “pot control” because there are plenty of run-outs where you can bet three streets for value (more than just the obvious ones where you improve your hand). I did say, though, that checking Q9 (or whatever are the weakest Queens you would have in your range) made sense.
Q: Hero raises from late position with Q9s and is called by the button. The flop is Q72r. Being out of position with a one-pair hand, shouldn’t I frontload my value? Sure, top pair is a good hand now, but the board will get scary later, and it will get harder to get paid off. I can see check-calling hands like JJ, but Q9 seems good enough to value bet. Basically you’re saying its important to put hands like top pair (sets/2pair for balance) in our check/call range so that we can strengthen our check/call range as we will be folding too much to 2-3 barrels. Basically it allows us to get to showdown for cheaper with our marginal hand if we’re capable of taking the same line with our monsters/marginal hands? If Villain knows we’re capable of check/calling with monsters, they won’t bluff as much.
A: It’s not just that it protects some other part of your range. The point is that if you have a lot of hands that can’t stand up to multiple barrels after you check, your opponent has a lot of incentive to bluff into your checks. Thus, checking and calling with Q9 may be at least as profitable, if not moreso, than betting it.
With a stronger Q, this is less true, because when you check KQ you may miss value from QT or QJ. Because you have so many stronger hands in your betting range, though, Villain doesn’t have a lot of incentive to call you down with lots of hands weaker than Q9. Thus, betting Q9 for value across multiple streets isn’t going to be super-profitable.
In truth, because this is presumably one of the weakest Qx you could have, you shouldn’t really have a lot in the way of implied odds regardless of how you play it. In other words, your EV on this flop probably isn’t much greater than your equity, regardless of the line you take.
For more discussion of range construction, be sure to check out this week’s strategy segment on the podcast!