Q: I’ve got a hand that came up at Event 3 of the $40k Guarantee $200 buyin Deepstack event at The Bike (no rebuys, no add ons).
This is level 2 (150 – 300) and I ran the starting stack of 15k up to 28k. A player from middle position had 1 limper ahead of him and opened to 750. He just got to the table and has not played an orbit yet. This was his first hand. One person called and I called from the button holding 7h8d. The blinds call and so does the original limper. 6 players to the flop! Seeing 4+ people take the flop was the norm so far at this table. (BTW I’ve discussed this with a couple friends and they both said that it’s likely that 78off is not profitable even with stacks this deep and even knowing the table dynamic… Is this a situation that I should be passing up on often because I don’t often do it this early?)
The flop comes J 10 3 rainbow. Checks over to the original raiser and he bets 800. Folds to me on the button and I look to my left and the two people in the blinds have no interest in this pot. I know that this is a weak attempt at a cbet and he’s not comfortable at all with his hand displaying classic signs of weakness. The strongest he could be a hand like A10 or an under pair to the board or he whiffed with something like AQ and KQ also crossed my mind. I just tried to rip the pot away from him so I raised to 2200 and it folds back to him. He painfully calls and it’s heads up. The turn is a 7 so I’m paired up! No back door flush draws came in. He checks and I cut out 3500 (should I be betting more to get this guy off his hand?). The river comes a 9. His mood quickly changed and he bets out 3500 making sure that he used the exact same chips I used. I want to fold. KQ came but I convinced myself he could easily be doing this with 10 9 or J 9 and I figured that the pot was too big to fold with the worst straight so I did end up calling and he indeed turned over the KQ.
Any critique would be highly appreciated!
A: First off, pre-flop can’t be too bad, as you have a remotely playable hand plus the button with reasonably deep stacks and a lot of people in the pot, but I agree that it’s probably a fold.
Props for your attentiveness on the flop. It’s great that you’re aware of both the players behind you and the pre-flop raiser’s sizing/mood. I think you would do well to be more conscious of the pot size, though. It seems like you sized your raise relative to his bet without much consideration for the pot. If 6 people pay 750 preflop, we’d be talking about 4500 in the pot. After he bets and you raise to 2200, there is 7500 out there and he has to call just 1400. A much bigger raise, to 3500 or 4000, would still need to work less than half the time to show a profit and I think have a much more realistic chance of winning the pot (and be more consistent with how you should play a strong hand). It’s worth nothing that your hand is pretty bad for bluffing because you have very few outs against a likely calling range, and even when you catch as well as you could, you won’t have the nuts, and the fact that a draw got there will be quite obvious. Still, if your read is good enough, it’s fine.
I have the same problem with your turn sizing: it’s too small relative to the pot.
As for the river, there’s so shame in calling. You’re getting a great price, and you can afford to pay off KQ quite a bit here. I think overall you could stand to be more conscious of both the price you are getting and the price you are offering your opponents when you bet. Thanks for writing!
Wait you were at the Bike and you didn’t give me a buzz?
Oh never mind.
I didn’t realize it wasn’t you.