Episode 123: Carlos Ascendant

27 thoughts on “Episode 123: Carlos Ascendant”

1. Oh god, that video is amazing! Love it.

   • Thanks Tracy. I’m so glad people like that video. It means a lot to me.

2. Ascendant? C’mon man! That sounds way more majestic than it should, lol.

   I had so much fun recording this episode. I remember when I was going to visit GC and my grandma was worried about me going to a foreign country with “that white man who look like Jesus.” I promised her I wouldn’t accept any sugary beverages from him.

   After this win, I think she’d be all for me going to any tournament even if it was held in Yemen.

3. I think I told you this at lunch, but I cried when I saw that PPA video.
   It is just beautiful.

   • Yep. I think we all did. I meant every word too. Maybe Sheldon should check it out.

4. congrats carlos! sick results and a great vid.

   • Thank you wonka! Glad you liked it.

5. Here’s my PPA video for those looking for a link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRu_8K-zY9c

   While you’re there, check out the other Fight4Poker videos and notice the diversity of the people who play this game. Afterwards, add to that diversity by submitting your own!

6. Great episode, great video, so happy for Carlos for the big win! It’s been fun to follow Carlos’s progression and learn along with him.

   Also, I liked Andrew’s reminder at the end of the episode about how we all end up back in the trenches again after these wins… Good reminder that the battle is just beginning and not to let variance get the best of us. Keep up the grind! You’ve proven to all of us that hard work pays off.

   • Thank you! Yes that was a good reminder. I’ve vowed to just think happiness first going forward. Even when those big trenches come, I can think about this win and put that wide smile on my face. My goal is to be like Tommy Angelo. They can’t end my zen.

     • This is a great attitude; just remember that one day you will run as bad as you ran good that weekend. Thankfully, good players don’t lose quite as much when they run bad as they win when they run good.

       Also, and I’m sure you thought of this, don’t forget to account for tax implications of what you do during a year when you make a big score.

       • Definitely Nate. Thanks, I will keep this in mind.

7. Congratulations Carlos! Treat the money as capital and get staked for both online and offline games. You are good enough now and people will want to invest in you. If you run bad on your own roll and life throws up situations where you need money (health reasons, family, whatever), you could easily find yourself back where you started. Don’t feel bad if things don’t work out for your backers.

   As long as you play your best, then they are getting good odds on their investment. Play without fear and with aggression whenever it is appropriate. That’s what any good backer would want you to do. Do not let the stakes dictate your decisions, just do what you know is right.

   You deserve this break. Now it’s time to be real smart. Keep the money in the bank, where it is earning interest. You can provide documented proof to backers that you aren’t broke. They will respect the fact that you are being sensible with what is essentially still a relatively small amount of personal capital. Good luck!

   • I’m gonna keep selling action live since the buy-ins are higher. That big live score is coming soon.

     Online, I mainly play $10-30 games so I think I am ok there with 20K set aside for a roll.

     I don’t think I’m good yet, but I’m getting better. Just reviewed this HH with AB and he told me to steal more in the late stages. I did and took 2nd in 15K for another $3K last night. I basically went from a nit to a nit with gears.

     My degree is in Finance. I never did much with it so I’ve forgotten a lot. The one thing I do remember is compound interest. Those lessons changed my life. I’m all about these Roths and mutual funds.

     • Well you probably know best and of course you have Andrew and Nate to advise you.

       What do you think your ROI is in games that average $20 buyin? 15% would seem like a very high ROI to me, but even then that is a huge amount of poker that you need to play just to earn $200 a day.

       Do you think that playing a lot of these games will make you a much better poker player, or just better at beating the $10-$30 games?

       Completely hypothetical question…

       …If someone asked to stake you for every $200-$1000 buy-in mtt you could find time to play over the next 12 months based on a make-up deal where you get 50% of net profits but agree to play no other online poker in that period, would you agree if you felt comfortable doing business with that person?

       For arguments sake, the deal would be that if you were losing after 12 months then both parties would just walk away with no money owed by you.

       I don’t know what a Roth is, but I already want one!

       • Good questions.

         My ROI on Carbon was 18% over 1300 games. Not a lot, but I am a much better player now. I would expect my ROI for ABI $30 games to be around 20-25%, maybe higher.

         $200 a day sounds crazy to me. $100 a day is plenty for what I need. More than enough in fact.

         Playing poker helps me to get better somewhat, but really I do this away from the table. What usually happens is I find a close spot while playing, then study it off the felt. To be honest, I know guys like Andrew Brokos and Phil Ivey (you like that?) put in incredible amounts of effort to get as good as they are. I don’t want to work that hard. If I can make $100 a day and then gradually move up from there, I’m cool. I don’t ever see myself playing nosebleed cash games or even online 1Ks. Working up to that level doesn’t sound like much fun to me.

         I love this hypothetical btw!

         I would 100% turn the deal down. If you mean live MTTs, I might have an edge but would be bored to tears one tabling those for a year. If you mean online, I would not have an edge and would almost be guaranteed to be a loser after a year. Losing sucks. I play bad players in small tournaments because winning every now and then makes me happy. I won’t ever give that up even if it means moving down from where I am now at some point. I could play max $10 games and be happy as long as I was winning often and making $100 a day.

         Dan, google “Roth IRA”. It will change your life. Thanks for the questions bro.

         • Carlos, I tried reading about Roth IRAs but my mind quickly began to drift and I soon adopted the glazed expression that’s usually reserved for when an old guy sits down next to me in a bar and starts talking about immigration. I’ll take your word for it that they are a good thing to get involved with though.

           I never got beyond stage one of microstakes with poker, myself. The secret to beating these games can, I’m told, can be summed up in two words – stop bluffing. Sadly, I was never able to take this on-board and still can’t.

           Like you though, I don’t like losing and only ever deposited a few dollars on any sites. I have been much more successful as an affiliate. My failure at the online felt and subsequent (relative) triumph in my new role has confirmed that the old adage is true (at least for dunces like me) – if there’s a gold-rush, be the guy that’s selling shovels.

           I guess it’s pointless arguing that you might-well work out how to beat those higher stakes games, given that I don’t really know what I’m talking about and (as you’ve pointed out) the process would make you miserable.

           I do think it is possible that you underestimate your potential though (an endearing trait, when so many people offer little save for an inflated ego and an endless supply of bombast). It can be tempting to mistake the confidence and self-entitlement of those that were born to rule for genetic intelligence and ability.

           I thoroughly recommend listening to SuperPeople by The Notations, pouring yourself a glass of good single-malt whisky, entering the highest buy-in mtt on Stars tonight and 6-bet shoving jack-nine off-suit during the first orbit.

           Good luck Carlos! I’m not much good with statistics, but I would imagine that at least 40% of ThinkingPoker listeners regard you as the poker player they would most like to have a beer with!

           • First off, classic post and thanks for the kind words.

             Second, why would anyone read in the YouTube age? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTEzh6gla7I
             (This guy does leave out the fact that you dont just put the money into an IRA directly. You invest in something, like a mutual fund, and then put the investment into an IRA.)

             Thirdly, I’ll be good enough at poker to make Phil Ivey ask for a “Carlos Welch autograph” before anybody convinces me to drink alcohol.

8. My mom was an accountant all her life. She would go to business’ and tell them where the money went. She left me with two good concepts before she left this planet. She said-
   “Son, pay your taxes. And above all else. SAVE YOUR MONEY!”.

   I wanted to be creative and was never good with numbers. But those two things stuck in my mind and it carried me through the long lonely struggles. An audit never fazed me and I been through a couple. Besides even if I didn’t I always had that BR to get me out. Mama didn’t lie.

   Andrew gives you some great advice at the end of the podcast.
   “The trenches get deeper.” he said. Yes they do. Enjoy the good times but always keep your
   eyes on the prize. Congrats, brother.

   • She sounds like a wise lady Keone. Thank you man.

9. Congrats Carlos, 1st big win of many.

   Nate, I’m giving in and going to google Bazian. Can you tell me how to spell this?

   • Thanks Mike! Gonna try to keep putting a bunch of smaller ones together in the meantime.

10. “Bayesian”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference#Informal

11. Awesome episode, just 4 great people shooting the breeze. My ambitions for Vegas this summer are (3) Win Seniors bracelet (2) Win ME (1) Meet “the Carlos Welch”

    • Ha! Yall folk crazy man. I aint nobody. Will be cool to meet a man who can run farther than my car does before it overheats though.

12. Congrats Carlos! It was great to hear all the happiness in this episode.

13. Mike / Nate – One of my motivations for listening to the entire back catalogue of Thinking Poker Podcast (I came in originally around number 80 when it was on pokernews) was to see if I could find out what these “basing effects” were in terms of putting people on ranges and also what other things there might be outside my knowledge. In terms of basing effects I drew a blank but I found plenty of other gems. When I finally got back to the same episode I heard it properly as Bayesian which I knew from my maths background.

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