I made a pretty bad fold last night. I’m more than a bit embarrassed to post it, and I’ll just ask that those of you not familiar with the sort of game/player described here hold your judgment. I promise you that this isn’t as bad as it looks.
I was playing a particularly nitty $5/$10/$20 game where pretty much everyone except me was quite reluctant to lose whatever they had on the table. Naturally, I’d been leaning on them, especially the player on my right, even harder than usual. I’d also been catching kind of well, so there were a few pots where I actually had the goods but didn’t go to showdown,which probably made me seem even more aggressive than I was.
Villain open limps the CO, I limp behind with As 8h on the Button, SB folds, BB completes, and the straddle checks.
Flop ($80 in pot) Qs 8d 3s. Checks to me, I bet $20, BB calls, straddle folds, CO raises to $80, I call, BB folds. This is a tricky spot because although CO’s line is pretty suspect and I block several of the strongest hands he’s representing, it’s also a kinda odd spot for him to bluff. Then again, the underbet can induce some weird stuff, especially in a player who’s already annoyed. Plus backdoor nut draw!
Turn ($260 in pot) 8s. That’s the best card in the deck for me, unless it isn’t. Villain checks, and so do I.
River ($260 in pot) Ts. Villain bets $175. I raise to $375. He seems to waffle between calling and folding, counts at another $200, then suddenly grabs more chips and makes it $700 to go. I try to talk to him a bit, don’t pick up much but he definitely doesn’t seem uncomfortable. I fold.
There’s a lot going for a fold here, especially when you realize that if this is a bluff, it would probably be the first time in this guy’s life that he ever three-bet bluff the river. Then again, I have a tendency to bring that out in people!
I’m fine with folding the As here. But the As with a hugely significant blocker, getting better than 2.5:1? Against a player who is visibly annoyed with me? Think I shoulda called this one, but it’s closer than it seems when you just look at the hand details.
For what it’s worth, I did consider jamming as well, as 33 is the hand I’m most likely to lose to if I call, but Q8 and even QQ aren’t out of the question for Villain, and frankly I don’t think he was in the mood to fold a full house to me.
The hand took a long time on the river, so when it’s over there was a lot of speculation about what we had. Someone claimed we both had nothing, someone else insisted we both had big hands. I said something along the lines of, “I folded a big hand. Not a lot of people are good enough to bluff there,” but that didn’t get any kind of reaction from Villain. I have to imagine he would have been sorely tempted to show a bluff at that point (he still had his cards), but he also didn’t muck and then insist he was bluffing, which would be a plausible reaction if he weren’t bluffing, so who’s to say?
If I could have my cards back, I’d call. You?
I’d fold here every time given reads. Yes it’s close to the top of your range and you are getting odds, but still I think making exploitive folds against a nit in this spot is still correct. Is this guy really bluffing enough to deserve a pay off here with his boats?
I actually would have guess this is a hand you’d be proud of. Not everyone can make this fold.
So he just has KsQx like a nutter?
Beauty of those live games — can safely raise or bet fold.
Can generally play close to perfectly if deep. Flush rarely even good there and most are folds.
Brian
If he has Js9s here, is he showing it for some sort of royal flush reward from the casino? Because otherwise, that seems like a plausible hand to add to his value side.
*straight* flush reward
you were there and all, but it seems like the world’s easiest call to me, even more so considering the meta in play. $325 to win a pot of $1660. it’s not like i’m happy when he pops the river, but break-even is < 20% for fcksakes. and you're losing to 3 combos of 33, 1 of Js9s, and a severely discounted 3 combos of QQ and 2 combos of Q8s.
i'd call that 5 combos total. i come from a LHE background and in LHE you don't ever fold to 5 combos. also, it's not like your line gives that much indication you're necessarily that strong by the river. i wouldn't be that surprised by either a spazz bluff (he sized tiny so he's getting a decent price on a rebluff) or spazz value raise by villain here, and could see you being good as much as 40%.
like villain’s thought process, in full, could be “this aggro mofo never checks back the nut flush draw or a big hand on the turn. he’s never got it!! raise biiiiitch.” and he doesn’t seem nervous because he’s confident in his [incorrect] read and thinks you’re just tanking.
he only needs to be this guy 1/5th of the time.
His waffling on the river would make me believe he had a value hand (i.e. flush+) that he decided to (in his mind thinly) raise the river. Good fold.
I’d call as well. There’s very few hands in his range that have us beat.
We have the nut flush and it was a limped pot. Even with a small pocket pair in late position I’d like to think that even nit would raise to get some value out of potential set mining, especially in a multi-way pot, but in my experience weaker players will limp-call a lot with small pocket pairs.
QQ, TT, + 88 would raise, KQ might raise (depends if it is suited), and any small pocket pairs are up in the air.
Given the information we have and your propensity to torture fellow nits (you’re almost cannibalistic, Andrew) he may have a boat but his line of play does not indicate that. I think he got over-eager and spewy and said “screw it, I’m done letting this guy bully me all night.”
If he shows a full house, we shrug it off. Every nit has his day.
Eff it! Its only money! Call
nitty villain in a nitty game check-raises a flop, checks a paired turn, and then suddenly 2/3 psb leads the river.
this line is nearly always expresses value rather than a schizo bluff line (i.e. villain randomly decides to check-raise bluff flop, then gets cold feet on turn, but then suddenly grows the heart of a beast at the river and unleashes a b/3b bluff).
far more common is that such an erratic line is the transparent reflection of whipsawing value (i.e. villain flops a set on flop and check-raises for value/protection against a flush draw; then turns a full house and is no longer anxious of the fd and checks hoping to trap an aggressive hero; the river arrives and villain regrets checking turn, and desperately leads river out of fear of losing value, only to fist pump b/3b when raised).
alternatively, TT also fits the above narrative whereby villain check-raises flop thinking/hoping TT is good on Q8xss, but checks paired turn, and then leads miracle river when he fills up.
this is a fold.
I could see villain x/ring your flop minbet for value/protection with some medium strength made hands like Q9 or even K8 and A8. If you bet 150 OTT, I think he always calls with those hands, and he’ll probably x/r with his boats. I doubt he ever goes for a double x/r as a bluff, so I like a bet/fold OTT.
33 just makes so much sense here, as does QQ that open limped hoping to LRR but his plan failed. But there aren’t a lot of hands worse than yours that make as much sense. Combined with his dog-and-pony show on the river of waffling between calling and folding — then raising — that is a huge live tell of strength. It’s like someone who sighs and shakes his head as if he got the worst card ever, then shoves. It’s never a bluff. This is an easy fold and one I would not lose sleep over. The opening sentence of this post (“pretty bad fold”) is misleading. “If I could have my cards back I’d call” is second-guessing of the “think long think wrong” variety. It’s not that he’s never bluffing (or value betting worse); it’s that he’s not bluffing often enough to justify the call at this price. It’s a fold every day of the week.
This is a fold all day IMO.
People don’t bluff even nearly enough on the river, especially not a 3-bet.
Good fold…
The guy is not happy with you. If he is bluffing to beat you he wants to show you so he can… well, SHOW you.
He had spades or QQ. HE doesn’t call you with anything less… I would say spades. He wants your money, he believes his spades are good, his river hesitation and then three bet is the uncertainty about you holding a FH, but he decides to make the bet anyway. After all what are the odds?
This is a call. I actually could see a random fishy live player playing AA like this. It happens: 1) try to get sneaky with monster preflop. no luck, 2) try again, checkraise flop. 3) check turn to see your action and avoid getting reraised, with plan to call or reraise your bet. 4) river comes, villian is frustrated that you checked turn, senses weakness, and decides he hasn’t gotten enough value for his “sure thing” AA. V bets out 175, get raised and says “screw it, Im tired of this guy pushing me off hands. No way this guy called my flop chk-raise with a backdoor flush” and puts in a reraise. He seems calm because he thinks he is good. He sees AA and thinks he deserves the pot. His play is wobbly because he is not quite sure what he is doing with AA. One question, what do you think villian thought YOU had? Q-rag in your range after not raising pre I’m thinking.
Hard to get a feel without being at the table, but I have no problem putting AA and maybe even KK in his range..people love the AA..does he seems smart enough to raise 33 pre? I could remove those from his range… You gotta be good 20% of the time..
my 2c…
Based on your description it seems like a fold to me. I am surprised you call it a bad fold meanwhile describing the villain’s action as perhaps a line that would be a first in his life-if in fact he is bluffing. Of course if you have to call only 5-10 percent of the pot on the river, that’s a different story. As described, I don’t see a call would be the best option.
Let’s put all the possible combos aside, the only thing you are beating here is a pure bluff. A person that is reluctant to lose money is not 3bet raising you with any type of a flush especially after you call his raise on the flop, mind you a 4x raise. Also, it’s curious that he raises you 4x on a flush and straight possible flop and checks once the full house comes.
Finally, you mentioned that you considered jamming but that doesn’t really make sense to me here. Anything better calls you and anything worse folds. Do you think you can get value from a Ks? I think you achieve nothing here by jamming.
My 2c, it’s obviously a theoretical call, for the reasons you described (you are at the top of your range and have a blocker to some of his value hands). From the post, it seems clear that Andrew regards this as a trivial call from a GTO perspective.
However, as Zach points out, the live tell (I might call, I might fold – no I’ll raise) is a huge sign of strength. Obviously, none of us were there, but when I read the description of his waffling weakness and then sudden raise, I immediately said – that’s a textbook tell for a nutted hand. Villain doesn’t sound like someone who is going to run some kind of reverse tell. As others point out, the “Ed Miller” principal that villains don’t c/r or 3bet bluff the river (unless they are really good) reinforces that read. Still, the tell (as described) puts me in the fold camp (given the overall description of villain).
Also, as Gareth implies (I think), this villain is never raising a worse flush – he snaps the perceived hyper-aggro hero with Kx (and he’s never thinking of folding it), but he’s not 3betting Ks (much less Js or worse) flush on a 4-flush board which is also paired. Andrew’s comment about not having a problem folding As but being concerned about the boat blocker means Andrew is not concerned about villain value-raising worse, so this is mostly directed at the other commentators who think villain could be raising a flush.
I agree the raise on the river is suspect for sure. But I could see bad players think they are ahead in this spot w say KsKx or worse even. I’m not second guessing Andrews read, for sure the most likely situation is a boat/value bet cuz ya 3bet bluffing the river is pretty icy. But I’d probably call hoping the guy was tilting/fishy. But I’d never be sitting at $5/$10 either..;) interesting hand
I’d like to back up a bit and ask about the preflop action. If the game is fairly nitty, why not raise this A8o on the button? I know you’ve been punishing the player on your right, but unless there’s a sense that he’s catching on or is capable of adjusting I am inclined to go ahead and raise this hand. It’s true that he may be playing some fairly strong hands passively (he might very well have better aces, for example), but if he’s playing fit-or-fold on the flop we can probably still win the pot a huge amount of the time.
I might be too focused on the Tommy Angelo “bread and butter” thing here, but creating situations where you’re in position as the preflop aggressor against one or two opponents, especially with a reasonable hand like this, seems like it can’t be too terribly spewy. If you have good control of your opponents – in this case it sounds like you do – this should be even more true, right?
Full disclosure – I’ve been reading some stuff recently by Doug Hull and Ed Miller, who advocate almost never limping preflop, so it’s possible I’m sort of taking this concept and running with it. What do you think of this philosophy, and when do you think it’s a good idea to deviate from it? Also, does the presence of the UTG straddle in your A8 hand affect this decision one way or the other?
I think a bunch of replies to this don’t realize that you have the nut flush on the river, I initially missed that and wondered what you were doing on the river 🙂
Saying that, even then I’d be very suspicious of the turn check, after the flop x/r, and the river lead+3bet … so much so that I question the river raise. In these spots I’ve seen otherwise calling type players throw away a lot of flush hands to a river raise. Maybe he bet/calls KsQ/QJs, and maybe he checks turn with them, but he for sure bet/folds 7s6s.
To look at it the other way his most likely “value” range on the flop is going to be sets/Q8 and flush draws, and the turn check indicates he’s given up with nothing or isn’t worried about more cards (or, _maybe_, assumes you’ll just bet when he checks so he can x/r overvalue flushes?). He’s unlikely turning a flush into a bluff on the river, so he has to be bet/3bet complete air? I mean maybe he’s going insane overvaluing Ks, but even then he’s not doing it enough of the time even with the price you are getting.
I also wouldn’t 100% remove TT from his range at any point.
And if we assume he can bluff the river, then he should mostly (always?) be doing that with hands that have an 8 in them … so you have a blocker to his bluffs.
Very interesting spot, and while this might be correct fold or bad fold (from GTO perspective (and tbh I haven’t done math)) but it all boils down to how often do you think villain will bluff this river. So I wouldn’t go too hard on myself and you should probably feel good to being disciplined to make that tough fold 🙂
btw Very nice blog/podcast, I’m subscribed 🙂
I feel like QQ and 33 would bet the turn after check raising on the flop. Any 8 or flush draw will likely call. Maybe 10-10 would play this way, but I don’t feel like I would play the other pocket pairs with a check on the turn unless I’m just so sure that my opponent has four to a nut flush. Even then, I feel like I would lean toward a smallish bet.
I don’t see him ever bluffing, $325 to call? How does he not think you are calling with any TP here. It’s just a silly amount for anyone to raise and rep fold equity. Easy fold.
I would have folded. The key for me is that he check raised the flop, but then checked the turn, and then essentially three bets your flop raise. To me, it raises a lot of red flags when someone check raises the flop, and then checks the turn. He was trying to set up a trap. It’s the some logic when someone bets pre-flops, hits the flop, but then checks the flop to set up a check-raise. My guess is he had 3-3, maybe Q-8 suited. I think Q-Q is unlikely, he probably would have tried to isolate more pre-flop. Same with T-T.
I’m not saying no one plays this way, but I just don’t get the idea of setting a trap after you check raise. I suppose a check can add some confusion about the strength of your hand, but the check raise has already announced that you have a strong hand (or at least are repping one). So, who is going to be trapped by a check raiser for any significant amount unless they themselves have a very strong hand? Maybe I’m just not seeing the value in it, but the line doesn’t make sense to me with flopping a set and turning a full house.
I don’t agree with the logic, but I know players that would make this exact move. The logic is that they’ve hit their set/house, so they think that the best way to extract value is by doing nothing and hoping the opponent bets. It’s more common after someone raises pre-flop and then checks a flop on which they hit big. Sometimes the goal is to make it seem like the first check-raise was a bluff raise, in lieu of a show of strength, hence the check on the turn.
I actually recently had a conversation about a similar situation with a friend who I consider an above average 2/5 player. He check raised the flop, the turn gave him a full house, but he checked. The river completed a flush. My friend bet, and the opponent folded.