$5/$10/$20 game with $2500 stacks.
UTG2 opens to $60, gets four calls, I call with 85s in the BB.
Flop A85r (no backdoor for me), checks to the second caller, who bets $170. I call, everyone else folds.
Turn A. We both check.
River 4.
At this point I’m almost certain he has a bare Ace, and 85 is the absolute worst hand I could have. In fact, my range otherwise consists only of Ax, straights, and flopped sets. In one sense, that makes it an easy bluff with 85, and I shouldn’t even really bet that much as Villain has an easy fold with most Ax (not that he should be betting that on the flop anyway, but this guy would). Then again, LOL at some live player, even a nit (which this guy is) folding trips for one bet on the river. $525 down the drain.
Don’t take the wrong lesson from this. There are plenty of situations where you should be thinking about how you’d play different parts of your range and actively thinking about your best bluffing candidates, using the strength of your range to determine whether you can value bet or what sizing to use, etc. Those are situations where you aren’t sure what your opponent will do with a specific hand, or you aren’t sure what he has. This just wasn’t one of those situations.
I think you can still balance in this situation, but the bet-sizing should be a shove rather than $525.
A very good point. I’ve been thinking a lot about this myself lately. Future blog post or article forthcoming.
How would you have played 98s here?
Folding the flop, I imagine.
Correcto.
What would you do with aces full here, bet $525? If he calls with Ax %100 you might be missing value. Would he find a fold with A2 against a bet of $700 or $800? Whatever the amount you would bet with aces full I think that is the amount you should bluff with here. Sure you are ‘balancing’, but it’s not a GTO balance it’s an exploitative balance.
That last line might not make sense. It’s just that the 2 combos of 85s are the nut bluffing hands, and it feels like such a waste not to bluff with them. There are spots where it’s 100% a never bluff spot, I just don’t think this is one.
I’m not following why you feel like you’re range is so defined on this hand and especially that you would think Villian would have anyway to judge that for himself. The tone of this post was that Villian was somehow supposed to know he was probably beat (“Villain has an easy fold with most Ax”) but I don’t see this hand that way at all. You say, “In fact, my range otherwise consists only of Ax, straights, and flopped sets.” Wouldn’t you be betting most of these hands on the turn (especially sets and Ax)? Also are you saying you would NEVER try and float/bluff on this flop with air or worse than 85? I just think that both you and the Villain’s check on the turn give away far too much information for you to make that river bet. For him, the turn check gives him enough reason to think that you might be weak. For you, if you’re really 100% confident he has Ax, his turn check is likely for pot control so he’s probably ecstatic when he only has to call 1 bet on the last 2 streets. If you want him to fold after the turn check, I think the only chance for that to happen is to make a large enough bet on the river that he can’t snap call without some serious thought.
It’s really hard for Andrew to call flop without a made hand top pair or better or exactly 76, because there are so many live hands still to act behind. This makes peeling the flop with, say, 97 or 98, much less a pure float, not a very attractive option. Thus, when a 4 rivers, Andrew’s range is extremely strong, and the combos of 85s are the only bluffing combos he will have. Unfortunately for Andrew, there’s basically zero chance that a live player is going to fold trips for a pot sized bet here because of the absolute hand value. I do think this is just about a perfect spot for an overbet with both bluffs and value hands, just because Villain rates to have trips here quite often, and the times he doesn’t have trips, he likely has a hand that won’t be calling very much anyway.
Very well said Matt. I’ll just add it’s not only the risk of other people having strong hands, it’s the risk of Villain having a very strong hand. To be honest, even the A3 he showed up with really isn’t strong enough to bet into this many people. He’s going to be behind any calling range.
Why “call on the flop and betting the river” with our strong range is better than “raising the flop”?
It’s not. With the very strongest hands, such as sets, there’s a lot to be said for raising (or leading) the flop. Bottom two, however, is not a strong enough hand to be trying to put four or even three bets into the pot.
I am not experienced deep stack cash player so…. my opinion could be way off but….
With bottom two you block low sets, if you run into AAA – it’s cooler. I don’t know specifics of your game so I don’t know can we discount A8/A5 but you still block them.
“Slowplaying” I think you miss value from AK/AQ (esp. that deep) and if he has weaker Ax and if he is not going to put more money in – you don’t gain anything from slowplaying – no option to win more, but you can loose more.
Once you take that line:
1) I don’t think you have strong hands so it is easy for him to call
2) If we put him on Ax – I don’t think he has to fold
3) if he don’t have Ax – it is very likely our hand is best (may be I should say we will go to showdown easy because he will not bluff with pairs)
So my opinion – raise the flop or as played – give up after that turn
Anyway -I could be way off – if you consider that I improve my understanding for the game using your videos 😀
Yeah, I think you’re just overestimating how strong of a hand this is. If I check-raise the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river, do you really think he’s going to call down all the way with AK? You’re arguing, correctly, that better hands are somewhat unlikely, but it takes more than that to bet/raise for value. You still have to identify second-best hands that will pay you. Basically, I’m not slowplaying, the hand just isn’t good enough to raise for value. If he checks at some point, I can value bet a future street, but even if he bets three times I really just have a bluff-catcher.
Remember too that this isn’t a heads up pot. He bet into five people on the flop. Think about how much stronger a pre-flop raiser’s range needs to be to open with five people left to act behind him than with just one or two (ie from the button or SB). The same concept applies to the flop: he will be bluffing far less often in this spot, and will need a much stronger hand to bet for value, than he would if this were a heads up pot.
I agree with everything. So….
For you – you have 2 streets value, may be 3d street as a blufcatcher.
I estimate that you have 3 streets of value or 4 streets if he overplay one pair.
I guess best way to say my point is that with AK/AQ it is easier for him to keep pot small and to put only 2 bets in the pot, but if we play in more aggressive way with these hands he can put 3 or 4 bets in the pot. Let’s say he put more money 33% and fold 66%. You miss value only 33% and there is no difference, just higher risk – 66%. But most of the time you have best hand, combined with missing a lot of chips 33%….
Also my point about balancing (even if I am wrong and there is no benefit for you – you can tell me and I will learn something new 😀 ) – you need to balance against good players and when you don’t know what to do or how to exploit. When you can exploit and take good decisions – there is not that much need to balance. So do you really need to balance in this spot?