This is a continuation of What’s Your Play? KJo in the BB. For a discussion of the pre-flop action, please see this post.
UTG is a typical splashy recreational player, with lots of limping and calling pre-flop followed by lots of checking and folding post-flop. He has about $800 in his stack.
HJ is the best of the competition by a long shot. He definitely knows how to take advantage of different types of players by isolating, barreling, floating, squeezing, etc., and he’s definitely made some plays like these against me in good spots. I don’t have enough experience with him to say whether he’s actually balancing against me or whether he’s playing more of a Level 2, “This guy opens a lot so I’m just going to three-bet him with any two” sort of strategy. He’s definitely unbalanced, in a good way, against the less tough competition. I’m playing about $2500, and he covers.
UTG limps for $10. Three players fold, then HJ raises to $40. Hero calls from the BB with Ks Jd. UTG calls.
Flop Kc 7s 6d ($118 in pot). Hero checks, UTG checks, HJ bets $65, Hero calls, UTG folds.
Turn 2s ($248 in pot). Hero checks, HJ bets $125, Hero calls.
River Ts ($498 in pot). Hero checks, HJ bets $400, Hero?
I think the flop and turn play is pretty uncontroversial, but if you have questions, I’m happy to address them.
Post your thoughts and preferred action on the river, and I’ll post my own thoughts as well as the results towards the end of next week.
My first response is this is why I would have raised pre-flop….
I think I lean towards call here. It seems like if he’s a good player, he will know he can try to rep something strong considering both a flush draw and straight draw got there. Against a worse player, I would think fold, but a better player could try and rep that. Putting that ability to bluff in his range just really weakens it to the point where I would guess it’s +EV.
The first thing to think about here is where KJ fits into the hands we can have by the river given the line we’ve taken. We can have KQ and we can also have KTs and *maybe* KTo although that may be stretching our preflop strategy a tad thin. I don’t think we have 77 or 66 here; flatting flop and turn seems like a good way to potentially miss value from a K. Given that we called preflop, it seems like we can have 2 conceivable straight draws that backed into flushes, 98ss and 54ss, but I’m not sure if we just call turn if we hadn’t turned a flush draw. I’m not sure we ever float ace high with backdoor spades here with a third player in the pot also (although we expect him to do a lot of folding on the flop, so I suppose that might make this slightly more of a possibility). I think we also might get to the river with 88, 99, and TT (which of course makes a set).
Ultimately, I don’t think we have very many worse hands on the river here in terms of absolute value. But we do have the Ks, a backdoor flush blocker, and an opponent that started with an overly wide range making a bet that probably polarizes that range. I also think it’s a bet he might very well make with his entire range for taking this line given that he may well think we are capped at one pair, and that this particular river card fills the two most obvious draws on the board. We need to call with a little over half our range to prevent villain from printing money with this bet, and I think I’d rather bluff catch this particular hand (with the Ks in it) than KQo with no spade, although I might end up calling with both. So I’m calling and saying nice hand if he backed into a flush or has 98 or a set or whatever else.
No way we can fold now after just flatting pre. River is a snap call I think. In fact, I am more inclined to call given that he triple barreled and bombed the river on a scare card.
I’d be more worried if he’d checked back at some point or if he’d bet the river a bit smaller. Also, having the Ks blocker here is nice.
seems like a fold.
it’d be a more difficult fold had villain truly bombed the river for his remaining $600.
unless he contemptuously views you as a bad, nitty player, what adept villain expects Kx to fold given that particular run out and action? river looks like soul-owning thin value from AK and/or KQ, or fat value from 2P, straights, and flushes.
Matt did a great job of breaking down our range, and I agree with him we are probably close to the bottom of our range to get here (Although our range is also quite narrow). No one has yet considered villain’s range, other than to assume a player of his type is bluffing a lot. But let us start by assuming he is barreling in a somewhat balanced way and see where that leaves us.
The only possible 1 pair hands betting this for value would be AK or KQ, if that. On the turn, he shouldnt be continuing with bluffs that have no equity (if he is balanced), so the most obvious hands to barrel would be 89, 54, 2 spades, and maybe gutshots like T9, T8, etc. Would he barrel the turn with a hand like 56 or 78 (for 1 middle pair)? I wouldnt think so. So when the river hits, all his semi-bluffs got there except 54 (also his gutshots hit a T, would he bluff with this?). All in all, he has a lot of value hands (all sets, some 2 pairs, all flushes, 89, AK?, KQ?). And while our Kspade is a nice blocker, it isn’t nearly as significant as the A. With his range being wide, he is probably playing lots of suited cards, and he could quite possibly have 100% of pre-flop spade combos still in his range on this river (assuming he is cbetting this flop with all backdoors). With him putting in a full pot sized bet, I think we need to feel pretty confident he is just 3 barreling with pure air to find a call. Given Andrew’s description, Im not sure my confidence is high enough, so I think I would probably fold. Andrew, have you played long enough that you think he realizes you are a very strong player? If he sees you as just another mark, then I would switch to a call.
Just to play Devils advocate a bit here regarding preflop……
You say you don’t want to be playing a 3b pot OOP vs a capable opponent because KJo “does not play that well in a 3b pot” and “because in a 3b pot we want to be value betting and bluffing” yet advocate now for a call. My question is why is it more optimal to call with a hand that will not play that well post flop? We are OOP with no initiative vs a level 2 player and most likely bringing in a 3rd player which in my opinion is the only good thing about calling. Yes it widens our range but it also leaves us guessing throughout the entire hand.
I also disagree that KJo plays poorly in a deep stacked 3b pot with initiative vs a thinking player. We have a hand that can flop multiple draws to nuts, can def still value bet when we flop a pair ( albeit we might not get 3 streets) and have many, many boards we can triple barrel when we whiff and still have equity. I expect villain to peel with some hands we have dominated, such as QJss, 10Jss, K10ss etc… I also expect him to 4b his monsters which avoids spots like we are in now.
Anyway those are my thoughts about preflop……..As played in the hand I think we need to look at what his possible range OTR is with this polarized bet. I think he would bet AA, AK, sets, and flushes this way and all his bluffs ( which I think are few ) If He viewed hero as a fish, I would say snap call. Since he views you as thinking I say it’s a fold…… You said yourself he is unbalanced vs the bad players, in a good way and since this would not be a great board and run out to get a good player to fold a king I think you have yourself a fairly easy fold.
Thanks for posting the hand I think it has been a very good discussion thus far and value how everyone has a different view !
Greg
As played I think we should be folding river here quite often. I don’t think villain is worried too much about backdoor flushes in our range and the barrell sizing on turn feels weighted toward a lot of semi bluffs and pretty strong value hands. I don’t really know what missed on this river besides 45xx and we rep Kx such a huge amount I am not surprised to see HJ with KTx at the bottom of his range.
The only pause for thought is whether we should be raising our KJ as a bluff here, because that seems pretty ridiculous it calls to question how strong his value range is against our hand and whether we can actually exploit his range by folding. I would argue this is a good spot to lead river as our range can definitely have tons of 89x spade combo draws since we hold the Ks etc. That line only gets raised by the nuts in my opinion but gets called by a prety large vakue range that beats us so again really not a great play.
I would opt to exploitively fold here against another good player and say nice hand if he can bluff or bet thin value worse than my KJo on this runout and line.
Fold
I’ll take the villain view. I cbet the flop, and with your call I put you on Kx/showdown, the straight draw and a lesser chance of 2pr, outside chance of the mid and bottom set.
Turn changes nothing for the flop hands, but I still bet 1/2 again, so this is either a too weak 2nd barrel (against good hero) or I’ve gained equity from the backdoor. I’d make this bet if I thought you’d call without flop monsters, and you do exactly what I think.
River gets the flop draw there, monsters are dead, Kx won’t pay any bet so that’s all I could fold out. But I bet more. I think I have the flush here, but not always the nuts. With the nuts, might have bet smaller against a lag to induce, and probably over pot against looser. I’m betting the most value I think I can get from my observation of you (hard not to be biased here!). You could make it difficult if hero re-raised pot, but I’d call the less likely chance that you got the backdoor nuts there also.
I’d fold. It smells like a “I want to look like I’m trying to buy the pot, but not so much so that he’ll actually fold” type of bet. The problem is the only better I would have for a call is KT. I’m not sure I play 76 this way on the turn and river. Given that I’m near the top of my range I’m sure I could talk myself into a call, but that’s such an exploitative bet size I’m probably folding.
This is an interesting spot, its hard to say whether we can correlate his pre flop imbalance with his possible river imbalance. The fact he changed his sizing is somewhat concerning to me, and allows us to fold more often as a baseline. What concerns me is that this card overall strengthens his range quite a lot, 89 is squarely in there for up to 16 combos, and most backdoor flush draws will be bet on flop and turn.
Having the Ks in our hand makes it an interesting candidate for raising, but ultimately i think i would rather have the As in our hand when selecting to raise river as a bluff so would need to work out whether we want to balance or be exploitatively imbalanced.
in terms of our range we are going to have some fraction of each of 76,77,66, 89, Kxss KQo, KJ, KTo?
I think the spade in hand makes it a more attractive bluff catcher than say KQ but I’m torn on whether to call more than approx 60% of our range or not
In game i think i fold
I think its worth reiterating I believe this was the worse choice pre flop. Adding to what greg says above — if you three bet pre flop a lot of calls will also be with pocket pairs from the OR that will fold to pressure post flop. KJ is a decent hand with its blockers and its ability to hit pairs or draws while representing cards A-T and the hands that most dominate it four bet frequently while, e.g. KQ might fold. I think it is a reasonable choice to three bet in this particular dynamic vs OR’s weak range. Most likely the OR, being the only other very good player, will likely not be looking to spend most of his time fighting the best player at the table and will look to move on to the next hand.
You play a limited number of hands live and recreational players make enormous mistakes with deep stacks. Setting up dynamics with almost zero EV vs the best players is a waste of your most precious resource – time playing against the recreational players.
As a theory question the post flop situation is addressable. As a smart way to play live poker I find the entire situation a poor decision.
I disagree only because I think KJo is definitely strong enough to simply defend from the blinds, against a HJ raiser (and a good player). I would personally rather be 3betting suited connectors and even a few one gappers like 9Ts and a lot of suited A’s, almost all pairs down to maybe 55 as my semi-bluffs and the top of my range like KQo+. That’s a lot of hands already in my 3bet range situationally that I really don’t need weaker broadways to balance.
My reasoning is that I don’t really want dominated broadway hands in my 3betting range out of position, ever if possible. My flatting range from the sb has the weaker broadways like KJo, KT, QJo, AT etc along with pairs, and a range of suited and unsuited connectors and gappers depending on whether big blind is passive and if I think HJ is going to Cbet and barrell enough of his weak/air that I can check raise the suited connectors and gappers on the turn as semi bluffs enough to make up for playing them.
If he is more of a bet/check > showdown type player I’m going to just drop the suited connectors and gappers because I’m just never going to get villain into a line where he is letting me check raise my draws enough vs his air. For example a lot of players like to raise, cbet, then pot control turn, this forces me to donk turns with my semi-bluffs and strong made hands which works to a degree except it looks exactly what it is so in a lot of cases I do get folds, but now I’m reliant on flopping or turning a lot of equity before I can even think about making a successful bluff, hard to do.. It also means when I hit my draw on the river I have to bet small in a lot of cases to get calls, and when the river bricks and I have a set or two pair I have to also bet small, both lines I really don’t like. This is one of the underdeveloped parts of my game but out of position I just simply hate playing suited connectors and gappers unless I am pretty sure I can make profitable semi-bluffs.
I’m curious what your 3bet range looks like out of the SB and BB, and how you are reacting to 4bets. If someone is a truly good player all they have to do is 4bet you with their opening range and I’m pretty sure if you have KJo type hands in your 3betting range it isn’t going to go well. But I could be wrong.
Just curious why you would want to 3b your pairs down to 55? 3b pairs in this spot seems really really bad IMO. Your going to be forcing out the fish in a spot where your almost always going to see a flop by just calling ( fish rarely limp reraises imo) Don’t we want to see flops vs fish with pairs? I know i want to go multi way with a fish with 55 here all day everyday. I DO NOT want to have 55 in a 3b pot OOP vs a thinking player. My philosophy is i want pairs 22-1010 vs the fish multi way and i want the KJo, 10Jss type hands vs the good/better players as it leaves Hero with much better flexibility, equity, semi bluffing, etc…… pairs force us to barrel off drawing to 2 outs for value when we brick. That is a poor result IMO
Do you think flatting 55 or 77 vs a HJ open from the BB is generally profitable? I think vs openers with wide ranges flatting to hit a set is a losing play. I need the opener to be a fish before I try that. In this exact situation with a splashy rec player UTG who limped I completely agree and would flat 55 100%. I was just talking about my general 3betting range out of the blinds vs a HJ opener.
This deep even vs a “good” player I think set mining with 55 is profitable tho it’s very close IMO. I just don’t see the value in 3b hands like small pairs vs good players at a full table. Not saying I’m dead set it’s wrong, it’s just not in my 3b range. I like a polarized range 2-1 heavier on the bluff side. That’s exploitable but vs your general live lineup I just don’t feel like I’m ever getting exploited at least in the games I play.
Giving villain ~40% of hands
AA-22,AxKx-Ax2x,AxKy-Ax7y,KxQx-Kx8x,KxQy-Kx8y,QxJx-Qx8x,QxJy-Qx9y,JxTx-Jx7x,JxTy,Jx9y,Tx9x-Tx7x,Tx9y,9x8x-9x6x,9x8y,8x7x,7x6x
KsJd has ~49% equity pre flop. This points out that it will be difficult for us to play this hand profitably OOP vs a tough player even with a wide range for OR.
On the Kc 7s 6d flop we have 78% equity but, of course, the problem is when we are behind. I think its reasonable to assume OR will bet all of their range exploitably on this K high flop. It is an OK barrel board but Hero should have few K’s from OR point of view and OR knows UTG folds a lot. So most range narrowing for OR occurs on the turn of 2s.
Kc 7s 6d 2s
Villians value plus semi-bluff range at this point might look something like:
AsKs-As2s,KsQs-Ks8s,QsJs-Qs8s,JsTs-Js7s,Ts9s-Ts7s,9s8s-9s6s,7x6x,KQ,8x9x,9xTx
that has 28% equity
I have removed weak off suit K’s like KT that might check turn on the reasonably dry flop with only an additional back door flush draw but they may bet to get another street of value and protect against the Hero’s draws.
Kc 7s 6d 2s Ts
So everything but air and KT,KJ,9T beats us and I discount their turn bet frequencies they bet turn and given their SDV check river mostly. Considering air, for example, maybe some T8 suited non spade type hands are still in range. Maybe hands like 45 should be in the original range. In any case, a large bet on the river seems plausible as the OR has sets, st8s and flushes in range. I also think hands as weak as AA may take this line given the action. OR might expect different action from Hero’s stronger draws that now have become strong hands themselves. Did this kinda quickly so maybe missed something but seems like a fold unless we add a much wider range earlier and even then it should narrow similarly to little air I suppose.
sorry left Ks in villain’s range
accident
I’d call here preflop 100% of the time.
I think that Villain has nearly every combination of 98 and nut spades, along with some non-nut spades, through the flop. Whether he’d barrel all of them on the turn is a tougher question, but I think that given the stack depth and the fact that Villain should want to follow through with a healthy part of the range he bet the flop with (think _Poker’s 1%_), I think he’ll bet a lot of those.
That makes me think that this is one of those rivers where the card helps Villain significantly more than it helps you; it’s not automatically a problem if you’re folding more of your range than you would be in the half-street [0, 1] game or something.
I think Matt’s post is very good and I agree with many of his claims. If he really is a Level Two whiz, then I like Matt’s call, because he should have a lot of whiffs on the flop and has to do *something* with them, and has hit a pretty good bluffing runout (here I’m thinking of your article about figuring out what Villain will do with the “silent majority” of his range or whatever you call it). But if Villain is really good, then I think he’ll just value-bet a range that beats you and balance it with some bluffs.
When I started writing this post I was planning to argue for a fold. But now I close my eyes and call:
(i) Against a L2 player, I think you will be facing a range that is bluff-heavy in an unbalanced way.
(ii) Against a whiz who isn’t just a L2 person, I think you will be facing a range that has an appropriate number of bluffs, and you have a good hand for blocking value hands (and, I think, not blocking bluffs).
(iii) Of course, this is a multiway pot, and that can do funny things to ranges. But I just don’t see Villain not attacking this spot preflop or not betting the flop very wide. I think the dynamic here is analogous to that of a heads-up pot, and I think bluff-catching is a real concern.
Extra arguments for folding:
(1) KsJ doesn’t block any of the 16 combinations of 98.
(2) If it’s that tough for you to have a value hand, Villain can value-bet AA and AK.
I am confused. If I were holding $400 in my hand right now and had to make a decision, I’d put it in the middle and hope for the best, but I’m not sure that’s best.
Good thread.
Our hand is squarely a bluff catcher in this spot.
So, given the description of the villain, it probably doesn’t matter much what we do. Just flip a coin and don’t sweat it. 8)
In your last interview with Tommy Angelo, he said that he was experimenting with intentionally playing bluff-catching hands POOP (passively out of position) and then evaluating the river, as you do here. Nate’s arguments for folding are persuasive: 16 combos each of 89 and AK, 6 combos of AA, 6 combos of 10-10, and 3 remaining unlikely combos of KK. So the question is, how much does the preflop action weight villain’s range toward bluffs/air when he pots the river? I don’t think it’s a range against which Hero can profitably check-call.
Interesting. I have to go back and heard Tommy Angelo talk about that. Matt Janda discusses it some in his Card Runners videos. Seems legit. I know you would own me if you call my BTN open with ATo in the BB and check called me for 3 streets. I’m likely to have air there a lot and I’d probably rep the A on later streets a ton too.
I find an easy fold here.
Two things to consider:
1. What does our hand look like from the villains perspective?
2. Is he ever value betting worse?
If the villain is as decent as described he should realize that K9+ is definitely in your range and you are not calling with pocket pairs more than one street most probably. With this in mind do we think he is ever betting KJ or K9 or anything less on the river for value? I don’t think that will ever be the case. Thus we are only beating bluffs. I really don’t see the villain try to get us off a K though, for all he knows we have KT and never ever folding. Judging by the replies here were a lot of people are opting to call, villain should know that even good players dont let go of top pair that easily and don’t try to bluff that often.
I fold and don’t feel at all bad about it. If i got bluffed, big props to the guy.
The action on the turn is key. The 2s is not a particularly good barreling card, so when he bets the turn, I don’t expect him to have a lot of air. This is especially so given that he bets only half pot. I’d expect him to bet more if he had a pure bluff.
If this is correct, then he either has 1) a made hand, 2) a flopped draw, or 3) he picked up equity on the turn. If he has a naked made hand, it’s probably top pair, since I think he’s checking a lot of his smaller pairs on the turn. And if he has top pair, then the river is a fold, since most of his kings beat ours (i.e., he’ll have AKo, KQo, and maybe KTo, but not necessarily K9o or K8o).
If instead he flopped a draw or picked up the flush draw on the turn, then the river should be a fold, since most of his draws got there.
If we’re beating him on the river, it’s likely because he’s turning a hand like 88, 99, A7, or 78 into a bluff. This wouldn’t be a terrible play on his part. Our hand is fairly face up and the river is a great bluff card. I just don’t know that 1) these hands make up enough of his range, and 2) that he’s the type of player to make this play.
I like Rant’s response. In the absence f any live tells, flip a coin. Or a coin with an amount of blu-tack on one side if you want to do the maths.
The 10s appears to be a great card for a third barrel with air. It also completes a number of hands for Villian to value bet. side note – no better feeling than barreling with nothing and making your hand on the river.
Generally I find Villain has the goods when he bombs the river like this, especially if his name his Grinder Mizrachi.
Does the river sizing give a tell? Would Villain risk less on a pure bluff?
NOOB RESPONSE/END
Do you need a good turn card to barrel when villain’s range is capped and yours isn’t? A hand like KJ-KQ is probably the top of Andrew’s range in this spot as far as villain is concerned. Maybe he thinks he can get him off of it and everything else if he “empties the clip” as Gareth likes to say. Depends a lot on what he thinks of Andrew.
I know this is COMPLETELY dfiferent than the Main Event, but I saw aggressive pros do this time and time again during the WSOP footage this past summer.
Andrew tells us that “He definitely knows how to take advantage of different types of players by isolating, barreling, floating, squeezing, etc., and he’s definitely made some plays like these against me in good spots,” but he leaves out a key piece of information that could be useful here which is, did those past plays against you work?
If we are in a bluff catch scenario then we have the following:
1. Villain needs Andrew to fold 50% of the time for his bluff to be +EV
2. Andrew needs to bluff catch 30% of the time for his bluff catching to be +EV
3. This is not rocket science, I assume all of you already know this, including the villain
The problem I see here is that very decent players get trapped into the “I am being offered 2:1 and hence I need to make the call” mode and good players know this (are we really confident that a bluff like this will work half the time?). Thus, if we were the villain would we attempt to bluff someone off of a top pair decent kicker?
We could level ourselves into a call (by thinking that if the villain knows that we think he would not bluff then he can bluff) but generally I see people have AQ+ more than 2:1 in this spot.
Oops I meant KQ+
as a sidenote, pretty sure viffer popularized the phrase “empties the clip”.
Lastly, I see a lot of people mentioning that his river bet polarizes his range. I beg to differ. This would be a polarizing bet coming from a reg, but good players have the thin-value bets in their arsenal. If I were the villain I would have played this hand exactly like that with KJ, KQ, AK. AA and maybe KT (flop and turn that is, river for sure). With this in mind I would have rather called a reg then a good player in this spot (probably not called either, but if I was forced to pick) since regs dont have thin-value bets in their arsenal whereas good players do. We do see how regs are happy to check river with KQ, AK, AA in this spot because they are scared of losing their stack or being bluffed from a c/r.
another key thing for me is the bet sizing doesn’t seem optimal as a bluff as we have enough hands in our range (especially on a K high dry board where we check call 2 streets) that I think are pretty face up as far as calling that I kind of expect “bombing” river to be like 1.5x pot here. This bet size just seems like a thick value bet vs a face up Kx calling range.
If we think of bomb bets as 4/5+ pot then this is definitely a bomb, especially because it came on the river (no more cards to come). I posit that if this is indeed a value bet, then it is not just representive of a nutted range (sets+) but coming from a good player this is KQ+. Agreed with you that our calling range is very defined to be Kx, so KQ+ is making the same bet as AsXs here given that the target is our calling range.
I think villain has better than KQ anytime he thinks to value bet this river so big. I would expect a bet of around $260 for thin value and it is consistant with his line repping TP. Can’t wait for results my guess is 89xx here, we’ll see!
Sorry to keep hammering on this but I don’t think the bet size really matters here to assess villains exact value range (ie if he is nutted or thinning). If villain is as good as described and knows he is ahead, he should also assign a range for us and bet accordingly. Thus it does not matter how much stronger than ours his hand is, but only whether or not he is ahead or not and if so, how much value can he extract from us.
True that if he had KQ or the like, he would value own himself a small percentage of the time when we have KT but other than that KQ is the same as the nut flush in this spot IMO.
Except that you generally want your river sizing to be a ratio of bluffs to value hands, sizing in this case is large so I would normally expect his range to have quite a few bluffs, only it doesn’t. So he is repping a wide value range that beats us, a super thin value range we beat, and his air hands are all literally air.
Only one of these can be true:
he is a good player and is taking a very thin leveling line (which qualifies him as either a great or bad player consequently)
his betting is out of line with his value range
I just don’t see 1/2 pot 1/2 pot 4/5 pot on that runout as “good” with either bluffs or value. Appreciate the back and forth on this!
“Except that you generally want your river sizing to be a ratio of bluffs to value hands” I don’t think this is necessarily true. If I were villain in this particular run out and action I am ok with not having bluffs ever. I can let my thin value bets act like bluffs that villains will call me with with inferior hands. We are called so often in this spot even by good players that I don’t think having bluffs is warranted. Again I say this because if we were villain we know that hero has a decent K extremely often.
“So he is repping a wide value range that beats us, a super thin value range we beat, and his air hands are all literally air.”
Probably a minor point but I don’t think there is any value range we ever beat here. I don’t see villain betting K8, QQ, etc for value ever in this spot.
“I just don’t see 1/2 pot 1/2 pot 4/5 pot on that runout as “good” with either bluffs or value.”
I dont know what exactly you mean by “good” other than villain’s skill level but agreed that I don’t see what kind of air would have played like this.
Bottom line, my reasoning so far is Level 3, i am answering this question:
What does he think I have?
My answer is that he thinks I have a top pair hand and he is trying to maximize his river bet that can be called.
If villain outleveled me by 1 (level 4) good on him. From my personal experience whenever I try to go level 5 I get screwed so I am content to stop at 3 🙂