Q: My question is about a hand from a sunday 109rb tournament. I am already in the money and find 44 on my big Blind (with a 24bb stack). Villain opens in middle position for 2.28 bb with a 38bb stack (I only have 30 hands of the player (vpip17/pfr13)) and I decided to push on him as I think that he might be opening relatively wide with his stack (any two broadway cards, any pair and some suited connectors/one gappers) and I consider to have a good fold equity. In regard in this particular hand I probably should have just called from the Big Blind as I am getting the right odds to set mine and let the hand go if I do not hit my set?
But my question is more generally as I seem to have problems with these little pairs when my stack is between 20-25bb. When I am between 15-19bb I like to put these hands into my 3bet allin range of hands. But with 20-25bb that might be to much and I might be to far behind against the range of hands with which my opponent calls me? Could you give me any advice on this problem?
A: I’ll do my best to add to your analysis, but I think you’ve already identified why these are tricky spots and what might be the better play. The thing I’ll say off the top, which you hinted at yourself, is that just because shoving is profitable doesn’t mean it’s the best play. You’re getting great odds on a call, which means that calling will be significantly +EV. If you have doubts about whether shoving is profitable at all, then it’s better to make the obviously +EV call.
A couple of other things to consider. First, small pairs perform best against wide calling ranges. You need to get a lot of coinflips against overcards to make up for the times you are dominated by bigger sets. So even if a HJ opener and a button opener would each call your shove with the same frequency, you’re much better off against the button opener because he will have a wider opening range and thus a wider calling range (or, if they have similar calling ranges, then he’ll fold more frequently, which is probably even better for you).
Second, there’s some chance there’s a sizing tell here. It would be nice to know whether Villain was consistently opening for 16K. It seems to me he may have chosen that size specifically to induce a shove from you, as he easily could have opened to 14K and made it much less likely that you would jam.
I think there are two reasons why many tournament players shy away from calling in these spots:
1. You lose the pot more often. You lose less, of course, than when your shove is called, but you do lose more frequently.
2. You have to make some tough decisions on later streets.
(2) isn’t necessarily a bad thing, because each decision is an opportunity to outplay your opponent, but it does require some comfort in playing postflop. I think that improving your postflop skills and better understanding how to play this bluffcatching/clawing back equity game that you’ll end up playing when you call out of the BB, is about the best way you can improve your results in this and similar circumstances.
I think if you are going to flat small pairs out of the BB it is highly speculative especially in a tournament to be purely set mining. I’m not comfortable with small pairs as purely set mining hands without identifying some boards where I want to lead or even check raise with them as your line is just going to end up being: call>fold when you miss or when you hit: call>check vcheck> bet turn vfold or call>check vbet > raise or call > villain shuts down on turn…. because with a wide range villain isn’t going to have a hand he wants to stack off 35BB with often enough when you actually do hit the magic set.
As an example (I’m not advocating this line but it is an option):
I would consider 3betting 44 preflop fairly small like 5.5bb and cbetting good boards against fit or fold opponents, and probably leading and barrelling some single broadway boards. V has enough BB I don’t see him getting out of line against you without the goods but regardless you have to find some ways to bluff with the 44 postflop profitably.
Just some things to think about when you want to defend your BB with 44 or even a hand like T8cc. As Andrew said you have to work on your postflop game to make these calls worthwhile, just trying to flop a set isn’t going to be enough and I would probably just fold 44 as nitty as that sounds if my only game plan is hitting a set.
I usually hit my sets, so this confuses me.
Couple thoughts:
(1) The size of and/or presence of antes is an important factor.
No antes and the depth you mentioned = something like 300/600 with a stack of 14400 facing an open of 1350. Jamming with 44’s in that spot is going to be really spazzy and -EV, even before considering any ICM/prize factors, which will make the jam worse.
300/600, 100 antes (9-handed) facing an open of 1350 with a stack of 14,400 is a totally different situation (you have 7.5 orbits vs 15 left). folding pre now goes from bad to HORRIBLE. and jamming goes from horrible to questionable. so consider your antes and think in terms of M/orbits > BB’s if you want increased precision.
(2) consider the presence of problematic rejam stacks behind the opener. opener may not be savvy enough to consider this, but theoretically he should be opening tighter if there are stacks behind him which could give him tough decisions when they jam. (e.g. does he really want to be opening T9s or A5 or 22 to 1350 if there are a few stacks of 5-8k behind him left to act?) so if he’s opening with a few problematic rejam stacks behind him you can range him somewhat tighter (making a jam with 44’s worse, increasing your implied odds if you hit a set, yada yada).
For 2) I agree and think jamming 44 should be more of a 12bb and under tactic against late openers with shorter stacks than villain. Considering we are in the money at this point however I don’t think villain with 38bb needs to be 2.2x opening tight (I wouldn’t be)
Putting 1.28 bb into a pot that’s already got 3.78 bb in it is going to awfully hard to beat!