This is from a $5/$10/$20 NLHE game. Villain has some natural disbelieving/trying to win every pot tendencies that have been exaggerated by positive tilt. He’s got about $10K in front of him (max buy-in is $2500 because this is technically a $5/$10 game, we’re just playing with a mandatory straddle). His hand reading is OK in the sense that he recognizes spots where people are repping narrow ranges, but then he does really unbalanced stuff to combat that, like raise when he himself isn’t repping anything or calling down really light. More fundamentally, he simply plays too many hands pre-flop and is insufficiently sensitive to position.
One example, he bet-called 99 vs a huge check-shove on Qh Th 5d and won vs Ah Kh. Exploitively, it may be a correct call because that player probably does have a draw there all the time, but winning in spots like that has definitely emboldened him.
His strategy probably OK against the weaker regs, but I’ve been punishing him for it. That’s not to say I’ve never backed down when he floated or raised me in spots where I suspected he was unbalanced, but but we’ve tangled a fair bit in spots where we both had wide ranges and the money has on balance flown to me.
Hero is in the straddle with about $4800. Action folds to Villain in SB, who opens for $60. BB folds, Hero makes it $160 with Js Ts, Villain calls.
Flop ($323 in pot) Qs 9s 6d. Villain checks, Hero bets $200, Villain raises to $500, Hero?
Please comment below with your thoughts and preferred action. If you want to do anything other than shove, you should also consider your plan should you see the following turn cards:
1) 3s
2) 3h
3) Td
I’ll respond to comments throughout the week and post my own thoughts as well as results on Friday.
I’d shove. We’re getting it in as a modest dog (~40-60) against the very top of villain’s range (JJ, 99, 66, As6s, AsKs), which I expect villain to rarely have in light of the number of combos involved and his wide range – particularly since the Qs and 9s on the board mean most of his combo draws are blocked (I’d be much more concerned with a Qx9s6s board). We getting it in as a slight favorite (~55-45) against the top of villains range (i.e., Qx) and a solid favorite (~65-35) against the bottom of villain’s continuing range (TT, T9, 88, 98, 8s7s, 7s6s, etc.), with which it seems like villain will continue, based upon the 99 hand. Overall, I would expect to get it in with around 55-57% equity vs. villain’s continuing range, which is a pretty good spot.
Of course, we have position, so Andrew might be able to outplay villain by calling (getting 3.4:1 odds) and making an even better decision on the turn. However, the equity in our hand drops dramatically on a 3h, drops to around 50% against villain’s range on Td and of course goes way up on a 3s, but how much are we really going to get paid when the flush comes in? If another 200bb (treating this as 10/20) goes in on a spade (which is otherwise a great card), the weighting of villain’s range is going to shift.
Oops. Meant QQ rather than JJ when talking about the very top of villain’s range. And villain probably 4bets QQ against an aggressive 3-bettor like Andrew.
Villian has shown a propensity to get it in with marginal hands against a textured board. He would most likely if he has a draw he likes (solid or otherwise), solid made hand (QQ, 99, 66, or Q9 if it somehow shoes up here) or even a marginal one (AQ, A9) get it in. The question for me is do I want to tangle with JT monster draw here for stacks or pot control. I don’t believe he would fold to a shove in this dynamic. So flip for it? Not my cup of tea when I have worked a stack up to two buyins. A Check raise here is meddlesome but not terrible. If he continues on the turn it looks to be about 1000-1300 range which will allow us to shove scary rivers (most of which hit us).
I call and “make a better decision on the turn” especially as pot size sets up nicely balanced river shove if need be.
3h ~~ All options are on the table here. Hopefully at worse have to call a pot sized bet as our equity goes down. I still can’t get away for a pot sized bet on the turn because i am not a good player and would want to punish him if I could(read maybe break even in this game). If he checks, I am not sure what I would do, mot likely continue with a 1/3rd pot bet and really not want a raise, if you get the feeling he really wants to win every hand and will put us to a decision checking behind is gross, but may work out. However if that 1/3rd to half pot bet will successfully narrow his range it may be valuable enough as it is.
3s ~~ If he is not potting it here I am probably in for about the 800-1000 range. and feeling sick if he check raises.(and calling barring any live tells cause hey I at least have two out to the nuts)
10d Betting pot myself making him pay for a river or if he bets, shoving, with as much acting or lack of acting that is needed.
My first instinct is to 3bet to something like 1400. If he rips, that’s ok; we’re at least 45% vs a range of 2p/sets/nfd. If he ever pulls the trigger with other jt or a worse fd or some tilty go-for-it trash, we’re a slight equity favorite. Also, raising keeps our range uncapped; I think he’d expect us to fastplay our sets here, so if he flats he’s going to have a disgusting decision with his flatting range (unless he includes some big hands in it oop on a wet board) on turn cards that don’t complete our draws. That is, unless he flats and open jams the turn himself =\.
After 3 betting and getting a call, i’m gonna rip the 3h and the td if checked to, content that i have enough sets in my range to make up for the times he calls with top pair and we don’t win. Prob also going to rip the cards that make our draw, maybe checking back some board pairs and our straight flush cards.
I think this is a pretty clear call.
We have position, we dominate a lot of draws. The better flush draws are not folding if we shove, imo, given villain description. So the only draws we can fold that beat us now are like KJ, KT. But we have massive equity versus those hands as well and dont encounter many bad situations against them.
What I dont want to do is fold out 78 type hands or T8 or backdoor diamonds or AJ stuff, stuff that is going to have problems against our range and hand.
We have so many luxuries in this hand. We have position and enough equity to shove any turn card. I think we should use those. I could be talked into doing either shove or call, dependent on sizing, on any of the turn cards listed. I like calling a card that makes us a pair especially. I think calling a king or an 8 especially as well, which becomes exploitive if I want to shove a 3h blank. But hey, whats villain going to do about it?
i think gareth nailed it
Call flop.
Call all turn bets. Bet all turn checks (for about 600-800). If check-raised on turn, simply use pot odds to determine validity of a call.
Fold or check back all rivers that don’t make our draw. Bet all rivers if you made your draw by the end.
I know the history of the player in the description says that he called off with a weak hand against a very big draw. If you are flipping against his range, you are still +EV. But here you have him OOP and he’s likely to keep betting at this pot against you with his entire range since he’s described as wanting to win every pot. So you’ll be able to save that last bet when you don’t make your hand, and still get paid when you do. Assuming the river bet ends up being in the 2k range. That’s 2k saved 50% of the time, which is $1k!
That seems to be more profitable than a flop shove.
“you’ll be able to save that last bet when you don’t make your hand, and still get paid when you do.”
Sounds good to me, but I think you should make more of an argument for why you expect to get paid if you call twice and the river is a spade. I don’t necessarily disagree, just don’t think you’ve made the case here or that it’s obvious/trivial.
It’s based on my assumptions from your descriptions. I am just running with the belief that Villian will try to represent the nuts on every possible runout. If Villain gives up betting initiative on this pot at any time, he’s likely to call with any holding that can beat a bluff and muck his weakest hands.
I definitely wouldn’t play this hand this passively against certain opponents, but that’s because I’d believe that I’d have good fold equity on the turn, which does not seem to come in play here.
That makes sense, thanks for clarifying.
I think I’d first need a little more info on “More fundamentally, he simply plays too many hands pre-flop and is insufficiently sensitive to position.” Depending on whether he is playing a lot of hands via calling or a lot of hands via raising might mean different things in regard to this particular hand (raising in the SB). I’ll just assume he’s doing a mix indicating this is typical play for him indicating a wide range. With that being the case I think it’s a pretty clear shove. He’s likely going to call enough with the bottom of his range to make up for the times we’re behind. Also, given the way he’s played, I’m not sure what’s to be gained by not shoving.
Posting before reading other comments then will post again. My first instinct is to shove which I will feel comfortable about if bankroll is not an issue – i.e. – with plenty of buy ins at this level, I’ll take my large amount of pot equity / fold equity and get it in.
(As a 1-2 live player, this isn’t the case, and the $4800 would be scared money, and cause me to play more cautiously here, but that’s an aside).
But let’s see if there are better options. With game history, villain’s range feels weighted toward hands like MPTK and TPGK (your stab on the flop could seem like air to him) but I can also see some sets, JJ, TT, and less likely two-pairs (Q9s) in his range also. Less pleasantly, I can see some better spade draws in his range, AsXs, As6s, plus 78o, 7s8s, and backdoor draws with a pair hands (although you block a few straight draw combos) and so on – but on balance, these hands may feel very uncomfortable facing a huge 3 bet on the flop.
What does your range look like when you raise large or shove? I think he will correctly sense a big draw – remember the AKs shove you mentioned – plus he will think about sets also, and perhaps AQ – with or without the As. I don’t think his range can reasonably continue when you shove – but this is a bad LAG on positive tilt so you never know.
Calling and seeing what the turn brings seems a reasonable more cautious approach. 3s I’m playing for stacks against his range; 3h I will continue to control the pot, and Td might be good for SDV or a decent card to bluff with, but I’m looking for physical and bet sizing tells.
Thanks, Piers. What makes you think you’ll be able to control the pot on a brick turn, though? I think you can expect a big bet very often after Villain check-raises flop.
That’s a very fair point Andrew – I guess I meant more in terms of either checking back in the unlikely event villain thinks he smells a rat and doesn’t bet. But even in that case, a semi-bluff bet from hero could be the wiser play. So given it’s likely he will bet turn following our call of his check-raise, I meant pot controlling in the sense of calling rather than raising. Ofc, as you point out, pot’s getting pretty large by now, so whether a turn call can even be seen as pot-control is dubious! Thanks for pointing that out.
I made sure not to read the responses before I wrote this, although the top one (“shove!”) did catch my eye.
Ah, the beauty of position! Shoving seems fine, but not that awesome. We are ahead, he can call off lighter than us, but for those same reasons, we would love to see a turn card, which would allow us to play even better. We are gonna make money with our hand, the question is how much.
I call, knowing we can blow up the pot later, or dance away on a particularly bad runout. Jamming now realizes our equity, but doesn’t let Hero put their superior skills to use in extracting max value. We retain the ability to win the pot in multiple ways and indeed are exactly where we want to be in a 240 BB pot.
3s I’m getting it in to realize equity.
3h. Getting it in, because I think we are still ahead, but want to fold out A-high and a few pairs.
10d. Check back or call because we can win at SD sometimes.
His hand – he may be playing too many hands and trying to win every pot, and he may think of the straddle and BB as dead money. He would be really wide here. If he thinks you may be playing back at him wide he would probably 4b AA, KK, AK, AQ, QQ, and sometimes 99 preflop. He doesn’t have a lot of strong made hands on this flop, but still plenty of draws and weakish to weak Qx and 9x.
My play – I would shove. I would also shove KsJs, AsJs, and AsKs, along with 2P+. The only exception is top set, since he wouldn’t have too many Qx hands to snap off but he still has plenty of bluffing hands that he could shove with. The reason is against this type of opponent, especially if they are on positive tilt, I expect a snap call from things like pair plus back door, or like his previous hands 3rd pair. I expect them to read me for a draw close to 100% of the time, so sometimes I have that draw and prefer a fold but don’t mind a call, and I have a monster and pray for a call. Not the most balanced, and I’m sure there’s better ways to play your range, but that’s how I do it. And if he had nothing we wouldn’t get anything more out of him anyway.
I 3 bet to 1300 and am calling shoves of course. I want to play aggressively to knock out/apply pressure to his wide range with my hand that has great equity, but no showdown value.
If he calls, I’m betting $1500 on most turns (maybe everything but a second queen). That leaves $1840 back so I’ve got an easy enough call off if he check-jams (needing <20% equity for break even). It's also the same sizing I'd use with my sets and should exert a lot of pressure on his one pair hands if he still has them. If he calls again I'm checking back the river when I miss on most every board, as I figure his turn call means he's generally going with it. Although I could see firing again if the turn came so that I thought a lot of his range were combo draws with less than top pair.
b/3b shoveling 4.5K into 1.2K pot against a callbox seems terrible– particularly with position. accordingly, flatting the check-raise.
turn actions:
on Q96ss 3s: if check to, betting $425 into 1.3K aimed at hero calls from Qx, 9x, Asx hands, and stubborn mid pp or Asx hands. leaning toward a fold if check-raised again depending on size. otherwise, firing 1.5K on blank river into ~ 2.1K pot for value.
on Q96ss 3h: if check to, checking behind, and checking/folding river if it bricks out. villain is never check-folding turn or river with any showdown value he check raised flop with. otherwise, calling most turn bets, and expecting flush/straights to be good if binked on river in which case the plan is overbetting the pot (at least 1.5xPSB for value). will also consider raising for thin value if villain bets a third time depending on barrel size and remaining stack sizes.
on Q96ss Td: pretty much same analysis as above, but with added outs for trips and 2P although 2P brings a four straight. would not feel great about hero calling a third barrel with just mid pair/busted draws, as villains of these sorts tend to thin hero calling rather than triple barreling with air (particularly in a 3b pot where hero has called a check raise and a second barrel).
I’ll post a reply later, but my initial thoughts are this check raise line is very different than his previous bet calling a shove. The 3s is actually a card that I’m pretty unhappy about if turn goes bet raise (villain) shoves as his flop line smells like some nutted flush draws and sets.
I’m going to assume from the check raise small line and his previous call off with middle pair on a draw heavy board that I have very little fold equity in this spot. Because I can’t make him fold, shoving here is really just a matter of whether I feel ok with drawing to 15 outs or as little as 8 outs or worse including redraws.
He’s a bad lag, we have position, I guess you can just ship here and realize all your equity and it is likely profitable, depends on how you like variance and whether you are comfortable outplaying the opponent. The problem with flatting is it will be tough to get paid on the turn or river unless we hit 6 magical outs, the non flush straight outs. I think vs. his player type who just doesn’t believe it we have very good implied odds with those outs. Because almost half our outs have good implied odds, half have bad implied odds, and turn bricks in position should be fairly easy to pot control I think my flop plan is to flat in position with the intention of:
1) ripping an offsuit K or 8 regardless of his turn action – great implied odds here
2) flatting any decent sized turn barrell on bricks – pot or less is still giving us odds
3) checking behind turn if it bricks and he checks to us – again no fold equity, free card is only going to help us
4) folding to brick turns if he open shoves – exploitable fold, I’m ok with this because his range for open shoving bricks is so heavily weighted towards sets
5) betting about 3/4 pot if we make our flush, with this board texture he can have some pair + flush draws on a turn spade I want max value from.
I am retaining the same lines regardless of the 3 turn options. Even a pair plus combo draw doesn’t change my turn line because it isn’t improving me vs his check raising flop range.
I think I’d get it in. I don’t mind him calling me with one pair like he did with the 99. He doesn’t seem like the type who would stop betting on the turn, so I’d rather put the money in against him now while I still have a ton of equity.