Episode 105: Coaching Carlos

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The second batch of Thinking Poker Premium Podcasts is now available, and tonight you’re getting the first episode FREE. Fresh off of a $1-$2 no-limit game, Andrew and Nate help Carlos Welch take his first steps from tourney donk to cash game crusher. The entire Coaching Carlos series is available for just $19 at www.nitcast.com.

35 thoughts on “Episode 105: Coaching Carlos”

  1. Time for a seriously n00bish question from the non-Apple-but-use-iTunes-for-podcasts crowd.

    So I get an extremely generous deal from nitcast.com on the latest strategy episode. I then access the episodes and store them on my computer.

    If I then want to listen to them in iTunes is this a simple conversation so it will show up as a podcast / song in my library?

    • Follow up noob question:

      I purchased the coaching carlos series from nitcast.com. It is my first purchase. I’m not entirely sure how to access it now? I can’t find it anywhere on website. I assume there is a downlaod link somehwere that I’m overlooking. I just can’t seem to find it.

      Can anyone help?

    • Is that why you haven’t been to the game lately? It got canceled again tonight for lack of interest. Ok, I promise no more bluffs from me.

      • You know I love you.
        I hate that I’ve missed the game. Too many conflicts during holiday season.

        I’m looking forward to reading your soul after I listen to the latest premium podcasts.

        • So piefarmer doesn’t show up and the game doesn’t get going…. Hmmm, I have a theory on what name and face popped in your head when Andrew asked “think of the game’s biggest donator”.

          • JD,
            I’ve raised this concern myself, but Carlos and others insist I’m a big boss and should keep coming back.
            TBH, I’ve tracked my stats and I’m exactly break even after a year. Which, in this game, means I’m not very good.
            Carlos owns me. I should just pay his rent and sit on the sidelines and watch him.

            • “I’m not very good” + “Carlos owns me” = “Carlos and others insist I’m a big boss and should keep coming back.”

              Not true, but oh man did you ever set yourself up for that one.

              I have my sights set on about 3 to 4 people per night in that game and you are never one of them. Just collateral damage sometimes.

              This is a game where you can have a good night playing only 2 or 3 big hands. The key is to not spend the rest of the time giving it back. I try to treat my chip stack like a Roach Motel. “Chips check in, but they don’t check out.”

  3. What came first the MTT or the Cash Game. I played cash first in Gardena, Cali in the first years of pokerdom. It was 7 card stud or draw poker. 1/2 limit. I was so terrible I havent been back. Then came Chris Moneymaker and the MTT and I was hooked. I tried to put cash game behind me until FT and PS used to do promotional things to triple up on points when playing cash. Then I played PLO cheap to get all those extra points.
    Im so scared to sit at a cash table because of the bad memories. I hope these will encourage me to step up to it. Those PLO cash games look so juicy.
    Maybe you can do a PLO one with me? Prepare me for WSOP next year?
    Hey is there some way I can download these to my phone?

    • Keone,
      I’m guessing if you completed the purchase on your phone, they would download to that device. I’d recommend completing it on a computer or tablet, then transferring the files to your phone. Can be as simple as emailing them as an attachment to yourself, then saving it on the phone. Lots depends on your phone type and storage capacity.

    • Keone – I had a similar experience when I first played cash pre-Moneymaker. On a visit to Mohegan Sun in Jan. 2000 (the old room, before they shut it down for a few years) I sat down at a 5 card limit stud table having no clue what I was doing. I remember a Russian guy openly laughing at me after I had lost all my money (I think I only bought in for @ $50). I didn’t play again until the Moneymaker boom. All MTT’s and sit and go’s at first but my local home game did mix in cash so I got comfortable playing that, although since it was usually shallow games I think I treated it the same as tournaments and it took me a while to realize the different objectives of the games. I especially liked the discussion of the difference between cash and tournaments in this podcast.

  4. It was funny listening to this again. I have grown a good bit since then. I would love to heard from some other noobs (im looking at you, piefarmer) on if they’ve experienced some of the same type of players at 1/2 or 2/5 games.

    I’ve found a few more spots to bluff, but I use the same basic strategy. The thing I need to work harder to implement is the guys’ point that I need to add Doyle’s trouble hands to my game. KTo is the nuts when the dude on your right loves K4 and calls it a “fourking good” hand. I gotta start making these broadway hands my bread and butter while being sure to tread lightly post.

    • I’m pretty sure that from now on I’ll be thinking “fourking good hand” every time I see those combinations haha… oh man. That’s great.

      Also, if the flop comes A23 then he has a really well disguised straight!

  6. Carlos – I’ve definitely seen the types of players described in 1/2 games. It seems like once they’ve made up their mind to play a hand they call (or limp-call) almost any size (w/in reason) w/o regard to the bet size and stack sizes.

    • It will cost me about $.50 per book, so do whatever is most convenient for you. Thanks for checking though (and for buying!)

  8. ive listened to every podcast, and up to this point, bought all that was available.
    but the last podcast, a free one to lure me in…did not.
    nate and andrew–although a 3some can be fun, the novelty that is carlos wore off for me a long time ago.
    how about i send in the $19 and you send me a thinkingpoker t-shirt?
    happy new years and best to all

    bones

    • Bones–

      Sounds like giving away the first episode had the right effect–we both want to sell to people who like it and not sell to people who don’t. The T-shirt offer is very nice, but for now just keep your money; I strongly suspect there will be more Thinking Poker stuff to spend it on eventually.

      Also: it’s cool that you’ve listened to all the shows! Thanks for the loyal listenership, and I’m happy you are (or at least seem to be!) a satisfied customer of the other stuff.

      Happy holidays!

      • The thing about Carlos is he is unique. What you expect is not what you get. We never must make assumptions about people or underestimate them. So it is with Poker In fact AB is similar in that way. I think Carlos always comes from a different slant from the norm. I think that is because he is true to whatever he is into. Whether it be poker, hip hop, or family. He seriously approaches the subject. There just is no jive. He knows who he is and doesnt pretend to be anything else. You either appreciate him or you dont but he is genuine.
        I hope that they both consider me as I consider them. Compadres.

    • I mean, if this was the first Carlos that interviewed originally then id be inclined to agree, but he has come a long way since then. I’m only half way though the series but am very happy with it.

  9. can’t believe you’re telling Carlos he needs 77 or better from the blinds to call Andrew’s raise. imo if you’re gonna let go of pocket sixes to a single raised pot (regardless of villain) then it’s silly to sit down. Andrew said he knows Carlos has a strong range with the call and he is never going to put $ in the pot with his air…doesn’t this make stealing pots easier? obviously AB is going to adjust if Carlos floats a K85 flop with 22 and steals it with river bet and you don’t want to make a habit of playing the best player out of position but i think AB’s assertion that Carlos is never getting paid with a set and never taking the pot away from him without a set is a bit dubious.

    • FWIW, if memory serves, folding small pocket pairs from the BB was an early piece of very controversial advice from Cole South when he started making videos.

      I’m not saying this is the bit of poker advice I’m most confident in, but I am very confident that people underestimate how much of the value of calling with pocket pairs comes not just from making sets but from opponents making huge mistakes when you have sets.

      Full disclosure: I don’t fold pocket pairs to single raises often (but I do sometimes).

      • Carlos is in the small blind here, which is a very important difference. I would be much more reluctant to fold in the BB, but I think that cold calling out of the SB at all is dicey, especially in more aggressive games (which, admittedly, this was not). Mike, you’re right that Carlos will get paid with a set more than never and also that he will sometimes show down a winner unimproved. I just don’t think those things will happen often enough. I’m not going to bluff never, but I’m not going to bluff too much either. In fact I’m going to try to bluff roughly enough to make it hard for Carlos to show down dicey marginal hands like unimproved pocket pairs. I’m not going to bluff so much that he can print money by just check-calling all the way with a set, nor am I going to automatically lose my stack because I flop a pair when he flops a set. To play a pure set mining strategy profitably, he has to average a return of $90 (10x what it costs him to see the flop) when he hits a set. That is definitely not going to happen. The fact that he may realize a bit of his equity unimproved helps to offset that, but honestly I don’t think he wins the pot that often when he whiffs.

  10. yeah, maybe i jumped on this one a little quickly. i think I’m expressing some of my own frustrations at playing deep stacked OOP against solid pros. i was playing a five ten game on Monday that was very tough with aggressive pros behind me and it got to the point that pocket tens UTG felt only marginally better than Q2 off as I knew that I was almost always gonna be in a position where my pair faced a ton of pressure and I might have to call two big bets post flop to hold on. although it certainly feels dirty to not even see a flop with a pair and i personally am only going to tighten my range so far to avoid the top dog at the table

    • This isn’t just about avoiding the big dog, I don’t think calling a 5BB raise with 22 in the SB is a good idea against anyone, at least not without very deep stacks and an opponent who badly overvalues top pair. TT UTG is a different story, you aren’t set mining there, you’re raising for (slightly thin) value, and the fact that you could also have bigger pairs makes it hard for your opponent to put too much pressure on you. I do agree, though, that raising TT UTG in a tough game is not that much more +EV than folding them, so in that sense you’re right that it isn’t that much better than Q2. It is, however, better enough to be playable.

  11. I’m just listening to the episode (good episode)

    When Carlos called a preflop raise with 45s, then raise/folded a 678 rainbow flop:

    1 – I think 45s is a losing hand and it should be folded preflop. The only time I play it is when button stealing or defending vs the SB in a blind battle. I have to think it’s an unprofitable hand for 99+% of the poker population.

    2 – I don’t like the fold. The cold 3 bettor wasn’t well described other than tight. I think the range you gave him was too tight. Regarding villian’s range, I think 45s is less likely to be part of his range (maybe give him 1 out of 3 of the remaining combos). Also, could he be cold 3-betting the flop with a pair or top pair and a straight draw? This is a $1/$3 game and people do weird things. You also have to consider that he’s probably more likely to be reraising his sets than 9ts.

  12. Just bought the 4 episodes via Nitcast as a Xmas gift to myself, it’s wonderful stuff so far (only listened to ep 1).

    I don’t entirely disagree with Eric on folding 45s in that 678 spot. But that’s what made it such an interesting hand to analyse. The fact that Carlos’ hand cannot improve and that sets and two-pairs can, plus the real possibilities of T9o, makes the fold far from terrible though imho, however it is a little nitty 😉

    It brought to mind a spookily similar hand from a few weeks ago at a live 1/2 table in Sydney. I was playing 6h8h in a limped pot from the CO. 4 way to a flop which read 678 with 2 clubs, effective stacks about $150. Middle position leads out for $11, one fold, I raise to $38 in the CO, and short stack button goes all in for I think around $70. My memory is a bit sketchy but I think MP flats and so do I, which I’m not sure was the best play on my part.

    Turn is a beautiful 6, it goes check, check. River a K. MP checks and I figure he must be near the top of his range on this particular board (i.e. flop) so I shove and he calls. At showdown, both opponents had flopped straights – the button with 45s and MP with 95s.

    Right, I’m off to listen to episode 2!

  13. Thanks again everyone. Merry Christmas to the whole Thinking Poker family. I am writing this thoughtful post here in lieu of sending you all expensive gifts. #nitcast

  14. I think the episodes should be free but for Carlos series i would pay because he will be one of the greats He speaks from the heart and slow which is great tool for beginners

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