I’ve obviously been running this over in my head a lot, so I might as well post it here. It’s the last hand before break, blinds are 250/500/25. I have a little shy of 20K, Villain has 30 or 35K. He seems to be the only other pro at the table and has been pretty aggressive pre-flop since most people aren’t fighting back that much. He’s opened a lot of pots and got into one re-raising war where he won without showdown after 5-betting half his stack and c-betting the flop. He and I haven’t tangled yet, and I haven’t played many hands, but I did 3-bet out of both the BB and SB last orbit and take it both times. There was also a hand where I called an early position raise out of my big blind and bet out at a Ts 7d 5s flop to take it down – that will be relevant in a moment.
Action folds to Villain on the Button, where he opens for his usual 1100. The player in the BB is a pretty soft spot, and between that and the fact that it’s the last hand before break I think Villain may well be opening any two cards. I have Jc 9c in the SB, and already I think I have a few options. Folding can’t be too bad, but I do think it’s a little bad considering how wide I expect him to be. I didn’t want to get into a pre-flop war, so I called. With my hand, I really don’t mind BB coming along, which he does.
Flop (3750 in the pot) Tc 5d 2c. I bet 1800, BB folds, Villain raises to 4500, I shove for about 18500 total, Villain calls with T5o and busts me.
On the one hand, I feel validated about his opening range being any two, and of course part of me wishes I had 3-bet. With his range being that wide, I think I’m right to want to commit on this flop. With a somewhat shorter stack, I’d just check-shove the flop (or shove pre), but my stack is awkward for that so I thought I’d do better inducing a light call or raise this way. So far so good.
It wouldn’t have changed the outcome here, but I think it’s possible that calling and check-shoving the turn or bluffing rivers if he checks behind turn could be better than shoving the flop, because his raising range is probably pretty polarized. He doesn’t seem like the sort to raise-fold 88 or something here, so I think my Jack isn’t live too often if he calls the shove. It may be better to give him more rope with the air part of his range rather than shove. Also if he expects me to shove clubs on the flop then he may try to represent them or pay me off if they come in.
Like I said, wouldn’t have changed the outcome here, but I think it was an interesting hand and I look forward to talking to Nate about it on the next podcast. Of course I mostly hope we won’t have time to record a show this week because he’s still in it!
I think an argument could be made for folding preflop but I would not be one to make it, because in practice I call here given the BB’s description. I don’t like three-betting this hand on these stacks out of position. His calling range is going to play so well against you, I think and that’s a big concern for me.
I prefer to check-call the flop. I see a lot of great turn opportunities, particularly on a blank A, K, and Q. On a king we get a gutshot that will be clean versus his bet/call range and on a king we have an open ender (though him bet/calling KJ seems plausible). An ace we will assume his bet/fold frequency is pretty high that when offset with the equity we have against his calling range, will do us well enough. He can also let us realize our equity with the showdown portion of his range on cards such as this.
Of course we could hit a jack or a nine, which would make check-calling the turn an adventure in acceptable comfort. Then a club we enter a value situation and the world is our oyster.
I know you are the best player at this table. But were I playing at this table I would likely consider villain as good if not better than me, until proven otherwise. This would invoke the rule of playing fewer and smaller pots against better players, just as you would tighten your range for any number of reasons, a player’s skill level is another function onto which this overlays. Even when you are better than everyone at the table, this guy seems considerably better than everyone else, you not included. Therefore, my general plan would be to not put a lot of money in against him, and not play pots against him generally.
That would not make me fold J9cc in the small blind with a weak BB, versus 1100. I am not personally close to thinking it is a fold preflop, but these days, I defend an exorbitant amount in the blinds.
On the flop I just think we have a enough equity against his any two range to check-call. Sure, he will realize his equity well sometimes, but I see enough future scenarios where we get him to make much larger mistakes than we will ourselves be making if we surrender the pot a bit more often than we would like.
Also when we check call we let the big blind in. I don’t really see this as a problem, they are going to be making huge errors themselves and getting two calls might prevent us from getting bluffed on total blanks and hence lead to an easier realization of our equity.
Not strong opinions from me here.
Just jamming pre is +EV against realistic calling ranges for BB and Button, which is a good reason not to entertain folding. Flatting as opposed to 3-betting was my attempt to play a smaller pot on the rare occasion that I’m OOP to the toughest of my opponents.
When I flop so well, I think my strategy has to be built around getting him to put as money into the pot with air as possible before blowing him off of his equity. I do think that check-calling flops and check-shoving most turns is a viable, possibly better way of doing that.
You had a good run, Andrew! Grist for the mill. GL to Nate and I’ll be eager to hear the podcasts.
Snowie tends to raise or fold the small blind against a steal. This makes sense to me out of position and given the fact that a good BB should overcall a lot if we call. But, with a bad BB I like calling pre. FYI – Snowie raises JTs and folds J9s.
On the flop this seems like a check to me. We probably have better fold equity check-raising than donking. And we’re perfectly happy to see the turn. When I’m deciding between checking and betting one thing I try to think about if I’m OK with the next card coming. The only bad cards for us here are non-club aces.
If we check, Villain may bet small enough that we can just check-call and have good odds (probably what would have happened here). If he bets larger we can consider shoving (or at least implying that we’re committed considering the stack sizes). If he checks back we get to see if the turn improves us before putting in more chips.
I can see that the stack size is awkward but IMO we have enough equity to just check-call the flop – this assumes that Villain will bet the flop small enough which seems like a good assumption in this tourney. That should leave us a reasonable check-raising stack on the turn.
From a GTO perspective our hand is too strong to donk bluff and too weak to donk for value. We should be check-calling or check-raising depending on Villain’s sizing and the likelihood we’ll get paid if we hit the turn. Given the additional factor that there are almost no bad turns for us I really prefer checking the flop.
When our donk is raised we have to put in 2700 to win 12,750 so we only need 21% equity. We have plenty of equity to just call if we assume any implied odds at all. Villain probably doesn’t have enough folding hands in his flop raising range for a raise to be better than a call. We’ll have enough chips to make him fold his air later if we want.
Have you been leading flops without the lead? The donk shove screams flush draw to me. What does our fold equity look like when we lead and he pops it to 4500? Seems like a very strong line.
Did he give you a weird look when you turned over Jc9c? Do you think he knew you were a pro? In non standard spots like this (or any spot), do the choices you make differ when having 100% of yourself vs when you have sold pieces to people?
He probably googled me before the day began, and if not he probably figured out that I knew what I was doing in the first two hours. I don’t think I played the hand in a way that would raise eyebrows even if I’d just sat down at the table, though.
Selling action definitely didn’t affect me here. There are times when I catch myself thinking “You’re going to have to explain this if it doesn’t work”, but I’m pretty good at putting that out of my head. I only sell to people who trust me and understand poker, so if it’s really not a play that I can explain to them, it’s probably not a play I should be making anyway.
Think I prefer the fold pre not just because of our hand, position and villain. But also as described I think that I’d rather be stealing vs the other softer spots at the table than defending in this spot. And I do like a blind defend that is for sure!!! 🙂
As played I know it seems fairly standard but I prefer chk/jam rather than the donk lead, although I totally get your reasoning for doing so based upon history and the sizing you use.
Another thought that came to me though here upon first reading was, is it not probably +ev to 3b/5b jam? You mention that villain has been in pre-flop war previously, so he may try and 4b rather than peel your 3b. If he does peel we probably play fairly well vs his peeling range imo. But I think I quite like a 3b/5b in line too.
Yes, I think both making a huge 3-bet jam and 3-betting planning to 5-bet jam would be profitable lines. So why fold pre?
I think I prefer fold pre because you describe that the table is pretty soft other than this villain and I figure I can get easier chips from the softer spots at the table….. but that is probs just the nit in me passing up a +ev spot!!! 😀
That actually brings me to a wider question then that I have with my fellow grinder back home who is a total online beast. Should we look to take every +ev spot? no matter how marginal? (not saying this is that marginal as villain opening range here is very wide as acknowledged). I argue that taking every +ev spot just increases variance too much for me (again the nit in me probs), but he argues we have to take these and not be scared of them if we want to win comps.
Regarding taking every +ev spot — there are reasons to pass up +cEV spots in tournaments, but $-variance is never the reason why. It’s important to remember that in a field where you have 0% edge (all players equal skill), flipping for your stack on the first hand of the tournament doesn’t even increase your $-variance by much at all. That’s because you are only going to cash 10-15% of the time, so taking a 50% chance of losing now doesn’t change your change of cashing overall by very much. You will cash more often when you double up and less (understatement) when you lose.
The reasons to pass on +cEV spots are when you have an ICM-reason to do so or based on your edge in the field. The main event is a high buy-in, no re-entries tournament with a very weak field, so you’re more likely to find a spot where you actually want to pass up a +cEV spot.
If you are frequently passing up good spots because you are a nit, you are giving up a significant edge. Do you really think you’re good enough that you should throw away equity just to stay in the tournament, at which point you will throw away more equity when the next marginal spot comes up?
Well said. FWIW I don’t think this an especially close spot. I’m a 55% favorite against a random hand pre-flop and a 59% favorite on that flop.
Preflop I can see your argument for calling, but I would be 3 betting this hand probably about 75% of the time to an active button stealer.
On the flop, I like the lead out. But, when I see a competent player re raise a players donk bet it usually sets alarms off. Most of the time when a good player donk bets he has either a strong hand or a good draw. So when your opponent raises here, I think it’s very unlikely he’s trying to re raise bluff that range. He at worst has a nut flush draw, although I would see more calls from nutt draws since he has position.
Given your stack size, calling the flop is not an option. So shove or fold. Given the re raise of the Donk bet I have to say I would really think twice about shoving here. I don’t mind the shove, and might do the same in your spot. But, I have just seen way too many strong hands in this situation and I really don’t mind folding. I know others may disagree, or find me to be results oriented. But, the more I work it out. The more I like I fold.
Also, your recent reply of being a 59% favorite against a random hand I disagree with also. Based on the action, can’t we assume villain at least has top pair? So if villain has A/10 for top pair your closer to 55% favorite. But, what if villian also has AA with the Ace of clubs. Your at best a 45% dog. And given that flop range I really have to lean more to a value range your behind.
I respect you a lot as a player Andrew, but I don’t think it’s as close as you think.
For what it’s worth, I agree with what you said.
Also, I think he meant he was 59% at the time of his lead out bet. I would imagine Andrew doesn’t think he has 59% after the villain raises.
Andrew, what value hands are you taking this same line with? I’m having a hard time coming up with anything the villain can give you credit for. Like, bottom set, maybe? Did he snap call?
I have a sneaking suspicion that the 5 bet / cbet hand you saw earlier was actually him just having a top 2% hand. Also, you have position on him at least 8 times an orbit. You could make his life hell all day.
FWIW, I would have just 3 bet and folded to further action.
See my comment to DJ below. I bet the flop specifically to induce a bluff raise. If you think betting the flop doesn’t make sense for a monster hand, isn’t that a good reason for Villain to raise with air?
“you have position on him at least 8 times an orbit. You could make his life hell all day.”
How far would you take this? Would you fold AK because this is the one time per orbit you don’t have position? AJ? QJs?
“FWIW, I would have just 3 bet and folded to further action.”
Roughly how often do you think Villain will do each of fold/call/4-bet to your 3-bet?
“How far would you take this? Would you fold AK because this is the one time per orbit you don’t have position? AJ? QJs?”
I think the top 5% of hands are going to play themselves. I think of it more in terms of you have position on him 8 times an orbit so I could justify playing pretty standard in the SB just because you’ll probably win the battle of trading mistakes during the session and that the blind defense responsibility is split between you and the BB.
“Roughly how often do you think Villain will do each of fold/call/4-bet to your 3-bet?”
Fold 80% / 4 Bet 7% / Call the rest of the time if I had to guess. Maybe I’m way off?
I think playing J9s against a button min-raise in a game with antes is pretty standard, moreso than folding 95% of hands to a button open 😉
I do think you’re way off on the Fold to 3bet. No good player is going to fold that often even OOP, let alone IP. You are right that 3-betting (with any two) would be best if he were going to fold that much.
Thanks for the comment. I don’t necessarily disagree, but there are a few things you didn’t address:
1. If you 3-bet, what’s your plan for a 4-bet?
2. Roughly how often do you think Villain will do each of fold/call/4-bet to your 3-bet?
3. “Given your stack size, calling the flop is not an option.” I’m not familiar with this rule. How could folding be better than calling with a flush draw getting 4:1?
4. I’m putting Villain on any two cards pre-flop. You’re giving him only the top 5% or so of those hands once he raises my flop lead. What do you think he is doing with the other 95%?
5. When I say 59%, that’s my equity vs Villain’s range for seeing the flop. It’s the reason I’m inclined to play my hand strongly rather than defensively. Basically, if I’m not going to shove to a flop raise, then I should do something other than lead the flop. I do think it’s possible that check-raising would be preferable and a better way to get him to put money into the pot with air.
1. For 3 betting Jack/9 pre I would first determine what my prior 3 betting image was, and what Villians perception of my image is. In your case you’ve been pretty active, so I would lean more toward folding Jack/9. But, I don’t mind the call. I just think 3 betting or folding are better options. I still think there is a large portion of Villians range he should be folding to your 3 bet.
2. Villian has already got in to a 3 bet war. But, maybe he had a hand. How often would he be 4 bet bluffing here is a great question. I think villian should be folding to a 3 bet 80% of the time. Calling maybe 12% and 4 betting maybe 8%. If he’s outside of that range I believe he’s making a mistake. If he’s slightly looser maybe you can say F3bet 75%, call 15%, 4 bet 10%. And these ranges can be skewed slightly looser based on your image, but not too much more.
3. Calling is not an option in my opinion because after Villians flop 3 bet you have to put in nearly 1/3 of your stack to see the next card with no guarantees you’ll get to see the river if you miss your gut shot and flush draw. So what’s your plan on the turn when you miss? Check? Lead out again? Plus if you were planning on seeing a turn card, I would have prefered check calling the flop more, and keeping the pot smaller.
4. Once villian raises that flop I really think the bluffing part of his range is a lot more narrow because it’s such a coordinated board. The same also goes for your perceived range. How often would you be leading, and with what hands. I think big draws and monsters have to be considered as a bigger part of your range. With that said, how often would villian raise that range? I think he should be folding 80% of his range, calling maybe 10%, and raising maybe 10% with 5 % of that range being bluffs with air, and the other 5 % being for value. But, given your flop action if I was in Villians shoes I would be less likely to bluff raise you.
5. I really think the check raise might be better. If you check raise, and villian 4 bets the flop I think you can comfortably fold. I just think Jack/9 is not as good here as 7/8 of spades or Queen/Jack. I would rather be getting it all in with an open ended straight and flush draw, or two overs and a gut shot and straight draw. I think your equity is just too close with Jack/9.
1. As long as BB isn’t too squeezey, which this one definitely wasn’t, calling pre has to be better than folding. You’re ahead of his range, you’re getting good odds, and you have a hand that plays well OOP.
2. If I thought Villain would fold 75% to a 3-bet, I would 3-bet. It’s probably closer to 60%, which is about what it should be considering I’ll risk roughly the size of the pot to 3-bet him and there is another player still to act when I make the 3-bet.
3. Calling flop and check-folding turns that don’t improve me would be a better strategy than folding to a flop raise. If you think Villain will often fold to a flop bet and rarely raise, why do you think check-calling is better than bet-calling? When you bet, according to your numbers, you win the pot immediately 80% of the time.
4. If Villain’s going to fold 80% of the time, I should be leading any two cards.
5. I really think you are approaching this the wrong way by looking for excuses to fold. You have a hand that is ahead of Villain’s absurdly wide range for seeing the flop and has decent equity even against the top of his range. Have you read my latest 2+2 article? “I would rather be getting it all in with an open ended straight and flush draw, or two overs and a gut shot and straight draw.” I’d rather be getting it in with a set. That doesn’t mean I’m going to fold every hand that isn’t a set.
All of your points are valid Andrew. I think the main point I’m trying to make is not whether your play was the right play mathematically. It clearly is. However, was it the right play when you lead the pot, narrowing your range to the villian, and allowing the villian to play with your hand nearly face up? That’s why I would argue check calling the flop would be better than leading. It keeps your range wide, and there is still opportunity for you to take the pot away on the turn or river.
I also understand your getting 4 to 1 on a flop call, after Villians 3 bet, but I don’t believe you will get paid when the scare card comes in on the turn that puts you in the lead. That’s why I’m advocating folding.
This is clearly a hand that is very polarizing, and I don’t think you played it bad. I just feel your opponent most likely knew exactly where you were at when you shoved.
What you haven’t justified yet is why leading the flop narrows my range. Why can’t I have Jh 9h here? Villain’s range for seeing the flop is absurdly wide, and the BB’s is even weaker (since he passed a chance to raise). When I bet the flop, Villain has 2 choices:
1. Fold a huge % of the time.
2. Play back at me by calling or raising with weak hands.
You seem to assume he will rarely do (2). If that’s the case, then I can show a profit betting out with literally anything. This is a strong argument for him to do some of (2), which is an argument for me to shove good semi-bluffing hands over his raise. A strategy of bet-shoving this flop has to be profitable. It’s possible that most of that profit comes from his folds, and when he raises we could exploit him by folding to that raise. If it turns out he is bluff-raising the flop, though, then a strategy of bet-folding this hand is not profitable because I’m folding too often to his raise and he’s printing money with his bluffs. Precisely because of how wide I can lead the flop, I don’t think I can assume he doesn’t have an appropriate bluff raising range.
There are plenty of arguments to support your decision.
I just wonder how much an auxiliary event-(the last hand before break) contributed to this course of action.
What are the chances you folding preflop in situation where this is very first hand in the morning?
I just lost 3K and your boustout reminds me my problem with my entitlement and attitude.
I do NOT imply this is your problem.
I play frequently in ring games where I believe I am the best player.
When I see good player at my table I do not like him very much because he “steals my money” .
Usually I take very unreasonably aggressive stance against him vs safe approach.
It made me think he had a wider range than usual and focus more on inducing from the huge, weak air portion of his range. I wouldn’t be folding this to a button min-raise in a game with antes at any time of day.
I see.
My decision process is much more sensitive to auxiliary factors: sleep,food,breaks,boredom,attitude,entitlement,emotion.
The range estimation is nontransparent ,unconscious calculation in my case.
My conscious receive only final conclusion: he has wide range and feeling urgency that I have do something about that.
While normally J9s is a perfectly acceptable hand with which to defend a blind against an aggressive button raiser (I’d sometimes call, sometimes 3bet), in this case I fold. It’s early in the tournament, there’s only one good player you have to worry about, and he covers you. You have direct position on him 7 out of 9 hands. At this stage of the tournament, with the rest of the table as they are, I’ll avoid him the other 2 out of 9 hands unless I’ve got a hand I really want to play with him out of position. This isn’t one of them.
“This isn’t one of them.” Why not?
It would have been interesting to see responses to this if the result was unknown. I get the feeling that some comments may be prejudiced by knowing the outcome – almost as if working back from the bust out to see how it could be avoided.
If you are reasonably certain that the BB will play ball I don’t like a fold pf – you’re risking less than 5% of your stack for around 3.5/1 (assuming BB completing), with a hand that flops very well, against a button raiser with a wide range. He may be a good player but you can’t pass up too many of these spots. Don’t think I could find a fold here (altho I only play LOW stakes :-B )
After that though I am checking the flop because that is what I would do to nearly any pf raiser oop. Then re-raising all in – so busting out as well. Sick game eh.
Unlucky Andrew, but think this is just one of those spots where you are stacking off and it’s left with the poker gods.
Leading flops is tricky, and reminds me of the LivB interview and of one of the great Australian cricketers, Steve Waugh (IIRC). Supposedly as a young batsman, Waugh had all the different strokes and was attractive to watch, but was somewhat mercurial, getting out in spots that he perhaps shouldn’t have. At some point in his career, he decided to limit his repertoire and the risk that it involved, and thereby became perhaps less interesting to watch, but harder to get out and thereby more effective overall.
If we never lead flops then we don’t have to construct and balance two continuing ranges and there’s no information leakage in a flop check. On the other hand, perhaps we can identify certain flop textures and stack depths which are conducive to leading out, and on them lead out everything we want to bluff/continue with, giving us effectively a leading range and a check-folding range (although there are obvious problems with this idea).
I do agree with this generally. I think this is a very specific situation because of how much stronger my range for seeing the flop is compared to his. This will always be somewhat the case when you call SB vs BN (and actually a lot of your arguments against leading also apply to trying to have both a cold calling and a 3betting range from SB) but is magnified here.