Game is $5/$10 no-limit hold ’em. Villain begins the hand with $1570, Hero covers as does the rest of the table. He’s a very good player, reads hands well, and is capable of pretty much anything. He’s maybe at times a little overly loose and aggressive but all in all a tough opponent. I believe he perceives Hero in roughly the same way.
There’s a straddle to $20, and Villain opens for $80 in the hijack (two seats off the button). Hero calls with Jh Th on the button, and the straddle calls. Like most straddlers, this one is defending his straddle with quite a wide range.
Flop ($255 in pot) Tc 9d 4h. Straddle checks, Villain bets $180, I call, and straddle folds.
Turn ($615 in pot) Qd. We both check.
River ($615 in pot) Ks. Villain checks. Hero?
What’s your play and why? If you bet, be sure to discuss your target and your plan if raised. I’ll do my best to respond to comments during the week, and I’ll post results and my thoughts on Friday.
I think this is a pretty rough spot for us. Its difficult for us to have much in our range worth value betting other than the straight, which polarizes our river betting range, indicating we should bet big. At the same time, it is much easier for villain to have AJ, so the top of his range is stronger than ours, which makes it dangerous for us to be building a big pot and exposing our stack on a check-raise jam.
I am also finding it difficult to find a good value target for our hand. I don’t think he continues very often with less than two pair. But what two pair+ hand is in his range that bets flop and checks turn? KT?
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but since I can’t envision many good outcomes by betting, I check back river like a total wuss.
This hand has stuck with me. One point that I don’t see being made that often is that once Hero checks back turn, his range is going to be perceived as super heavy with Pair+Straight Draw type hands. When the straight comes in on the river, I don’t think villain will expect hero to fold a J very often. So how often is he really going to check-jam as a bluff? I think he’s much more likely to shove AJ and Jx.
I think a bet-call line on the river basically allows villain to freeroll for our whole stack.
I’d bet 400$ and call a shove. I would absolutely not check behind here.
I feel you’re playing into the “hero checking” discussion in the last episode, thinking commenter might say they want to hero check. However, this is a terrible spot to hero check. Hero checking makes sense when you’re ahead almost always, but can’t get called by much (presumably because your range is way too strong). In this spot, however, your range is pretty weak and you can get called by a lot.
First of all, let’s look at our range and villain’s range: Our range looks full of middle-value hands: a few one-pair hands or air (98, 87, random floats), a lot of two-pair hands (KQ, KT, K9, QT), and some Jx hands (KJ, JT). Notice that we don’t have many QJ because we’d often raise those OTF, and notice that AJ is basically not in our range at all, so our range is capped at the 2nd nuts.
Villain presumably still has a lot of his pre-flop range. His flop cbet doesn’t mean a ton on this texture, and his turn check on this texture also doesn’t mean a lot. I’d actually expect him to barrel pretty often with AJ or with a picked up flushdraw, so the turn action discount Jx and particularly AJ a bit. Then his river action further discount Jx and AJ: he should bet with Jx and often also with AJ because hero so often has middle-value hands on this texture that he can bluffcatch with. So villain’s range OTR is all his preflop range, with Jx and AJ discounted.
So, whose range is stronger? Well, hero’s range and villain’s range are very similar, except that hero’s range is strongly capped at the second nuts while villain’s isn’t, and villain has a lot more air than hero. Villain also has AA in his range, which he might view as a good candidate for check-raise bluffing. But the important thing to note here is that both hero and villain have a lot of middle-value hands (two pairs, etc), and almost never have AJ. In particular, villain has a lot of hands to call us with, and we have enough weak hands in our range that we can rep a bluff. So we should bet. We should remember that our range looks pretty weak and capped, and we’re literally at the top of our range, so we should call if villain chooses to shove.
Another possible option was to bet smaller, say 250$ or 300$, hoping to induce villain to bluff-raise us with AA or some other Ax hands. The problem with this is that we probably can’t bet for thin value in this spot with almost any hand, and villain has a lot of middle-value hands, so villain shouldn’t really be turning a lot of hands into bluffs, and in general shouldn’t be bluff-raising a lot. So I prefer a more sizable bet sizing of around 400$.
Do note that if we decide to bet Jx here then we *have* to bet/call, because we’re at the top of our range, so if we opt to bet/fold here then we should have had no betting range at all. So if we ever want to value bet thin here with say KQ, or to bluff, then we should also bet/call Jx.
Andrew, First I would like to say thanks for posting the hand. Second I’m a regular listener to the podcast with you and Nate. On to the hand….
I believe Hero has the nuts at this point in the hand. My reasoning is: I think Villain continues to barrel on the turn with AJ when picking up the open ended draw. Secondly hero has a J. The likely hood of villain having AJ is reduced. Third all players want to get paid when they make the nuts; villain would have led the river with the AJ. He knows your good and wouldn’t take a chance that you would check behind.
All of the tricks villain would use to gain value from us, if he had AJ, we are going to use against villain. Villain has ~1300 behind my goal is to convince villain to unleash his aggression. IF VILLAIN FOLDS IT’S A DISASTER FOR HERO.
I would bet around 300. This bet is so enticing, I think we get paid by villains entire showdown value range (99+, AK, AQ).
The sizing of this bet has another role, it disguises our hand and may convince villain to check raise bluff all in. As I mentioned earlier I’m playing this hand like I have the nuts. I will call any raise. I want villain to BLUFF shove.
If villain has AJ, oh well cooler, reload.
loosemmjan
I seriously thought I was making some progress in my skill level until I read this. Clearly there is something I am missing.
He’s a LAG in late position so he could have a ton preflop. He bets a flop that’s not great for his range, but many aggro villains do this. Nothing too special.
He checks the turn, so maybe he has something marginal or maybe he’s giving up.
He checks the river which again is nothing special. We only lose to 12 of the probably hundreds of combos he could take this line. We have the best hand a shit ton of the time here. The second nuts is too strong not to bet. We could get called by a number of hands that decided to pot control the turn or river. I mean is he really just check folding KQ or KT here?
If we think he is capable of bluff raising a bunch, then we can just call the raise since he only has 12 hands that beat us.
If we don’t think he is capable of bluff raising, then we can just fold to the raise.
As for my answer, if he’s overly loose and capable of anything, then I think we can bet call, especially since the odds wouldn’t be the worst in the world.
I know I am missing something here, but I hope it’s something new. If there is an obvious reason to check back with the second nuts (I would check back with a set since it doesn’t have any card removal) that I should know then I’m gonna feel like I’ve lost a step.
Cant wait to learn more from the answer to this one.
Difficulty to find value target and good outcome of betting(putting at risk whole stack) are valid points.
But you have two very good players at 5-10$.
You can expect much wider ranges for their actions.
They will go both beyond (action,board) range analysis.
They will both try to probe their conscious.
I will bet 100$ to get some info.
There is of course another possibility.If this is true that PokerSnowy is solid long term winner in 6-max.
One of player can actively use real-time PokerSnowy advice.
Players who play 5/10$ have budget to rent good programmer to implement custom program.
The program will read output from poker client,input the data via RPC to PokerSnowy on another computer.
My point is that we need to analyze this hand in the context of such possibility too.
But the info you get is either:
A) you bet too small and made only $100
B) you got checkraised and now are put in a difficult spot for no reason.
First I do not play 6-max Holdem at all.But I do not think I put myself in difficult spot for no reason.
Why are you betting for information on the river? When do you plan to use that information? On the ocean?
This is from a full ring live game, sorry if I didn’t make that clear (not a lot of straddling online, in my experience ;-)). So I’m not worried about Villain using Snowie in real time.
You probably Andrew right regarding Snowy.You can get pretty good pics using cell.
The number one challenge is creating image processing software to process and calculate stack,pot, bet-sizing from images of chips on the table.
Mark regarding a ocean.
Some players believe that their rational decision maker made great queses(commit) by inducing check-raise bluff with very deliberate (350) bet sizing.
I question if this bet sizing is truly deliberate action.
I believe that this is often not the case.
Their rational decision maker often experience cognitive overload at least in this particular situation.
It looks that PokerSnowy does not have this problem.
But forget PokerSnowy which is not main factor here.
Maybe because my HU background I use my instincts rather than my rational brain playing poker.
Because of this assumption and my subjective live experience I clearly prefer different option.
Live poker is what I call high-density info environment to compare with online one.
I believe that good live players possess a ocean of very implicit knowledge-a good instincts,a sensory sensitivity,etc in their arsenal.
Because implicit is the key word I will have to use metaphor.
The 100$ is the right price to increase cognitive overload.
The 100$ is the right price of taste chewing gum for my instincts. I will enjoy to chew it and I will enjoy to spit.
villain’s preflop range should be fairly wide, given Andrew description. On the flop, i think he’s cbet range consists most, if not all, of his range. I would discount some of his complete air b/c ppl tend to be more honest in multiway pots.
once he checks the turn i think he’s range is mostly medium strength made hands that he’s hoping to get to show down or induce bluffs from hero. i seriously doubt he’s checking AJ, or any two broadway cards, here. I mean, what’s he planning to do? check/call, or check/fold? both sounds bad to me.
he could be checking on the turn with the intention of check/raising with a draw or big hand. but once hero checks back. it seems hero’s range is very weak. there’s no reason to believe hero would do the betting for him after he checks the river. So i would discount a lot of str8, including the nut st8 combos from him.
it seems he’s just checking on the turn and river to give up or pot control with a weak made hand like AT or A9. against an average i would bet ~$250 hoping get a crying call from those weak hands. against this particular one who can hand read well, i would bet big, maybe ~$650, hoping he bluff catches with a hand that he would fold to a smaller bet.
if he raises our $650 dollar bet, it’ll be a tough decision, which i don’t think would happen often. but i’d probably look at the odds i’m getting and make a decide.
Given opponent’s tendencies, it seems doubtful he’s checking AJ too often on the flop, so I would feel comfortable (though not wonderful) calling any size checkraise. Based on villain’s bet of flop but check on turn, I would expect him to often have a hand like AT, QJ, AK, 98. In general, I’m thinking most of his range won’t call a very big bet, though might turn into a check-raise bluff.
I would consider two options:
A) bet the most you think AK would call – my guess 200.
B) bet whatever amount you think makes him most likely to check-raise bluff – my guess 350.
I prefer option B because I just don’t think he’s going to have too many hands to call you with worse.
“Given opponent’s tendencies, it seems doubtful he’s checking AJ too often on the flop”
Do you mean the turn? Villain did bet the flop.
Re: your A, what would Villain’s logic be for calling $200 with AK? In other words, what hands would he expect Hero to bluff with?
Yes, I did mean the turn; thank you for noticing/clarifying.
Regarding A, I think we could have A8s or A7s that was a backdoor flushdraw on the flop, We could have 98, 88, 77 that we are turning into a bluff.
I also think that if villain is making any attempt at balanced play that AK is definitely close enough to the top of his range that it would be exploitable to fold it.
Given the action I think his range is weighted heavily toward broadway hands like AT+ and KQ. I think with 55-88 and below 9 suited connectors he would be more likely to barrel the turn, but not necessarily, so these could be in his range as well (I just think a smaller % than broadway hands). Also, with anything stronger like sets or 2 pair he would be more likely to bet the turn as well.
The straight is obvious, so to me the question is whether to value bet targeting hands like AQ and AK balanced against how likely he is to turn those hands into a bluff and whether we want to call the check-raise. He’s a good thinking player so I think he would be capable of both bluff raising with those hands and also bluff raising off of a chop in addition.
So the question is whether he would do that in an optimal manner.
As to the bet amount, I think you need to bet small to get a call from the one pair hands so if I did bet it would be about $200.
I’m not sure how that would affect how likely he would be to check-raise and his range for his check-raise.
Another factor is variance – by checking we don’t have to worry about all this and we reduce our variance. That’s one reason why I would check in an actual game.
What hands that AK or AQ could beat do you see Hero playing this way? In other words, what would Hero be bluffing with?
Hands like 78 or 98. I think it’s likely for you to get here on this action with those hands. I think you need to value bet small to get him to call with AK or AQ as those hands are only bluff catchers. If you bet $200 then you have to be bluffing 25% of the time for him to call. I’m not sure how often you would bet in this spot, so the bet amount should be adjusted according to that.
20%, actually. He’d be calling $200 to win $815. You forgot to add Hero’s bet to the size of the pot.
Mightn’t Hero bet at least the 87 on the turn, though?
Yes, but I don’t think you should always bet the turn with 87, you are getting a free card, so I would think you would only bet it some % of the time to balance your range. So if that’s 50% then you have 1/2 the combos of 87 in your range on the river.
So 2 combos? I mean I’m not calling pre-flop with 87o.
If that’s the case, then yes, and add that to 910 combos you would get here with.
In position, I think I would have some combos 87o in my pre-flop calling range – maybe that’s wrong, but I was answering based on that.
Been reading for awhile & thought I’d take a stab at this one, though I’m fully ready to feel like an idiot .. I’m trying to think of what hands would make him want to check the turn. He must think that flop hit your pre-flop calling range pretty well, meaning you could have a lot of one pair hands with straight draws or, less likely, 2 pair hands.
When the turn comes, if he puts you on a draw when he has a marginal to good made hand (AQ, KQ, AT, 99, any 2 pair, even QQ), he’s got to bet to at least make you pay for the draw. A monster draw like AJd would have to bet, too, to try to get stacks in on the river if he hits.
So I think you have to put him on air, a picked-up non-nut flush draw, the same straight draw as you, or maybe the KJ made straight (where he might have been planning to check-raise for value on the turn). I could see a check w/ AJo, but assuming he would have bet AJd, there are only 11 combos left that beat you, so the vast majority of his range is chops and air. When you check back, he has to discount picked-up flush draws, too, but would probably leave most jacks in your range, along with 2 pair hands.
Given all that, the question might be whether getting him off a chop is more possible than getting him to bluff check-raise. Since he’s a good and LAG-ish and might give you credit for a 2 pair hand, a bluff check-raise seems more likely to me. So a $350 bet planning to call any raise. You’re either chopping or picking it off. If he’s got AJo, I’m an idiot.
“A monster draw like AJd would have to bet, too, to try to get stacks in on the river if he hits.”
If Villain bet Ad Jd on the turn, he’d be hoping for a fold, not hoping to build the pot for the 25% of the time that he improves.
“If he’s got AJo, I’m an idiot.”
Are you? It doesn’t seem like you were ruling that out, just saying he could have other stuff as well. The possibility of running into AJ doesn’t automatically make bet-calling bad, as long as we can beat enough bluffs.
Besides checking back, our other option is to bet 1/3 pot and fold to a shove. This would be what I call a chop-fold. Villain doesn’t expect Hero to fold a jack. Also, Hero has a preponderance of jacks in their range. Straights of the one-card variety for Hero include J8s, J9s(o?), JTo, QJ, KJ. All those hands call flop and preflop.
In that sense JX is high up in Hero’s own range, but it is also not that high. This is because it is such a large portion of the range itself. Once Hero bets river, that portion increases remarkably.
But, we are protected if we believe (and I don’t think we should believe otherwise) that Villain thinks we can fold a jack.
We do have some air on the river, 78 and 67s. In lieu of our air/jack ratio, the correct bet size is probably closer to 80$.
To me it seems like folding to a shove would be a mistake to villain as described. Given how Villain played the hand, I don’t think we can completely eliminate AJ from his range, but we have to deeply discount it at the least. Checking the river with AJ seems like a major mistake for a villain described as good and tricky. As Gareth stated, hero has a lot of Jx in his range, but he also has plenty of 2 pair and good 1 pair hands as well (KT, T9, QT(?), KQ, AQ etc: many of the same hands in villain’s range). Many of these 1 and 2 pair hands would call a small or medium-sized bet but check behind, so checking would be a mistake, and would be a total disaster if he thinks hero might check back a bare jack. So given that AJ must be heavily discounted, then if we think villain will ever check-raise as a bluff (or even to try to force us off a chop) we probably need to call, as his range will have to be unbalanced since he has so few value-raising hands. Also, in addition to air, I think hero has enough other hands he can turn into bluffs on this board (T8, 98, 66-55) that villain would be tempted to call with 2 pair hands. For this reason, I would bet ~300 targeting KQ, KT and sets. I would call a shove.
One possibility that hasn’t been mentioned, and is probably wrong but worth bringing up, is to shove with the intention of making villain fold a bare jack. The only way this might be the best play would be if we were almost sure villain would fold hands even as strong as KQ, and also might consider folding to a shove while holding a Jack. Again, I don’t think this is correct in this case but worth considering at least (getting him to fold a J is very profitable after all, I just don’t think the villain as described will do so and also I think villain will call a 1/2 pot bet with plenty of hands that are beat). The more sure we are he would fold KQ, the better shoving becomes, as even if he only has a small chance of folding a Jack, its fine if we have nothing to lose by passing up a smaller bet.
You meant to say “if Villain thinks we CAN’T fold a Jack”, right? FWIW, this wouldn’t necessarily protect us from having Villain shove with a bare Jack trying to get us off of a chop, since he’s freerolling if he thinks Hero wouldn’t play AJ this way.
Not sure if your comment is re my comment or Gareth’s. Either way, after reading other comments and thinking more, i want to double down on my claim that we can’t fold to a shove if we bet. I am comfortable giving Villain only 3 of the 12 possible AJ combos given how he played the hand (even this seems high). If he is only value-raising 3 combos, then we literally only need a single combo for him to bluff in order to call. Given the villain is described as “capable of pretty much anything” and “at times a little bit loose and aggressive”, I think we can give him at least a couple combos of bluffs. Even if we give him 0 bluff combos, we only need 4 or 5 combos of bare Js pushing us off a chop to call.
I shove for about 2x the pot.
1. He is thinking player, aggro, who has seen us do nothing but call or check behind. We should not have a hand here very often. If this is true and he has the straight, why is he not betting it himself? Would he not attempt to get a small value on river if we did not take the bait on the turn if he already had a straight?
2. He sees us as thinking aggro player. But the hero did not stab at the turn with his combo draw? So, wouldn’t a thinking player wonder why not? He gave us a green light, yet we did not take it. So, that should really widen our range, including lots of bluffs.
3. Lots of bluffs, wide range, aggro player who was not aggro on previous street? this would seem like a good time to make him decide : hero call us, or give up to the ‘obvious’ play we are making on him. I believe Andrew repped quads a while back IP vs a thinking player, so why not here? And if you can rep the nuts with nothing, should we not also shove with the nuts once in a while?
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Re: your number three, Hero does not have the nuts here, and in fact I would argue that Villain has more nut combos in his range than Hero does, which makes shoving to rep a polarized range problematic.
I guess I should add that his calling range will be inelastic in my opinion. He will either put us on the nuts or air. So bet size should make him sweat. Plus, sometimes the villain wonders “why so much?”. Let’s give him a chance. He needs to call only a few times to make up for the many times he folds.
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I think checking back, as Dana notes, is worthy for lowering our variance against one of the other solid, aggressive players in our game. Failing to get value against certain players is very costly, but is more marginal against our better competition.
If we bet, we hope to get villain off a chop or get called by a weaker hand. We cannot hope to fold out better, as better is the nuts. Is there an amount that would accomplish these goals and also deter bluffs check-raises? I don’t think so. I think we want to bet big, say $450 or more, to fold out a chop and price out bluffs (price ourselves into a call). However, we would want to bet smaller, say $150-$200 to get called by worse. Against a good, aggressive player, I expect not to be called by worse often enough and I expect to face a check-raise more than I like.
My intuition is to check it back (and I most likely would do that), but I like Gareth’s suggestion. I think he gives a good implementation of Andrew’s idea of finding the top of your own range against good players.
So you’re saying bet $450 and fold to a check-raise? Cuz if you’re planning to call a check-raise, then you wouldn’t want to deter bluffs…
Yes, folding to a raise. My number $450 may not be enough, but my point was, if we are betting to fold out a chop and make it clear we are never folding, a good player ought only check raise us with better. Of course I see now that may be a bad assumption. He could check raise us with a chopped hand.
Foucault writes “not the nuts….villain has more nut combos than hero”
Agreed, not the ‘nuts’ but why would villain have more AJ than we would? Seems like the PF cold caller might have more AJ. (Is AJ an auto 3bet ? Especially with a Straddler who defends wide?)
The C bettor who stops C betting w/OESD on Turn would have ‘more’ than the flatter who is IP?
Could you elaborate on this idea?
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Not that I love betting flop with AJ as Villain, but calling as Hero is much worse. Also we both checked the turn, I don’t see why his check would rule out the nuts more than mine would.
As for what hands I am targeting, I think Villain might be tempted to call us with something as weak as AK. It is a reasonable way to play it IMO, or KQ, ,,,some other two pair hands.
If we get shown a chop or beat by the AJ Andrew mentions, I think it might help us in the future in our battles with Villain. Being willing to shove a value hand that is ‘not’ the nuts should make his calldowns harder in the future.
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Foucault writes: “Not that I love betting flop with AJ as Villain, but calling as Hero is much worse”
I do not play higher limiits but I recall stuff like “2 overs, BDFD, BDSD…. I call” in other situations (Here I am assuming I have the 3 combos of AJs)
Course it probably was HU without a Straddler with a wide range yet to act, but would you ever float (perhaps the wrong term, but just meant with less than great odds) this flop?
IF so, how much would being multi way change the percentage?
On a side note, would you fold the Turn to a $400 bet?
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Foucault writes: “Also we both checked the turn, I don’t see why his check would rule out the nuts more than mine would.”
I was thinking that a tough opp who C bets the flop on this board 3way might be less likely to do so with a weak hand/air. But if he DID, I would expect him to double barrel if he picks up equity as good as OESD on the turn.
Sounds like it might be a bad assumption though.
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I think that villain cbets all his ranges for value and bluff on this flop.
It’s difficult to narrow his range on the turn because the turn’s card can be a bluffing card, but also can help some drawing hands.
So, we can put off his range big made hands like sets, 2 pairs or overpairs.
On villain’s point of view, hero’s range seems to be strong, so he can check a Queen because he can be way ahead or way behind.
On the other side I think he can check a hand that gains in equity like AJ.
When hero checks on the turn, villain can narrow his range to a pair and a pair with a draw. I think that hero will bet with made hands like 2 pairs or sets
and with bluffing hands.
At this point villain can have AJ in his range but hero cannot.
With this in mind hero has just a bluff catcher, so if villain wants to be called with the nuts, he bets the river,
and if villain wants to bluff he has to check/raise the river.
When villain checks the river I think he has a range of check/fold (anything with showdown value < KQ), a range of check/call (KQ) and a range of check/raise in bluff (air).
Therefore, my move on the river will be to target the check/raising range (the check/calling range is too tiny) and to bet 2/3 pot.
I think hero’s hand ends up too strong to check down. Based on preflop raise, c-bet-call, turn check, river check, to me it’s difficult to put villian on a J let alone AJ. How often would he check over the nuts on the river especially after Hero called the flop bet, then checked the turn(except “maybe” KJ?), which would seem to me Hero would probably check to showdown too often to be a good decision, however he might call a river bet. There are a lot of hands that villian could’ve continued betting with on the turn, but didn’t. Nobody seems too interested in this pot. I’m betting 380(slightly higher than what I think might be look like a value bet to possibly induce some crazy raise or at least a call) and calling a raise(I would expect these to be other Js or bluffs). I think villain’s river check along with the turn check just says too much.
I like Betting 1/3 pot and folding to a shove. like 225 into 615
Targeting hands Like KQ,KT,QT and K9s will pay you off
It is a tricky spot as i think you would have to fold to a jam esp as there is 1310 behind, so you can leave yourself open to be bluffed.
but i think 2 pair will pay you off sometimes, but not always.
obv error above as i say 2 pair will pay you off and then say it will sometimes!
I am in the sometimes category, but i don’t think that’s a reason not to bet
Very interesting spot. I enjoyed reading through this analysis. It may be too late but I’d like to look at this hand from the perspective of the villain (specifically his turn check).
Do you like it? I actually think he needs to barrel there for a couple reasons:
1- He could easily rep AQ, KQ, Qx which just got there. This is in addition to other strong hands since he was the initial raiser.
2- He picked up equity (OESD to the nuts) which I’ve been taught is a great way to have confidence in making that 2nd barrel
3- It likely would have taken the hand down as you probably have to fold if he fires 3/4 to full pot there.
Case for checking is that why not see a free card if he can. I assume you had position from the below description. Did you consider betting – what was your rationale for checking behind? I am tempted to bet in that spot as villain slowed down on a scary board. I guess similarly you didn’t want to get blown off your equity and took the free card.
Take care – love the podcasts —- I’m in process of getting caught up.
Chris
****
Flop ($255 in pot) Tc 9d 4h. Straddle checks, Villain bets $180, I call, and straddle folds.
Turn ($615 in pot) Qd. We both check.
River ($615 in pot) Ks. Villain checks. Hero?
What’s your play and why? If you bet, be sure to discuss your target and your plan if raised. I’ll do my best to respond to comments during the week, and I’ll post results and my thoughts on Friday.
Good questions. I agree that the turn is a good barreling spot for him, and he’s well situated to barrel rivers when he misses as well. I’m not sure why he didn’t do it, though the fact that he didn’t did influence my decision to call his shove so the deception value paid off in a concrete way. Maybe he was going to check-raise?
I think you’re correct both that I should bet the turn and also about why I didn’t. One of the key arguments in my post is that the check really narrows my range a lot, and that’s problematic when playing against a good hand reader.
Thanks for the kind words about the show!