If you’ve seen my Bluffing series on Tournament Poker Edge, then you know that I’ve got a bit of a chip on my shoulder about people who claim they can’t bluff because their opponents “never fold”. It’s just not true, and yesterday I had the chance to demonstrate this while playing in a small field, mostly locals $500 MTT with some guys who could loose-passive it up with the best of them.
Hand 1: Almost a Shame to Get There
Blinds 100/200/25, typical loose-passive limpy guy in MP open limps, CO limps behind, I make it 1000 with Kc Qc, both call.
Flop As Js 4d (3550 in pot). Checks to me, I bet 1800, MP calls, CO folds.
Turn 9h. He checks, I bet 4500 into 7100, he calls with about 19K behind (I cover).
My plan was to shove most rivers, but instead I binked the T so I bet 10K. He folded. Quite possibly even that was too much to get a call.
Let’s acknowledge a few things here: this guy almost certainly does not have AA or JJ based on the pre-flop action, and he may well fold 99 and TT on the flop. AJ and 44 are somewhat more probable, but with the draws on board and the pot getting big there’s a very good chance those hands would raise before the river. Likewise with an AK or AQ that just limp-called pre-flop. So, if you ship the river, what are you really worried about getting called by, expect maybe a rivered two-pair?
The most obvious answer would be some random Ax, so now let me ask you this: are you shoving AQ for value here? If not, then you aren’t putting your money where your mouth is on this whole “they never fold” business. If it’s that easy for you to stack someone for well over 100 BBs when you have top pair with a good kicker, then you have my permission not to bluff here.
Hand 2: Even When It Doesn’t Work
Blinds 200/400/50. A different loose-passive limpy guy, who was not at the table for Hand 1, looks at his cards before action is on him and immediately turns away and seems disinterested in the pot. Folds to him and he has to be told it’s his turn to act. He looks at his cards again and then open limps. I look left and the CO is doing the “fold hold” so I figure I have a license to come after this guy with almost anything. I make it 1600 with J4s, action folds back to the limper, and he quickly calls.
Flop (4300 in pot) AKQr. Perfect board for me, not only do I have a gutter but it also provides a blocker to the only hand better than one pair he could possibly hold. If you look at this flop and say “Crap these guys love to play broadway cards, I better take a free card and try to make a straight” you are looking at it all wrong. I bet 2200, he calls.
Turn (8700 in pot) 8r. He checks, I bet 4500, he calls.
River (17700 in pot) 9. He open shoves for about 20K.
All he had to do was check and my stack was his. But he couldn’t do it. Now think about how profitable your river shove is going to be if he can’t bring himself to check a strong hand one last time….
This article is really interesting. I am curious about your statement: “Perfect board for me, not only do I have a gutter but it also provides a blocker to the only hand better than one pair he could possibly hold. If you look at this flop and say “Crap these guys love to play broadway cards, I better take a free card and try to make a straight” you are looking at it all wrong.”
Can you walk me through what the blocker is and what you think the one more than one pair hand he could hold is, and how you are thinking about his range here?
I have to confess, I would have looked at it in the exact wrong way you describe, and would like to better understand your view.
Thanks!
I could but I’d rather you tried it yourself first. Do your best to work it out for yourself, post your best guess and your reasoning here, and then I’ll give you feedback. There’s one hand I think he could have, based on the pre-flop action, that would be stronger than one-pair on this board. That hand uses one of the cards in my hand. Those are some pretty big hints I think.
Ok, so i guess his range his capped at 22-77 plus…A2-A7s and KT-KJ, QT-QJ type hands, which is what you said was the wrong way to think about it.
So what jumps out at me is that he could have JT and you have a J so he probably doesnt have that..
So putting aside your blocker, what is the mistake in thinking he has KT-KJ or QT-QJ? That is, along with 555-77, the most likely hands he would have there I think, I would be curious as to why you think it is the wrong way to think about it. Is the presence of the blocker the main thing or is there something else….
Right, JT is the hand in question here, the only thing I’m really worried about running into. Assuming he’d always limp-call and then check the flop with it, which I think is reasonable, then my blocker means he can only have 12 combos instead of 16. Either way, it was a very small part of his limp-calling range, so he “probably doesn’t have it” even if I don’t have a blocker. But the blocker makes the play even more profitable.
There’s nothing wrong in thinking he might have KT/KJ/QJ/QT. In fact that’s what I’m hoping he has. The problem is in thinking the presence of those hands in his range means you can’t bluff.
The significant thing about JT is that it’s the only hand in his flop range that I think he’ll be willing to play for stacks unimproved. The hands you mention are likely to call the flop and turn and then fold the river if they don’t improve. KJ has 10 outs to improve, but on 4 of those outs we chop the pot. KT has 10 outs to “improve”, but 3 of those give me a straight. If I barrel all blank turns and shove every river and he correctly calls when ahead and folds when behind, I’m still going to show a profit triple barreling those hands. If I sometimes decide correctly not to bluff a river that improves him (I know that AKQJ are all potential danger cards for me) or he sometimes makes a wrong river decision, then my profit goes up.
“If I barrel all blank turns and shove every river and he correctly calls when ahead and folds when behind, I’m still going to show a profit triple barreling those hands.”
Surely you didn’t mean this. Do you mean if he calls when he improves?
Yeah, that’s what I meant.