Q:I love the podcast. I especially like the strategy segments that look at situations that recur fairly frequently, and have you guys discuss to death the various possibilities, and what factors can push the decision one way or another.
I have a hand that I played last night that might generate a little discussion along those lines.
The setting:
1/1 NLHE home game. This game goes several nights a week, so it is more like a private club, and less like a typical home game. The player pool is larger than a home game, but since you need to “know someone”, far less than a casino. It tends to play large and loose compared to what you might expect from a 1/1 game.
Hero starts with $120. Most of the table has $100+.
UTG limps
Hero, UTG+1, raises to $7 with AKo
Villain, UTG+2, raises to $20
Folds back to hero. Hero…?
Notes:
$7 is a fairly standard raise for this table. $3-$4 can get an 8 way pot. $7ish usually 3-5.
Villain started the hand with $6-700. He’s been on a pretty good heater, including stacking hero a few hands ago (AK vs AQ on A-high board. Hero led the betting the whole way with AQ).
3 betting is fairly rare. Villain fits the mold. Villain has 3-bet a few times in the past few hands, but has only shown strong hands. He’s probably viewed as somewhere between solid and nitty.
The question is, how does hero keep this profitable? If we give Villain a range of AA-TT,AK-AJ, AK is 55%. If we fold out AJ, it’s down to 51%. If we fold out AQ, it’s 40%. So, there’s the problem. Villain is playing a tight range, and if we fold out the few hands that we dominate, we get a lot of money in bad. It seems like anything that threatens stacks preflop is probably in that boat.
So, how can we play it? Shoving is then wrong. It looks like even a “normal” 4-bet is probably wrong, because it puts SPR at Do we call, check call down on almost any board, and hope for the best?
Is there room for a min-4-bet to 35 or so? That puts SPR just over 1. What are we hoping for? That villain will shove AQ, or call, and then stack off with it? He probably calls, but may not stack off with it on boards other than Q-high.
This clearly illustrates that playing out of position sucks. But, how do we make the best of it?
A: Your instincts and reasoning here are dead on – 4betting AK is no good because of the effect it will have on Villain’s range. You go from being a small favorite to a big dog and put a lot of money into the pot in the process. As you say, folding would also be a mistake, so you (or Villain, in this case) are just going to have to call and play poker.
That may not be as simple as just blindly checking and calling down. But you already have a pretty good idea of Villain’s range, and you can narrow that further based on his action post-flop. You can think about which hands he would bet on which boards and how much equity you expect to have against those hands. If you aren’t confident in your ability to figure out your opponent’s ranges with great accuracy, you might also want to think about other hands with which you’d also call this 3bet and how AK compares to the rest of your range on various board textures.
For instance, if you would only call here with AK and pocket pairs 77 – JJ (assuming you wouldn’t have raised 66 in the first place), then AK is probably about the middle of your range on a J92 flop. Believe it or not, you’ll actually do better calling here with AK than with 88 or 77. Once you call a flop bet, however, AK will become the bottom of your range unless an A or a K turns, so you’d probably end up folding it to further betting.
Sorry again for the long delay, thanks for writing, and hope you find this helpful!
Andrew
The problem I have is when calling the flop bet with AK on J92, I dont know what to do on when a Q or T turns. I usually check raise and then shut down river when I miss. I end up feeling spewy and wishing I’d just folded the flop.
Also, I tend to check call down when the board pairs since I now have the nut no pair. Play aggro without the nuts is a rabbit hole that I cant seem to find the bottom of once I get started down that route.
I don’t think just folding the flop would be terrible. Put Villain on a range and look at your equity. Err on the side of folding since you’re out of position and facing some reverse implied odds.
I agree. Especially in a 3bet pot. This is not the best board for c-betting yet he chose to do so anyway. I prefer folding flop, but if I were to call flop it wouldnt make since to me to do it in the hopes of catching an A or K (which may not even be good when I do).
For that reason, I think I would be forced to add in a few bluffs as well. Two overs and a gutshot doesn’t seem like the worst hand to add to a check raising range since I am going to be playing that way with JJ and 99. If a Q or T comes, I can see some people folding AK to this and almost everyone folding there Axs that didnt turn a flush draw.
But when they dont, I either rep a scary river card or I give up after putting 5 bets into the pot. Folding flop sounds so much better to me.
If fact now that I think about it, I usually limp-3bet pre in this spot with a range of AKo and JJ-QQ. This does nicely if they just call my 3bet with a similar range which seems to be the case most times. If they deviate, then I will add or remove some combos to make the math work out.
What hands do you think he’s betting twice and folding to your checkraise? I’m fine folding even when I turn a gutter.
How is Hero viewed by V? Does V open his 3-bet range against Hero when in position? Does Hero open/fold on a ‘regular’ basis? If game plays ‘big’ then V will know that Hero’s stack is in play since it’s so short … does this open or narrow V range?
Agreed you really can’t raise without playing for stacks or folding PF or certainly on the Flop … so this is a good spot to flat and ‘play poker’. Your image and history will determine if you can donk the Flop if A or K hit the board (or don’t).
These are what I call ‘set up’ hands. They are the hands you ‘have’ to play against certain V so you can set up for a larger pot later on. Better off to just smooth here and play a small pot, whether win or lose, and leave the AK all-in stuff to the tournament TV hands we so love to watch!! GL