Only six comments on this week’s What’s Your Plan? – did I confuse everyone by posting it on Tuesday? That said, they were all very high-quality comments, so thanks to those who participated.
Pre-Flop Planning
“Which” makes the very good point that we ought to have a good idea of how we’ll proceed on a flop like this before we put any money in pre-flop. I’d say there are three possible sources of profit from playing this hand:
1. Flop one good pair and play no more than a medium-sized pot with it. That caveat is very important. If you’re going to feel obliged to put multiple bets into the pot any time you flop top pair, you should probably fold pre-flop. You should also work on that. When you’re getting a great price to see the flop, you can afford to be picky, and in fact if you’re going to play easily dominated hands, you can’t afford not to be picky.
2. Make a monster hand and play a big pot with it. This won’t happen enough to warrant playing for this sort of value alone, which is the reason I wouldn’t call with a hand like 53o.
3. Take advantage of a profitable bluffing opportunity that presents itself. Again, this is just icing on the cake – most of the value in playing the hand comes from (1), but it’s important to emphasize that when you’re getting 5:1 pre-flop, you don’t need a ton of post-flop value to justify playing your hand.
The other job we need to do pre-flop is think about the Villains’ ranges. The thing to know about a lot of tournament grinders is that they tend not to play a lot of pots before the antes kick in. At this stage of the tournament they are mostly just looking to make big hands, and the stats of these players from the first hour of the tournament are consistent with that.
It seems like Villain 1 is capable of opening up his game a bit from steal positions, but in middle position I expect him to be weighted towards cards with the potential to flop very big. This is 13% of hands, which seems if anything a little high: {22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo}
Villain 2 has an even narrower range which I would expect to consist only of “implied odds hands”, meaning pocket pairs and good suited connectors, and strong broadway hands that he doesn’t want to reraise – this player seems more on the passive side, so I left hands as strong as AK in his calling range. This is 9% of hands, which seems about right to me: {JJ-22,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo+}
There are two important things to take away from these ranges, and they tie back into Hero’s own preflop plan. The first is that dominated Queens are not out there, and the second is that both of these guys but V2 especially are playing with the intention of either flopping big or getting out. We shouldn’t expect a lot of post-flop jousting with marginal hands, which is why our plan is to play no more than a medium-sized pot even when we flop top pair.
Flop Action
V2’s bet is an indication that he wants to play a big pot, and that should set off alarms for Hero, since QT is crushed by his value range. There’s some chance that he’s betting for information and protection with a pocket pair and some chance he’s semi-bluffing with JT, though I think only the suited combos are in his pre-flop range (I don’t put KT or KJ in his pre-flop range at all, but even if they were, it’s optimistic to think he’s betting them). A range of {TT,33,KQs,QJs,JTs,AQo} gives him most but not all of his value hands, some but not all of his probing candidates, and all of his semi-bluffs. Hero has 34.4% equity against that range, slightly less than the 36.8% he needs, and that’s before we take into consideration the risk of the pre-flop raiser waking up with a hand.
Hero definitely can’t put any more money into the pot if V1 calls, but even if he folds, I don’t think there are a lot of good turn or river scenarios for Hero. We still have to hope to check it down from here. Even if V1 folds and V2 checks a blank turn, I don’t think Hero can bet, because we’re smashed if V2 puts any more money into the pot.
The lesson here is that when a player like V2 calls a raise, pre-antes, out of the small blind, he’s not looking to play a big pot unless he gets a very specific flop. His willingness – insistence, in fact – on getting money into the pot on the flop suggests that he got what he was looking for, and that means Hero needs to get out.
Results
PokerStars – $500+$30|100/200 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
UTG: 99.2 BB
UTG+1: 63.1 BB
UTG+2: 51.5 BB
MP: 81.96 BB
MP+1: 29 BB
CO: 35.3 BB
BTN: 37.4 BB
SB: 46.7 BB
Hero (BB): 47.31 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Td Qs
fold, fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero calls 1 BB
Flop : (6 BB, 3 players) 9d 3s Qc
SB bets 3.5 BB, fold, MP calls 3.5 BB
Turn : (13 BB, 2 players) 3c
SB checks, MP bets 9 BB, SB raises to 41.2 BB and is all-in, MP calls 32.2 BB
River : (95.4 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB shows Qh Ac (Two Pair, Queens and Threes) (Pre 28%, Flop 20%, Turn 11%)
MP shows Kh Kd (Two Pair, Kings and Threes) (Pre 72%, Flop 80%, Turn 89%)
MP wins 95.4 BB
It’s interesting how different the play is between lower and higher stakes. At lower stakes, the donk bet is more likely to have air and worse Q’s (or even 9’s) in the SB’s range and they would re-raise AQ pre.
Since I mainly look at things from a cash prespective I can see the error of my ways here when thinking of SB actions PF and Flop. But why is it that although I can see some sound tournament play here … raise to only 2bb PF by MP (perhaps looking for a 3-bet), donk bet when a ‘specific’ hand hits OOP by SB … why does this turn into a tournament life situation on the Turn?
SB has 40+ bb left (on Turn) against an opponent who easily covers AND opens the door to a check raise by betting here on the Turn. Is MP’s range so wide that TPTK is good enough times to shove over the top? Is the fact that SB ‘only’ will have a PSB left going to the River make him think that he needs to shove here?
It looks to me like some nice tournament play PF and Flop, but then turns into a cash play on the Turn. If this type of play is going to show up on the Turn then I like my thought process a bit more … call the donk Flop bet to see what MP does. Now perhaps MP doesn’t let me see a Turn if its multi-way, but if I spike 2pr on the Turn I am going to triple up here, right? Perhaps neither player goes as nuts multi-way but if there is this much value to TPTK in SB’s mind then I want to try and stick around … or is there just a ‘nuts’ switch when you are HU? GL
I think SB just straight-up played it badly, even without any consideration to tournament survival. The fact that he enabled me to get away from QT is proof of that.
It’s not worth sticking around trying to make two-pair. You’ve only got three outs to do that, and even then you aren’t guaranteed to be good, as SB could have a set.