I had a note that Villain will fight back in position in a 3-bet pot, which explains at least some of this hand. And if his range on the river is all combos of AK, 77, 99, 86s, and T8s, then this is actually a good call. In practice, I doubt he bluffs all of those whiffed draws given how strong my turn check-raise is, and I knew when I made this call that it was a money-loser. But had I actually caught him in a bluff, I would have felt like such a bad ass that I decided it was worth it.
PokerStars – $2 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 299.68 BB
Hero (SB): 210.95 BB
BB: 48.52 BB
UTG: 212.99 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 116.12 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Td Qd
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, BTN calls 5 BB
Flop : (15 BB, 2 players) 7c 9s Kh
Hero bets 9 BB, BTN calls 9 BB
Turn : (33 BB, 2 players) Ad
Hero checks, BTN bets 22 BB, Hero raises to 62 BB, BTN calls 40 BB
River : (157 BB, 2 players) 3d
Hero checks, BTN bets 76 BB, Hero calls 76 BB
BTN shows Ac Ks (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (Pre 60%, Flop 80%, Turn 91%)
Hero mucks Td Qd (High Card, Ace) (Pre 40%, Flop 20%, Turn 9%)
BTN wins 307.6 BB
I like the idea of having a “bad ass” quotient to factor into EV decisions.
There are at least 3 (probably more) combos of JT in his range as well, no? That would make this more of a call (but throw in 4 combos of A7s and A9s and it’s back toward meh country).
You know he never calls your CR on the turn with a draw with the pot odds you offered him.
Can’t he ever have Ax or Kx in his range, not to mention A7, A9, K9?
You did earn some style points for the turn CR, but this is an easy Check Fold river.
And I still think you are a Bad Ass :).
I definitely don’t disagree with either of your conclusions 😉 On a few of your other points, though:
1. I’m sure he IS calling turn with OESD if he gets that far with it. I’m representing AK+, so he can count on good implied odds if he hits.
2. He’s definitely not value betting any one-pair hands on the river. I doubt even the lesser two-pairs, though they aren’t impossible.
I see your point about his implied odds on the turn call, but he is getting only about 3-1 express pot odds to call your CR (40/117). If he had OESD, he only has 8 outs (17% needs 5-1).
Even if (A) he hits his draw AND (B) you pay him off, he can only win 5x his call due to your remaining stack size (2x his call). He makes a mistake calling with OESD because he can never be sure you are strong enough to call with a made hand (you are bluffing some of the time) or you will pay off if the draw completes.
Even if A and B are true 100% of the time, he barely (not quite) gets the right price to draw (he wins 4.9x his call).
Therefore, his EV is unchanged, but his variance increases.
That seems like bad poker to me.
Speaking of your river bluff catching attempt, you are calling about a 1/2 pot bet meaning you get 3-1 pot odds and need to be best 25% of the time to make this call (76 into a pot of 233).
Not having any experience with the Villain or the game flow, it is hard to speculate on the likelihood of (1) him calling the CR with an OESD given the implied odds discussed AND (2) bluffing when he missed.
However, I find it hard to believe that he is bluffing 25% of the time in this spot.
Respectfully,
Bad Ass in training :-)!
would this play have more value at a normal table where you get to continue to play with Villain, and thus you can recoup some of the style points in EV later?
which