My starting table was a thing of beauty, nine opponents who lay somewhere on the spectrum of weak to competent but none who seemed likely to give me tough decisions, a great example of why I wanted to play a $1K WSOP event. The table was loose and limpy and passive, but other than one check-raise bluff from the big blind into a weak bet and call, the only option I had really had for exploiting them was folding all the bad cards I was getting. There just isn’t much room to play at a ten-handed table.
Unfortunately that table broke, and the next was noticeably less good. There still weren’t any superstars there, but there were several players who had a much better idea of what they were doing.
My toughest decision came with blinds of 50/100. I had about 5500, up from the 3000 starting stack. UTG+1 opened to 250, UTG+2 called, and I called with Ah Jh on my big blind.
The flop came Ad Qh 9h. I checked, the preflop raiser bet 350, the second guy folded, and I called. I see a lot of people raise here, and I think it’s a big mistake. Even though you obviously have a very strong hand, that doesn’t mean that you want to raise. The Villain had me covered, and if we played a big pot, it wasn’t going to matter that I had top pair – I was going to need to make that flush. Better to keep the pot smaller and play it as a bluff-catcher unless my hand improved. Just because your hand is good enough to get all-in doesn’t mean that’s the best way to play it.
The turn was an offsuit 4. I checked, he bet 850, and I called. The river was an offsuit 6, I checked, and he bet 1850, nearly half of my remaining stack.
This is a nasty spot because unless I have Ah 4h or Ah 6h, I’m pretty much never going to have a better hand than AJ, which makes it an exploitable fold. At the same time, AJ is definitely a bluff-catcher, and I don’t know how often I can expect to see a bluff here. The Villain didn’t fit the stereotype of a pro – he was in his late 40s or early 50s and I hadn’t seen him before – but he handled himself pretty well at the table, so I can’t say for sure that he wouldn’t be capable of recognizing how capped my range is here. Nor can I say for sure whether he’d value bet AK. I wasn’t getting anything in the form of tells.
Finally, in part to preserve a >20 BB stack (which, again, could be evidence of expert bet sizing on his part), I laid it down. It’s definitely one I’m still questioning, though.
That 20 BB stack dwindled to a 10 BB stack without any good shoving opportunities presenting themselves. The action actually folded to me twice in late position, but I had 62o on the button and 82o on the CO and elected not to shove either (antes weren’t yet in play or else I probably would have shoved both). I felt somewhat vindicated in those decisions when I picked up AQo the next hand, but I shoved it over a raise and lost a flip to JJ to bust.
It is a painful fold, but IMO the fold is correct. Even if he’s looking to exploit you, you can take solace in the fact that he’s not probably not going to do it with many hands. If he is good enough to recognize all of that, he’s probably good enough to have a tight raising range UTG, which means he’ll have plenty of value hands, and that lots of the hands that are worse than yours have showdown value / would have controlled the pot somewhere.
Also, of course, the reasons he might be bluffing you double as reasons for him to be making a strong value-bet if he has AK.
That’s not airtight reasoning, of course (there can be less incentive to control three-handed pots), but I do think it makes a painful fold less painful. NH.
You might rather bluff catch with AdTc than AhJh.
Your line looks like a straight and/or flush draw, is is possible that you underrepresented your hand so severely that he thought you had a King high missed draw or underpair?
I don’t think Andrew’s hand looks much like a naked draw: he is getting a poor price on the turn, so he would often have folded at that point. Also, he would have at least sometimes checkraised the flop with those hands.
(…also, even if Villain does believe that Andrew has K-high, how many hands will he have raised UTG with that can’t beat K-high on this board? I don’t think an underpair is plausible for Andrew; how many guys get stubborn here with 77 in a three-handed pot vs. a UTG raiser?)
Andrew, question for you :
– I totally agree with the check-calling on the flop, you don’t know much about the guy and you have real showdown equity here.
– I wonder about the turn, for sure implied odds dictate check-calling the turn but because I imagine he doesn’t have a clue of who you are :
— AQ, AK, A9, A4, 99 and 44 are in your range. I don’t include Q9 and QQ which can be a bit fancy.
— I am wondering what a turn check-raise would represent ?
The pros :
+ It’s a nasty semi-bluff that represents a good nutty range.
+ Unless you were too aggressive before you have a good chance of shutting down his own semi-bluffs and bluffs, his AK and even A9 or A4.
+ Your flush draw is concealed when you hit and you have a higher chance of getting his entire stack
+ If you win with you flush draw, people would be more fearful
The Cons :
O If he is a bad player (ie you have no fold equity), you are doomed.
O You add variance on an unsure spot.
O If it fails you can feel compelled to bet again on the River facing exactly the range you try to represent (but we guess we win against the same range since he must be less competent than you are).
What do you think ?
Luis
I tend to find myself in this position far too often, and hindsight is 20/20, but what about donk-betting the flop? It really helps define his range, and you can safely call a raise. If he just calls, we’re fairly certain now we have the best hand and it’s super easy to play pot control.
The issue I tend to have in this spot is that taking a check-call, check-call, check-call line does nothing to really tell me anything about their hand, and I always find myself in awkward situations.
If you know of any articles, or have any articles on bluff-catching, or playing OOP in general I would love to learn more about it! Thanks!
Stephen