This one comes to us via Andre Coimbra. Hero is new to the table but has the PokerStars Team Online red spade that sometimes affects how people play. He has only 25 hands worth of data on all the Villains in this hand, so keep that in mind when considering their stats, which are given in parentheses as (VPIP/PFR).
It’s a $5 MTT on PokerStars, and bllinds are 100/200/25. UTG (24/8) opens to 600 with 10K behind. UTG+2 (12/4) calls with 5500 behind. UTG+3 (10/10) shoves for 2940. Andre is next to act with Jacks and 4267 in his stack. FWIW three of the four players who haven’t acted yet also have Andre covered.
What’s your play and why? I’m going to be in Atlantic City this weekend for the Borgata Spring Poker Open, but I’ll do my best to get my thoughts up by Saturday.
I think I’m jamming but would not be surprised if this turns out to be a spot where a slight range adjustment makes this go from a marginal shove to a marginal fold. I think, based on this being a $5 MTT, the 3-bettor having a shove-stack (15bb), and our hand strength are enough (barely) to compensate for the fact that all of this action occurred in the first 3 seats. I’m not going to attempt a math/range analysis (it would be great if someone did) but I think you’re up against AK or a lower pair (with the dead money from the first two players (when they fold) helping to compensate for the times one of them has QQ+) often enough to merit shipping it. Also, the UTG raiser has a big stack and is thus slightly more likely to be light than a random.
I would be more inclined to consider passing on this spot if we had something closer to 30bb but with 21bb we really don’t have our full range of options open to us anyhow, so I don’t see a reason to pass on what I think is a +EV spot here.
I would also be willing to entertain the idea that we generate more fold equity by cold-calling than by shoving (against $5 opposition, I’m not sure how they would interpret it honestly) but I think that’s probably a gimmicky side point and not really going to matter.
Ugh.
Here’s my (no doubt overly simplistic) take: On the one hand, we’ve got an M of about 8, which means this may be the best hand we see for the rest of our tournament life.
On the other hand, this situation sucks. We can try and talk ourselves into thinking we’re not beat, but: a) UTG shows considerable strength with his out-of-position raise; UTG+2 just calls, which screams either low-to-mid pocket pair set-mining (22-99), or AA.
Now we get to UTG+3. He’s got an M of less than 6, so he’s in push-fold territory, but he’s obviously got *some* kind of hand. With six players yet to act, he has to know that the odds are good that he’s going to get at least one call. So what’s the worst hand he’s going to play this way? AK? AQ?
So as I work through it, the *best* case scenario looks like a a flip for our tournament life, possibly multi-way, with a hand that’s unlikely to improve. Oh, and at least two players have already acted in a way that strongly suggests hands that have us totally dominated.
It sucks to fold here, but I think I would fold.
Ok, range assignment (I go largely with mwalsh)
UTG: 66+,KQ+ (I take suited connectors out of his range, because he seems to limp in a lot, though the sample size does not really allow to take this conclusion)
UTG+2: 22-99,AA
UTG+3: 44+,AJ+
Hero: JJ
This gives us a 30 percent chance of winning the pot if both players call, 40 if UTG+2 folds and 60 if both UTG and UTG+2 fold.
Looks to me that this is more than enough to warrant a shove with 21 bb. Gotta win flips in these tourneys!
I agree with Andrew in this spot.
Even if it’s difficult to set up a range to each player, UTG’s opening range should be strong here and +1’s calling range looks like indeed low-to-mid pair (in a $5 MTT) may be a little bit more… And then +3 shoves…
So I see too much strength in this spot to shove my 21BB with JJ.
In another hand there is already 4665 chips in the pot and I could shove for 4267…
I don’t like this spot but and with this multiways spot I prefer to fold.
I’m a new poster and not an expert player FWIW:
It seems like everyone agrees that we are far enough ahead of both UTG+2 and UTG+4’s ranges that the most important information would be UTG’s range. With our limited sample size, I think it might be better to think of actual hands rather than stats. IE, we have seen him limp 3 times and raise 2 times in 25 hands (24/8). One piece of info that would be extremely helpful in this spot would be his positional awareness/sensitivity. Did all 5 played hands come from the button or cutoff? Did he limp before in early position? While this info would be far from conclusive, I feel like this is such a marginal spot that it could swing the decision. If we don’t have this info, then with Caius’s range (66+, KQ+) or wider I think it is a shove. But as we narrow his range I think we quickly approach a fold (perhaps at 88+ or 99+?). Certainly at (TT+, AQ+) it is an easy fold, and there are some players out there with this kind of range for open-raising UTG in this spot.
I think the key element that is missing from Andre’s stats is what he remembers from the UTG+3’s previous raises (10/10). Has he seen him 3b shove his stack before or is this the first 3b from him? If he’s seen him 3b shove before, then he could be shoving wide (which would be right for his stack size) and from our perspective, with a range we are well ahead of. Therefore, a re-shove from us looks really strong given that we aren’t so short to feel pressured to get it in. That means that we are likely to get HU with UTG+3 because I expect only getting callers from AA after us and from UTG+1/2 as I don’t see how KK could even come in from behind after all the action thus far.
Now, if the 10/10 stats are only open raises, then it’s a lot more marginal. I wonder if the choice between shoving and folding comes down do how well we think we can navigate our stack after a fold. If we are comfortable with the table, and there will be spots to accumulate chips with much less risk, I would pass. If I think the only way I’ll be getting chips later are going to be coming from more flips, then gambling right now is a good spot.
I think this is a shove.
It is very hard to give precise ranges in this scenario, but roughly speaking your average UTG opener will have something close to 10% in his range and will only be calling the shove and reshove with something like JJ+ and AK. I am going to treat UTG+2 as dead money. Yes, he might be slowplaying AA, but his calling range is going to include a ton of stuff he will fold and in a $5 tournament there is also a chance he might also decide to call off with some random hand we crush so I’ll let that offset the chance he has AA. UTG+3 will have AK/Q in his range as well as some pairs <JJ, and there is a non zero chance he has some other hands like KQs or is channelling his inner Kevin Saul with 98s – I'd say its pretty safe to say we are at least 50% or slightly better against his range.
With all that said, it looks to me like if we shove we will be heads up with UTG+3 about 60% of the time as a slight favorite with significant dead money in the pot, and the other 40% we will be in a 3 way pot with UTG and UTG+3 with close to about 30% equity.
Its a +EV spot, so we shove
Agree with your conclusion and most of your assumptions. Am I correct that you are shipping TT+ and AK (and folding everything else)?
Maybe I’m a crazy lose player but for me it’s an almost clear shove. We are already rather short, there is a lot of money in the pot some which is very probably dead money (maybe 8bbs of dead money), we have a chance to put ourselves in a position of building a very comfortable stack (I prefer to be in a position of having a strong stack before the bubble, and in these spots, I think we cannot count too much on ICM, because making a big score is more important and being able to abuse the bubble is a crucial stage of it). I think this is a great opportunity to take the gamble.
I would like to know if UTG usually opens x3 or less. If he usually does, we don’t know what he is limping, it could be small pairs, AA, sconnectors. So we can give him a range of half of each pair until 99, 1010+ then take 1AA out of the range, and maybe as low as a8o (people have tendency to either nit it up or open much wider when chip leaders, I could see him do that (open wide) with his stats), kjo+, qjs. We don’t worry too much about utg2 who is likely dead money, very rarely AA, and sometimes will not be able to fold AQ, but that’s very rare if he just calls Aq he is probably not going to put his tournament on the line with it in this spot.
The short stack might have 77+ aj+ and kqs.
I think our line looks very strong so UTG might fold as high as aq and sometimes even Ak, he may fold QQ but I wouldn’t count on it too often. I would actually shove and write something in the chat like : ‘not AA’ hopping the other players interpretate this as AA or KK, which may result in a slightly higher fold equity in the Utg, utg2 and players next to act.
Not much has been mentioned about ‘the bubble’, ICM or other aspects of cashing here. I think it should factor into some of our decision to go along with our desire ‘to cash’ or ‘to make a run’ at this tournament. Certainly someone behind could get into the frying pan here but I dont really think that those folks should factor into our decision since we are so short stacked … frankly if we choose the play this hand we probably dont mind having a few more in here for our set mining operation, should it come to that.
Do we want to set mine? Even if all 4 players stay in the hand we really dont have the odds to set mine here mathmatically … but that doesnt mean we dont gamble in this spot either.
UTG appears to like to see Flops. This type of player would probably raise a hand OOP that they might limp with in later position since they are aware of their position … I dont think the raise narrows their opening range by that much.
UTG+2 appears tighter, but has ‘something’. Doubt he flats with AA/KK/QQ so we are looking at JJ-22, AK/AQ/AJ, maybe AXs … and hopefully is sharing cards with UTG?
UTG+3 is the one I worry about. Fairly tight so far, should know that he isnt really going to get everyone to fold in this spot so the hand has to hold some promise. I guess it is possible that he is ‘shopping’ a different neighborhood (mid-low cards) than where he thinks the raiser/caller are looking to improve from, but this just feels like AA-99,AK,AQs. If we want to put him on AX, then we now have potentially 3 players sharing cards which is very good for our hand.
Just read a note from David Williams were he indiated that Phil Ivey told him that ‘It’s ok to lay down a big hand PF in the later stages of a tournament’. My gut is telling me that someone ‘always’ winds up with QQ here somewhere. We will still have nearly 3900 when we hit the button and can see another 7 hands cheaply. How many hands have gone to the Flop since we sat down? Can we chip up with some steals rather than risk all of our chips with JJ?
We (probably) watched Bob Bounahra fold QQ in this spot when the WSOP was down to the final few (2?) tables. He wouldve hit a set and jumped to 4th in chips if played. Can we compare the situations or is a $5 tournament dynamic looser?
Another aspect will be if we can ‘break even’ playing a side pot? I suspect UTG+3 to be the strongest … can we get at least one other player to call and at least double up what we have behind the shorty? If we win a ‘triple up’ side pot, we still lose chips in the hand overall.
I am leaning more towards Fold>Call>Shove … I like the pyscho aspect of just calling here, but it doesnt help us get that side pot built PF. GL
All 3 players look strong to me. At UTG raise to 3x when a normal raise should be slightly smaller, a UTG+1 flat that creates an SPR of 2.5, and an UTG+3 shove that is giving the other 2 players a 2:1 call when he has enough chips to wait for a better spot. If hero calls or shoves the best he can hope for is isolating with TT or 99, but I don’t think it is much more likely it will be a coin flip at best (even against your average $5 MTT players). Hero is presumably the best player at the table, so why should they risk their stack in a murky situation. I fold.
5$ tourney…
Not enough info to know they have us beat.
I don’t think 3x open tells us anything at this level.
I don’t think the UTG2 call tells us UTG+2 has AA/KK often enough we need to fold.
UTG+2 might even fold QQ.
I’m not shocked to see shover show up here with like 87s.
Do we love it no.
Do we shove Yes.
20BB plus antes, plus side pot, plus fold money etc…
Kind of funny point but if this is a weekend tourney I shove easy, if it is during the week I might find a fold.
Jamming, and jamming much much wider than JJ. For a change, this is a format I am comfortable with, and I am very surprised that this can even be a question.
The point here is the greater number of people is actually better.
None of these guys individually have ranges that are even close to beating JJ.
UTG guy’s range is obviously miles behind.
UTG+2’s call (esp in a $5 tourney) tends to represent a hand that isn’t comfortable getting it in since I very much doubt unknowns in a $5 stars tourney flat QQ+ here. (12/4 seems tight, but its just 20 hands and moreover it would indicate he raises the top part of his range)
Shortstack guy is shoving 14 BB into a pot that already has around 10 BB, so even if he is tight, he is still miles behind our range.
We have a monster, a ton of chips in the pot, where a flip would be a superb result and tons of fold equity against guys behind us.
This too in a $5 tourney where people can have very weak holdings. I would consider folding even 88 here a mistake, let alone something as strong as JJ.
For me, I am getting it in and feeling good about it.
First off, I am not worried about UTG+1 whatsoever. This is a 5$ tourney, and i’d be shocked to see a player in this tournament (and with his stats) flat AA/KK here. There’s a chance he has QQ, but if he’s only flatting QQ and sees twos jams behind him he may channel his inner bounhara and find a fold. He may fold AK here too. I’d be absolutely floored to see this player have AA/KK as I agree with many who said he probably has a middle to low pp or maybe an AQ/AJs type hand.
Next, I am very confident against utg+2, the shover. He has a good re-shove sized stack and once utg+1 flats he is presented with a very appealing spot to jam a wide range. If this player also surmises that utg+1 isn’t ever capable of calling the jam, his only concern is whether anyone behind or utg has a true premium hand thats never folding. even if they do, the dead money provided by the blinds/antes and utg+1’s flat slightly improves his equity against premiums (slightly but still a move in the positive direction for him). I would actually give this guy a really wide range of all pairs, big aces, and SC’s 56+. Sure, there are still players to act behind, but with his stack and (stage of tourney, i e how many left, money bubble etc also factor in here, not sure we know that info) he’s not going to find a much more appealing re-shove opportunity than the one presented to him here. JJ crushes his range IMO.
Lastly, utg. We all know the age old utg raise = strength, however, there have been some recent shifts (I believe there was a long and interesting 2+2 thread) about how UTG has almost become the new button in terms of the steal-ability (because people give so much credit to UTG opens). Is this player employing that strategy here? Obviously we can’t know but I think its a concept that is worth bringing up. Secondly, he has the most chips with a stack >50bb. He can afford to open a little wider utg because of his stack and depending on what stage this tourney is in can also widen that opening range. While I think this player is the one we have to be most concerned about, JJ plays well against his perceived range IMO.
Another point to make is that this player has built a nice 50bb+ stack which is seemingly a “big stack” at least relative to the villains we have in this hand. Is he really going to risk 40%+ of his stack facing two jams? I see him folding hands like AQ here because he really has no reason to flip at this juncture, and definitely doesn’t have to get in a 3way aipf w/o a super premium. He might even fold QQ or AK to preserve his stack. Probably not the right move on his part given our analysis, but we’ve all seen players fold those hands preflop before in situations just like this. he has to give someone credit for either AK or a pair and I really don’t see him risking so many chips without AA or KK
To sum it up, I ship it and feel pretty good about it.