What’s Your Play? Overpair on Dry Flop Results

Thanks to everyone who commented on What’s Your Play? Overpair on Dry Flop. I realize that in some sense this isn’t a very interesting spot, because nothing out of the ordinary has happened and I’m not going to advocate some bizarre play like betting 4x pot. In another sense, though, this ought to be interesting because it comes up often and yet I think many people don’t approach it well. Getting common spots like this right consistently is more important than finding creative solutions to problems that rarely arise, even the latter is more sexy.

Start With Fundamentals

Verbal and other tells should generally be considered after you’ve assessed the fundamentals, which is to say how your hand compares to the rest of your range and also to your opponent’s range for getting to this point in the hand.

Let’s first recognize that Hero’s range for open raising the button is quite large. This isn’t quite a standard button open because I expected the BB to defend fairly often. I’m still going to open a lot of hands, but somewhat fewer than I would if I had no read on the BB, and when I do open, it’s for a larger amount. So conservatively, let’s give me 30% of the deck.

Obviously I’m not going to get a piece of this flop very often, so while it’s not impossible for me to have trips, a higher overpair, or even a full house, 99 is nevertheless near the top of my range simply because I am opening so many hands preflop that I will often hold no pair. Consequently, I should play 99 like a strong hand unless I have a very good reason not to.

As for Villain’s range, my read pre-flop was that he would call with a wide range. I’d expect him to 3-bet big pairs more often than not, so while it’s not impossible that he slowplayed something  preflop or called with an 8, we should expect that he probably has nothing.

“We’ll Have to See”

Now that we have a basic read on the situation, we can assess Villain’s behavior and see whether it should modify our thinking at all. It’s rare for a tell to be so severe that you do a complete 180 in how you assess a situation. More commonly, you might shift a bit one way or the other. So if you’re otherwise considering a close call, a strong tell might cause you to fold instead, or vice versa. But if you think you have an easy call, a slight show of strength probably wouldn’t be enough to change your mind.

Commenters’ opinions are divided on the meaning of Villian’s laugh and subsequent comment. Some agree with FaceyFace that, “The laugh seems like a sound of relief, indicating trips and above,” others with TedGreenberg who takes it to mean, “When 8s and 5s do show up I don’t have them”.

I’m inclined towards the latter interpretation, in part because of Zach Ellwood’s assertion that, “players who actually connect with the board will not want to draw attention to themselves. When someone suddenly stumbles across a super-strong hand, his natural, immediate instinct is to stay quiet and hide that information from others.” Moreover, since I was otherwise strongly inclined to believe I had the best hand, I’d have to be pretty damn sure in a read that Villain’s behavior meant strength before I modified my play.

Mwalsh also makes the good point that, ” if you are ever in a situation where a live player is doing something that you find it hard to interpret, I think you’re best served simply ignoring it and just crushing them in the range game that you are much better at. Since you have much more experience online, this sort of table talk guessing-game may be the only aspect of poker in which your opponents might have an edge on you.”

In short, this tell fails the threshold test. It’s not so clear an indicator of strength to shake my confidence in what is objectively a very strong hand, so I’m still approaching this situation as though I’m ahead and trying to protect/get value rather than pot control or bluff.

Value Targeting

If you’re a long-time blog reader or video watcher, then you know that the next thing I want to do is establish a value target. Value betting requires more than establishing that you figure to have the best hand. You also need to know what you’re trying to get value from.

What I believe is throwing a lot of people off here is that although Hero’s hand is very strong in terms of what’s possible on this flop, there aren’t a lot of clear second-best hands. Hero’s hand isn’t so strong relative to those that will be willing to put a lot more money into the pot.

Still, there are lower pocket pairs, the occasional 5, and flush and straight draws, all of which will surely be willing to call a bet. Moreover, Hero’s hand is quite vulnerable to an overcard, and a free card isn’t likely to create a strong second-best hand, so even without a good value target, this isn’t the time to slowplay. With a less vulnerable pair such as Kings or Aces, I’d want to check not for fear of trips but because I think, especially given his behavior, Villain probably has nothing at all and I’d want to give him a chance to bluff or make a little something.

Bet Sizing

With 9s, though, I can’t expect to beat most of the “somethings” he could make, so I ought to bet. The next question is how much.

Alan Bostick asks, “How big have your flop c-bets been in previous pots you’ve taken down?” They’ve generally been in the neighborhood of half the pot, but I don’t think it’s terribly relevant here. Even though it’s still a c-bet, this shouldn’t necessarily be treated as the same situation as any other time that I’ve bet. Both my and Villain’s position at the table and the board texture are relevant factors that should influence my bet sizing even if I were trying to play a balanced game.

The more confident I am in my read that Villain is weak, the less inclined I am even to try to play a balanced game. In position on a very dry flop against a weak range, my c-betting size is generally small, in the neighborhood of half pot or even a little less. Because I think Villain has nothing, I’m inclined to go even smaller just to induce a loose call from Ace- high or two overcards. It’s too early to say for sure, but I’d probably look to bet small again on many turns, then check back the river.

Although I don’t expect to be check-raised often, I’m still not inclined to fold immediately unless I get a physical tell of strength. My plan would be to call once and fold to further betting on almost any turn, but pocket 9s just seems too strong to give up to any reasonably sized check-raise. If I bet small, that might also help to weaken Villain check-raising range a bit by inducing either to bluff or to raise a weak made hand for protection.

Results

I bet $10, which if anything is still perhaps a little big – $8 seems better to me now – and Villain folded instantly.