I haven’t posted in a while so I figured I’d go ahead and put up an early WYP.
Villain is a regular but for whatever reason we don’t have a lot of experience playing together. From what little I’ve seen he seems to be mostly loose-passive in small pots but capable of getting a little more tight-aggressive (as opposed to tight-passive like a lot of the middle-aged regulars) when the pot gets large. He limp-calls often but rarely raises pre-flop. The game is $5/$5 NLHE, Villain has about $700, Hero covers.
Villain opens for $20 UTG+1, MP calls $20, BTN calls $20, SB folds, Hero calls $15 more with Ks Ts.
Flop ($80 in pot) Kd Qs Th. Hero checks, Villain quickly bets $100, other two fold, Hero calls.
Turn ($280 in pot) 5h. Both check.
River ($280 in pot) 9d. Hero bets $100 without too much delay, and when Villain doesn’t act immediatley, Hero turns to transact business with a waitress. When he looks back thirty seconds later, Villain has raised to $225.
What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts and opinions here, and I’ll be back on Friday with my own as well as the results. Fair warning: I’m on vacation this week so I may not respond to comments before Friday.
On the face of it, it’s a fold since any rational value hand that beats you would have bet the blank turn. If you don’t fold it’s because you think he’s betting a weird hand for value (so you need a read that he does this) or he’s doing a weird bluff.
If you think he’s doing a weird bluff then you have to balance this against the possibility he has played it this way with his KJ, QJ JT hands. If you are sure he limps these pre then maybe call. But honestly absent of a specific read that he playing weird, this is a fold. I mean he wants to get called doesn’t he?
Close your eyes and click a button.
I think it’s one of those meh spots. On the one hand, he shouldn’t be bluffing with any sort of frequency, since you have Jx very often here. On the other hand, you’re getting great odds and you’re close to the top of your range, so calling can’t be particularly bad.
The only really interesting move is shoving:
1. his range practically doesn’t contain AJ (both because he checked behind OTT and because he raised too small OTR: he should expect you to call a larger raise when you have Jx)
2. your range can contain AJ (which you meant to c/r OTT and are now trying to suck some value from weak hands)
3. we know he has a fold button.
Thus, we expect him to fold Jx a non-negligible fraction of the time, and to fold anything weaker than that almost all the time (he would have weaker stuff than that since he’s aggressive in bigger pots, so he might be bluffing here). We need him to fold around 45% of the time for shoving to be +EV, and I think he probably folds at least this often.
I don’t play live much, and I usually wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger here without looking at HUD stats that make me feel warm and cozy, but I think the most +EV move is probably shoving, although I’m fine with calling or folding too.
Why is Hero not check-raising the flop? Villain is def not folding his 1-pair or 1pair+openenders on the flop. So, def get value from worse. Also, if he completely whiffed the flop (say an underpair like 99), then you are not gonna get any more bets from him given the board.
Why check/call the flop?
I don’t know that KT has great equity against this Villain’s range for raising in early position and then betting more than pot into three players on this flop. In other words, I’m not eager to put more money than I have to into the pot. Also if we were to check-raise, how do you proceed on a blank turn? Betting or check-calling is going to get your stack in the pot against every hand better than yours, but check-folding may result in folding the best hand.
We are only getting 4:1 on a river call here, which means we have to be good 20% of the time.
We aren’t close to the top of our range. Villain is unlikely to ever bluff raise a pair he overbet flop with on the river, like say, KJ. Villain can have JX, Hero can have JX. Fold.
This is a really interesting spot. I like eldodo’s analysis. I agree that he will basically never have AJ given the turn/river combination.
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is that, based on your description of villain, JJ is probably the most likely way for him to have a jack (AJ would have been first assuming you think he will raise AJo from UTG+1 but most players with this profile will not. In fact he might not even raise AJs all the time. I also think that JJ fits his post flop play perfectly.
The reason I mention this is that it reduces the weight given to eldodo’s point 3 (that he will fold Jx some of the time), given that he will have 2 jacks, making it less likely that you have one.
The other tension in this hand is that you both made small bets on the river. Normally, live, I never see a bluff based on his raise size, so I guess you have to ask if he’s smart enough to run a bluff here. I really don’t think it’s likely.
Cliff notes: raise or fold; and I would probably fold because I think he has JJ and is not folding.
FWIW, and in response to others, I agree with not c/r this flop because you would be over-repping your hand. I think check-call is ok, if followed by a lead on the turn. You are probably not c/r the turn for similar reasons, so why not lead? I suppose a check-call on the turn also makes sense, especially if you think he continues to (semi)bluff or value bet too thinly. Were you check folding to a bit bet OTT because of predictable tendencies from this villain? OTR I think that you are going for too thin of value based on his pf range. You hoping for AA to call? Or was this an attempt to get better hands, like sets, to fold? I just don’t like the bet size given your hand vs. his range.
You make a great point about his most likely hand being JJ and that this hand has blockers to our repped AJ and thus much less likely to fold. I absolutely neglected to think about that. Of course, the less likely he is to fold Jx the less good our river shove becomes. I’m not sure how much of a difference it makes, but that’s certainly one more point against shoving.
Whether he is in LP or TA mode he would have a tight raising range UTG+1. Maybe a high pair or suited broadway. His over bet flop cbet suggest either 2P+ or pair+draw, maybe AA . He would have bet the turn to protect his hand if he had 2p+
Whether he is in LP or TA mode he would have a tight raising range UTG+1. Maybe a high pair or suited broadway. His over bet flop cbet suggest either 2P+ or pair+draw, maybe AA or AK. He probably would have bet the turn to protect his hand if he had 2p+, and even if he didn’t he would just call the river if he thought he might be good. I disagree with eldodo, I think checking AJ OTT if he’s trying to get tricky and either induce a bluff or get value from weaker made hands like sets and 2P. A min raise on this board from my experience is almost always a straight trying to get value from a set or two pair.
To me it look like he has AJ or JJ, with a less likely KJs, QJs, and JTs. I would fold and feel good about it. Shoving would be interesting, but I don’t expect anyone with a jack to fold nearly often enough to make it profitable.
Should we be considering donking out on the turn here, or are we going for a c/r. Donking seems better as the villain can have sets in his range here, and we get more information witout committting our stack if we donk bet.
I was going for a check-evaluate, but in all likelihood I’d be choosing between calling and folding. If Villain bombs the turn again, KT is nowhere near good enough to raise IMO and it would only be a question of how often I thought Villain would have AA/AK as opposed to hands that beat KT. I don’t think betting is helpful in acquiring that information.
Coming up with reasons as to why this guy would bluff raise you in this spot only leads me to leveling myself. Is he bluff raising because he thinks you’re bluffing because you threw out a bet and then diverted your attention? I’m going to go with no on that. So I would fold.
i know you are looking for a more interesting answer, but for me its a just a clear fold and move on to the next. obviously you have solid knowledge of this guy’s capabilities and ranges so why not just wait for a better spot than hoping he is 1.)making an unlikely bluff or 2.) capable of folding the 2nd nuts.
I’m wondering what your play would be had the river been Qd?
I keep coming back to this myself. It wasn’t a check / bet river, it was bet / raise. Villain has to know that such a small raise won’t get Hero off Jx, so there are really only two possibilities :
1. Villain has Jx or JA and is value raising.
2. Villain figures us NOT to have Jx AND thinks that such a small raise will get us off our hand.
Number 2 seems so (under 10%) unlikely, I think this is a simple fold.
without the waitress I think it is a fold.
With the waitress I think it is a call.
He might think you are too busy and will just fold to a raise without thinking.
Plus if you had a good hand (as good as you have or better) he might think you would be more interested in seeing what he does (and how he does it) in case you have a decision to make when he makes a possibly large raise.
Seems an easy fold.
Betting quickly without much thought on the flop is most likely to be a strong but non monster hand. Most people get excited and need at least a few seconds to consider how to get max value with a monster like AJ or a set here.
So, AA (6 combos), AK (8 combos) but probably not AQ or AT, and possibly KQ (8), KT (4), QT (8). Or, a J draw (KJ, QJ, TJ = 28 combos, maybe J9s?, and maybe discounted a bit due to not always raising utg+1). About as or more likely than no draw.
Turn check seems to make sense with a draw. River raise – why would he do this with one pair instead of calling? When a Jx is a big part of your range? Makes little sense. So weight range heavily toward JX, and fold.
Unfortunately being out of position sucks and forces you to check on the turn. But why not check the river? Seems like we get a larger part of his range to put money in if we check on the end.
Being out of position sucks 🙁
Its hard to imagine him bluffing enough to make even these odds worth taking. I’d expect to see a hand like A/KJ or JJ here the vast majority of the time. Fold.
seems like hero was likely behind on every street. snap fold.
I don’t want to be a douche, but the commenters here do know that poker is not a game of knowing who’s ahead, but of making the most +EV decisions, right? Even if we know for a fact that we’ve been behind on all streets, this is still not enough argumentation to justify folding (over raising). I’m sorry if I’m sounding harsh, but the whole discussion in the thread is disturbingly weak-tight. This is not to say that I’m sure that raising is better than folding, just that almost none of the recent commenters seem to even think of raising as a possible move when they “know we’re behind”.
Can you explain either a) why Villain will fold JX to a raise, or b) why Villain is unlikely to have JX?
I was talking about raising the river, not the flop.
I don’t think raising the river is burning money: I think it’s actually pretty hard for villain to call with a naked J there: from villain’s point of view, our play doesn’t seem particularly consistent with a bluff. How often do we really get to the river here, bet small, and then bluff-shove? I mean, Andrew will probably do this reasonably often, but villain’s doesn’t know Andrew too well, and this is a pretty weird play for even a reggish live poker player, I suspect. So villain, who Andrew described as tight-aggressive in big pots, should be putting us on a range of mostly J’s and AJ’s. It’s not even clear how often villain thinks we’re shoving here with a naked J, so from villain’s POV I’d say this looks close to a fold if he holds a J, and definitely a fold if he holds weaker.
Again, I’m not sure shoving river is actually +EV, I’m just claiming that it’s at least close and merits attention, and I feel that those who dismiss it as “burning money” are displaying weak tendencies. I could definitely be wrong, of course.
Raising when? On the flop or on the river. 3 betting the river here is akin to burning money.
I’m with Michael. Not sure when you’re thinking of raising. Opponent (who rarely raises pre) has cbet for $100 into $80. If we are behind (very possible given this opponent description and flop bet) we are waaaay behind. Our hand does pretty poorly against his range of hands that would call/3b a flop check raise. We can only really get value from AA/AK or maybe JJ and he’s obviously never folding hands that beat us. If he 3bets flop we are in real bad shape. the river is a clear bet-fold IMO. Is he really min-raising river without a hand that beats us? and is he really going to consider a fold if we jam with that same hand range? keep in mind half his stack is already in the middle as well (20+100+225). even w/o a J he may make a crying call with any of the two pair/sets that beat us as well. Maybe with deeper stacks and a better opponent that would be a viable play, but not against this guy, from the info given.
these hands are to expand our thinking and arsenal of moves in complicated situations, but not to overthink them. Sometimes the simplest answer is indeed the right one. This hand illustrates a nice river lead from Andrew, but imo is a clear fold once this opponent raises.
I see some contradictions here that actually might make this player a profitable one? He is LP in small pots but doesnt open them? That seems strange but might be a way to see a lot of Flops cheaper … which would extend your session if you arent hitting your cards. This would make him more of a ‘card’ player than a ‘poker’ player. He is TA in large pots (what is a large pot in 5/5 – Is this a large pot?) so that ties into his lack of opening pots (tight).
I quickly put his hand at JJ, QQ or AK (I think the opening raise is slightly higher in early position with AA or KK) with the ‘go-away’ bet on the Flop. Once Hero calls he contradicts the aggressive part of ‘large’ pot play on the Turn. This to me means JJ or AK more than anything since I think QQ puts money in the pot here more often than not.
I understand the ‘no additional information gained’ by Hero not betting the Turn, but I think it would have put us in a nice check/call mode on River unless we boat up. It also makes the River bluffing (if that is even in his game) aspect of the hand smaller IMO.
Without some prior knowledge I really dont see him ‘bluffing’ with AK here and if he sees Hero Turn play as passive (non protective, non drawing) then he certainly should feel fine about QQ and definitely fine with JJ. He knows he very well ‘should’ be called here and thus raises smaller since there are still some hands that he can lose to. I think both Turn check and small raise plays against the TA tag IMO.
I think you should fold or consider a re-raise … you will be called by JJ (bad), but maybe not QQ and certainly not AK or other 2 pair (unlikely) hands. His opening range is so small that we are walking a mine feild here and need to go with a gut feeling that is unavailable to us. I will be somewhat stunned to see AJ or 1010 here. Does he have enough in him to call a River 3-bet without the nuts? That is the question, right?
This river bet represents a hand stronger than yours from a straightforward player. However, could he view your bet as a weak steal attempt and be either bluff-raising or thinking he’s value raising with something like AA or AK? If this is the case 20% of the time or greater than it’s worth it to call. The main thing to figure out is the overpot bet then the check on the turn. Would he check a set or a straight? I don’t think he’d check the straight (worried about giving sets and flush draws free card), but maybe he’d check a set some of the time if he’s worried about Hero having a straight and doesn’t want to get it all-in on the turn. But the line also seems consistent with AK or AA’s. I think we are good enough of the time here that I call.
I assume y try to get value on river from ak, aa, type of hands which apparently are not going to bet. His turn checking range cocsists of pair+draw type of hands which is not inline with the assumption of a strong hands we originated based on flop action. His hands on river:
1. Monster like AJ, set that slowplay turn
2. AA, AK that went for pot control, ak with draw
3. Weaker pair+draw hands
I agree that his hand look a lot like aa, ak on river and i like your lead. Risk of a sizing is that it induced a raise. I might bet a bit bigger and fold to a raise.
T