The Game: $1/$3/$6 no-limit hold ’em. Plays loose-passive pre-flop but gets progressively more tight-passive as pots get larger.
Villain 1 ($1800): Best of the regulars in this Hero’s opinion. He’s 30ish, seems comfortable playing 200+ BB pots when it’s warranted, capable of bluffing, calling down, and folding in spots most others in the game wouldn’t think twice about. Suspects (rightly) that I gun for him sometimes because he’s also capable of folds that others are not.
Hero ($2300): Perceived as recklessly, annoyingly aggressive by the game at large, less so by the Villains in this hand. I think they at least understand why I play the way I do and don’t resent that I raise so much, etc.
Villain 2 ($383): Mid-60s, generally very tight but was caught earlier in the evening in a good-sized bluff. Believes strongly in protecting his big pairs, getting people to fold their draws, etc. I try not to talk about poker or my own background at the table, have never mentioned internet poker, etc. but this guy is always trying to ask me about it.
Pre-Flop: Three players limp, Villain 1 completes for $5 from SB, Hero completes $3 with 6s 5c, Villain 2 checks.
Flop ($27 in pot): 2d 3d 4c Villain 1 bets $20, Hero raises to $70, Villain 2 practically beats me into the pot with a cold call. The limpers all fold, and Villain 1 calls without any deliberation.
Turn ($235 in pot): 2d 3d 4c 4h Villain 1 checks, Hero???
What’s your play now and why? If you bet, what’s your plan if one or both players raise? If you check, what’s your plan if Villain 2 bets (be sure to consider scenarios where Villain 1 folds and where he does not)? Don’t worry too much about planning for the river, I think there are too many possibilities to delve much into that conversation.
I’ll post results and my own thoughts on Friday.
This is an ugly spot, and maybe I’m losing a ton of value, but, at 300bb deep, in my head this would be a clear check and evaluate. Whether villain 2 checks or bets after, the hand becomes much easier to read and play, even if we’re giving flush draws a free river (in the event of a check). If Villain 2 bets/shoves and Villain 1 folds, I think we can shove/call fairly comfortably given that Villain 2 could easily have bare trips and he sounds like the type that wouldn’t think twice about making a stand to protect that hand. If Villain 2 shoves and Villain 1 calls, I think we have to crying fold. You could be up against trips vs trips, but given that your check would have as good as stated you don’t have the boat (and a call from Villain 1 would suggest his hand has great equity against at least trips), it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest your negative implied odds are in the toilet.
That’s a terrible card. I would check planning to fold to a bet from Villain 2, who I think is checking most of the hands you beat.
If V2 is the protective sort, he would at least have thought about raising with a hand like TT, which he probably would have raised preflop anyway. He probably would have folded one pair to a bet and a raise, and two pair or better on the flop is (mostly) hands that beat you now. The ones that don’t will check.
So, I’d check and fold to a bet and a call unless the sizing is very small; I’d probably also fold to a bet and a fold.
Another feature of this situation is that V1 recognizes that although you are aggressive your raise here often means a good hand and that V2’s call really means something. He is not throwing another $50 into the pot just because he mistakenly thinks he has excellent odds to continue. He might reasonably check a very strong hand on the turn.
OK, haven’t thought this through entirely, but I’m willing to possibly embarrass myself by posting this. Thanks for the fun hand.
I think that the fact that both villains didn’t think much at all before calling makes me much more comfortable with my hand. I think both villains would have at least put some thought into raising on a board texture like this with a set, 43, or 42.
I’m betting with the intention of getting it in vs villain two. I would probably call and play a river vs villain 1 if he were to raise. I just don’t see either villain ever having a monster here.
There are too many possible hands for both villains that you are ahead of, many which having decent equity against you and which won’t go away to not value bet here. I think I am going to lead 150 and call if raised, only folding if it was raise by V2 and re-raise by V1. $150 is a good size as it leverages V2’s stack and reopens the betting should he push – I don’t mind at all playing for his entire stack, and if he pushes, which he should if he is going to play the pot, it then leverages V1s stack, making 150 a pretty effective size. Should V1 fold and V2 raise, I will look to call and see the river card in position. Should V1 fold and V2 call we can head to the river feeling pretty good about things.
What would you expect V1 to have if he check-raises after V2 folds?
I think I said that wrong, obv I meant if V2 folds and V1 raises… anyway… I think it was probably clear what I meant.
So, to answer your question, if V1 c/rs us I’m not super happy, but I don’t think we can rule out 4x, A5, possibly a FD or combo draw with 5dXd. It is not completely unrealistic that he has at least a few bluffs in his range either. Obviously he could have the FH that his raise is really representing, but at this point I’m not prepared to give him that much credit, both due to our history and his description, as well as the other combos that I mentioned which I think are pretty reasonable. So I look to call and see the river.
If we check and V2 bets, I feel like V1 won’t c/r bluff very often, therefore we can fold if he c/r I think. If V1 calls I think It’s a really tough spot because calling can potentially miss a lot of value, and taking the c/r, fold to a 3bet line may really over-rep our hand, not to mention make the river really tough to play if V1 calls turn and donks riv. If V2 bets and V1 folds, I would just get in, he’s got some four’s in his range.
I would rather just bet ~$170 and get it in with V2. If V1 raises regardless of whether V2 calls, folds, or shoves, I think we have to fold.
I find it a little difficult to believe that either villain would just flat after your raise to $70 if they had a set. They may do with two pair, but they’d surely think a while before doing so. Ditto with a set, the flat call is of course possible, but it seems like something they’d have to think about for a bit before deciding not to raise. The fact that they both more or less insta-called makes me more inclined to put them on good draws (AdXd, for example) and pair+draw hands like 4-5, A-4 (particularly if suited in diamonds).
In my live experience, a very quick call more often than not means a very good draw. People with made monsters generally take longer to act – both because they want to figure out how to extract value (or in some cases, perhaps such as this one, because they need to figure out if they’re good) and also because they don’t want to give off obvious strength by beating you into the pot when you re-raise.
So I’d be very surprised if you don’t still have the best hand here, and thus I’m betting this for value every time. Happily playing for stacks with Villain 2 and don’t think I’d feel too unhappy about playing for stacks with Villain 1 either.
The key here is that they both call your reraise on the flop without much thinking. A call is most likely with either a flushdraw or a pair with a straight draw. Two pair, Sets and straights would all warrant thinking about a raise. Top pair hands would warrant thinking about a fold.
V1 should have some sort of starting hand (he had to complete for 5), so his range after his flop call is something like 55, 66, 45s, 34s, A4, Axdd and all kind of suited paint and connectors of diamonds.
V2 got a free flop, so he could have anything. His ‘beating into the pot’ suggests a similar range as V1 though, adding all other flush cards, all 4s, all 5s.
So if we consider two pair and sets unlikely, we should bet for value on the turn. $150 seems about right. We’re happy to get it in with V2.
A raise from V1 would be scary though, it is a dangerous bluff spot for him, since we could easily have a boat, so if he raises we probably have to fold.
Let’s assume you think enough of V1 to think about your whole range. You were at the top of your flop raising range on the flop and now you are at the bottom of your flop raising range on this turn, which is to say, you can have any set given preflop and 43 and 42. So those would all be raises I would have to think given V1’s lead, the board texture, and the players behind. So now I think A5 and 56, the bottom of your range again, make natural bet/folds for value versus V1.
Recognizing that V1 is going to have a tight leading range but all of it should continue when your raise is not huge (I like 90 on the flop fwiw) and V2 cold calls to give him good pot odds for a bet/call and he should never be drawing dead. So V1 can get away from 23 here and then check-call 45 for example or 4Xdd or AXdd. So I think actually we have an uncapped range on this turn and a natural bet/fold for value against V1 and we have a very clear bet/call for value against V2. So with that in mind I would bet 150, V2 can call or shove and things can be left to V1.
If V2 shoves and V1 cold calls, I would still call. Then we can play the river card in position and we have a good idea of which river cards are bad for us. Pretty much any lead by V1 will result in a fold from me on any card, in reality. Again, our range is uncapped and we have poured a ton of money into the pot. It is not as if V1 could bluff a diamond river.
If V2 shoves and V1 reopens the action then I think we can fold.
The reason for 150 is we can still reopen the action when V2 shoves, but can’t if we bet 175. This should strike an appropriate amount of fear into V1, such that, they don’t raise over a V2 shove with a range we can continue in the pot with.
“…we have a very clear bet/call for value against V2.”
I disagree with that.
But your post is really smart and makes me think that I was totally ignoring what might be most important–i.e., the amount of money that V1 has behind. Well, it’s been a while since I embarrassed myself in public. Once again it looks to me like you’re assuming that nobody who Andrew doesn’t go out of his way to compliment will call with anything in any position on any street. And once again I could probably learn something from that approach.
V2 has the bottom ninety-five percent of preflop hands going to the flop. And on the turn he has 310 behind in a pot of 235 and he can certainly have Q8dd and any 4x including but not limited to T4o. He can also have hands like 59, 55, 52…. 66-88. some Ax. He is generally very tight but this is a spot where he is going to stack off, especially against Andrew, with a poor range given the range he checks in the BB. Also, I think player’s like this have a high frequency of losing their minds in this spot. Like he’s not constricting his range for multiway viewing of the flop or turn, etc etc. Just a spot where players of this description have none of the tools to play it well and as a consequence, will play it poorly.
Yeah, I think we just play with different guys who fit that rough description. I would expect that guy not to snapcall $70 on a 432 flop with T4 (or call at all, for that matter). I still think he folds Qd8d too.
And I think that 95o and “some Ax” are just not important parts of this guy’s range. Been a long time since I’ve seen a “very tight” 60-something who faces a bet and a raise and thinks “hey, Ace-high and a gutshot! Let’s call!” If Andrew reveals that this guy had Ax or 5x (without a pair) I’ll owe you a beer.
The beer bet is on… is it a freeroll? Again I gotta feel like guys like this in this situation do some crazy things. I can get on your boat with not an appreciable amount of Ax. 95o… I don’t know. You might even be able to sell me on that. I’m skeptical though.
But the notion that he would fold Q8dd! How is that even possible?!
Andrew also mentioned that he is “generally” very tight — not “specifically” very tight. And given Andrew is probably playing like a total maniac that description doesn’t imply the guy is playing 8/6. Finally, given that his tendency to latch onto Andrew and be in his ear, I believe that a larger portion of his calling range is going to be a “beat into the pot” range. I don’t know if these elaborations are convincing. But yeah, I would submit that this just isn’t the spot where this guy plays well at all.
A beverage of your choice is at stake…
Yes, it’s a freeroll. Good luck!
I think V2 has the full 12 combos of 43 and 42, and at least some combos of 44/33/22. Other possible hands:
(1) 55, 66;
(2) AdXd, 5dXd;
(3) XdXd;
(4) 65, A5;
(5) pair + straight draw;
(6) 5x;
The last option, the naked straight draw, is unlikely, but it happens sometimes and it’s important to remember that sometimes people are just waiting to blow up/call it off with any hand or draw.
I think that V1’s hand becomes very important here. For him to bet and call (so, (1) to bet; (2) not to fold to the raise+call; (3) not to reraise in this multiway pot) strongly suggests a draw, probably a very good one. Obviously, if he has the NFD then V2 can’t, and many V2-type players make a strong distinction between the NFD and all other flush draws.
Key questions: is V2 just snap-calling the $70 with Qd8d, Jd7d, or whatever? IMO this is doubtful, though with something like 9d5d or AdXd it is more likely. How certain can we be that V1 has a draw? What would he do with, e.g., 54?
If I were to still make a case for checking planning to fold (but believing that we will see the river for free some important fraction of the time), it would rest on the claims that (1) V1 is very likely to have a premium draw; (2) that V2 would have folded or at least paused with a naked non-nut flush draw; (3) that V2 likely would have reraised and not just called with 65 or A5; (4) that V2 will check behind with 66, 55, 54, and 64.
(FWIW I’m obviously changing my claims about V1 from my first post; I think I was just mistaken then.)
We would not like to give a free card and see a 4, a 3, or a diamond roll off. But we would also not like to bet into a range that beats us too badly, and I think that V2 has one of those–and we won’t often fold the best hand (though we will give up a fraction of the pot by giving a free card to two opponents).
Obviously what I need to do now is some math…
I don’t think either villain is capable of a bluff in this spot or would likely stay in on the flop with a gut shot or gutshot over-pair, so I think their ranges on the flop are mostly set’s, two pair, and pair with open-ended straight draw. So then it’s a question of how likely we are to be beat by one or both opponents on the turn. At the table I would think it’s about 75%. I’m inclined to check, mainly to keep position and the pot small against Villain 1. If I check and then villain 2 bets then I’ll get to see what villain 1 does first. If villain 2 bets and villain 1 calls or raises, I fold. If villain 2 bets and villain 1 folds, I’d be more inclined to call depending on bet size and table feel, but I would probably fold. His quick call on the flop makes me think he has a set, but then again the call indicates great strength and no need to protect his hand by raising (as he is keeping both players in the pot), so would he only do that with 56 also or would he do this with any set as well thinking it’s very strong (or does he not know this shows great strength and would do this with a draw)? I’m not sure on that and interested to hear other’s thoughts.
Side-comment: Andrew, is it a coincidence you are one to the right of your toughest competitor (and presumed deepest stack) in this game or did you get a seat change to get there? The topic of the seat change button might be an interesting topic for the podcast – I usually remember to ask for one when I sit down (and it came in handy when I played this past weekend), but oftentimes I forget.
I totally missed the flush draw when I first looked at this problem. After reading other’s comments, I agree that the fast call is more likely a draw given he would think longer with sets and two-pair. I think I agree with those who advocate betting 150 and calling villain 2 if he shoves (regardless of whether villain 1 calls) and folding if villain 1 re-pops it.
I assume you mean to the left? It’s a coincidence in this case, though I will try to take or move into that sort of seat given the opportunity. In a game full of weak players, my preference is generally to keep the few better players on my right rather than get position on the biggest weak player, because I think having a tougher player in position on me really hamstrings my ability to do the stuff I like to do to weaker players. With position, I can hamstring them instead.
Yeah, I meant one to the left (or he’s to your right). That strategy makes sense. Position isn’t as important against weak players. I would imagine if you have a game with a bunch of weak players and a couple good players that you guys are just going to constantly try to get on the left of each other.
Given your image, both villains may see this raise as bluffy. V1 might be bet/calling an overpair that’s capped under JJ and thinks you are check/raising a draw. V2 might actually be the one with the nut diamond draw in this case, and with his haste in calling, might actually have the wheel + nut flush draw. Even though this card is a scare card for what you perceive their ranges to be, it is also a scare card in their mind for your perceived range. I’m pretty sure I would bet 100% of my c/r range in this spot and if v1 shoved all in, I’d tank for 15 minutes and then make a call but wouldn’t be happy about it. If v2 shoved all in, I’d break my arm calling off so fast.
Always interesting when have a limp pot that goes nuts on the Flop with the blinds involved!! Going by the table description this pot should get fairly tight right about now … but Hero also indicates passive, which IMO means flat callers, folders and trappers. All of these types of hands could exist here and just need to see if we have our gambling shoes on or not.
A big factor for me here would be whether or not either V1 or V2 (or both) would have raised with a suited Ax in limp preflop action. My thoughts are that V1 very well could, but V2 would be less likely unless it was a Broadway kicker. I think anyone who is not on a flush draw here would suspect that at least one, if not both, of the others are on a flush draw as well and thus would be wiling to protect any ‘made’ hand.
Unless we are behind, we are are anywhere from 52% (A4d) to 75% to win here against combinations of 2 random hands I played with (55, 66, Ax and diamond draws) AND Hero’s opponents are likely sharing cards and outs as well. This certaily is a good thing but not an absolute as they could NOT be sharing outs which makes having both of them continue in the hand more dangerous.
Is Hero is the business of flipping for large sums of money? If you take into account the fact that we might be behind and quite a few of the combinations of hands our opponents hold can pass us by, then this might be a good spot to try for some pot control by checking to see if V2 bets out. Yes, we are giving all hands we are ahead of a potential free card, but do we want to continue to add money to a flip situation, especially when V1 can really hurt us?
If Hero bets I think we can get away with as little as $110. We can plan on folding to any large raise (or re-raise of V2 raise/shove) from V1. Or bet as much as $150 to leave open the re-raising posibilities if V1 smooth calls a V2 shove.
I agree that V1 will probably not bluff too much here, but it would be very difficult to deal with a donk/lead bet on the River after putting money in on the Turn. I would rather save my dollars for the River call than add more dollars. So I am leaning more towards checking this Turn. I see this quite a bit in tournaments .. large Flop action and checked Turns .. not sure how much of it goes on the larger cash games.
Check and call any bet smaller than shove from V2 if V1 folds.
Check and call any bet smaller than shove from V2 if V1 smooths.
Check and fold to shove from V2.
Check and fold to V2 bet and re-raise from V1.
Bet $110 to $150 and call shove from V2 if V1 folds.
Bet $110 to $150 and call shove from V2 if V1 smooths … makes River VERY difficult.
Bet $110 to $150 and ??? if V2 smooths and V1 raises to put V2 all-in … makes River EXTREMELY difficult.
Bet $215 and cross fingers that V1 doesnt have a made hand. This action may actually save us some money since a re-raise from V1 allows us to fold our hand for ‘only’ $281, not $383 and V1 is less priced in to go after any draws .. might be worth the extra chips.
I actually don’t mind that last action now that I have typed it. If V1 is marginal, he will fold out to V2 shove which we probably were going to call anyway. If they both fold we take the small win and probably missed out on some ‘flipping’ value if we hold up.
After reading a couple more times I see I leave no clear path to take here. This probably stems from my session yesterday where I won a huge percentage of my pots but ‘net’ lost due to being 5, 4, 4 and 2 outed in the 4 largest pots I played in. Players were actually sympathetic to me for how well I played (or so they said) to end up shorted. I know variance is variance, but it certainly seems the wrong end of variance rears it’s ugly head when the pots are above average sized. In 3 of the 4 pots the other player had no idea I was holding what I was holding and that is why the money went in!!
I lean more to the pot controlling check options here as it just seems that the large pots created by limped to Flops create large losses more than large wins.
great turn card. seems like a super obvious double barrel spot for value against both villains.
I’m not worried about boats yet, but I’m not sure you want to play for stacks with Villain 1. Thinking ahead, the tricky part is how to get away from the hand should you need to. I would bet here, half-pot say, and call any normal sized raise from Villain 1. If Villain 2 raises and Villain 1 folds, I would just get it in.
If Villain 1 checkraises and leads out the turn you have a decision on your hands. Maybe fold to a large confident bet, but call a small bet (say 1/3 pot).
“leads out the *river*”, I should have said.
I’m going to check. This way we get to see V2 and V1 act before we do. That’s a big advantage.
I’m not too worried about the free card. V1 will have a solid number of diamond draws but he has enough full houses and the guts to semi-bluff as well so I’m not inclined to bet/fold.
The board plus the action so far is scary enough that I’m not confident we can go for big value and be ahead.
If V2 bets and V1 folds then I think it is close. I lean towards calling hoping that V2 has enough draws and small overpairs to balance his 43, 42, 22, 33 holdings.
If V2 bets and V1 calls or raises then I think it is a fold. V1 probably shouldn’t call any substantial bet by V2 with just a diamond draw and I don’t think we’re ahead of his value calling range.