I arrived at my local card room expecting to play the usual loose-passive $1/$3/$6 game. Instead, there were two full tables of $5/$5 running with a substantial waiting list. I sat for over an hour in a $1/$3 game before a seat in the must-move game opened up. When I went over to claim it, there was the usual round of musical chairs as someone moved into the now-vacant seat for which I was headed, then someone else claimed his seat, etc. Just when things seemed to have settled down and I was about to sit, one of the regulars called out, “Ohh, wait, sorry, do you mind if I take that one? I want to be able to see the Heat game.” I obliged and bought in for $1000.
There were a lot of younger guys I didn’t recognize in the game, and while it was still decent, it was much more aggressive than usual. On my second hand at the table, I overcalled a raise with TT in the SB and flopped AQT. Everyone including the pre-flop raiser checked to an older, heavyset player I also did not recognize, who had me covered by a few hundred dollars. He potted it for 125, I called, and everyone else folded.
The turn was an offsuit 5, I checked and he quickly bet 350. I usually assume that players of his description are nitty when it comes to playing big pots, and that was bad for me. They also tend to overvalue/overprotect hands certain types of non-nut hands, though, and slowplay nutted hands in bad spots. I figured AA was very unlikely for him, and QQ and KJ could surely be in his range for seeing the flop though I wasn’t sure he would play them this way. Then there was AQ, perhaps the most likely candidate, and even AT/QT to consider, though I wasn’t sure which of those would call a raise. I shoved, he called with KJ, and I binked a 5 on the river.
A few hands later, I opened to 25 with AA in early position. I got one call, then one of the young guys three-bet to 125, then the guy who took my seat to watch the game cold 4-bet to 330 out of a stack of 1200. I figured the weakest thing I could do would be to make it 660, which could maybe give impression of leaving myself room to fold to a shove from the 3-better. The 3-better folded, but the 4-better guy shoved so fast I thought he probably had the other two Aces. He showed Ks, and in my first ten minutes at the table I was up more than 400 BBs.
The next few hours were a lot less eventful, and I lost one sizeable pot that was straddled three times, with the final $40 straddler waking up with KK, which was a lot better than my 54s. Eventually I was moved to the main game, where the Heat guy had already been seated. The game didn’t look nearly as good as the must-move, and I was getting tired anyway, so I decided just to play around to my blind and then call it a night.
On my second-to-last hand, the UTG player straddled to $10. I limped next to act with 88, there were a couple more limpers, Miami Heat completed from the BB, and the straddle raised $35 more. That’s unlikely to be a monster, and I should probably just 3-bet now. I wasn’t eager to play a big pot, though, and I also expect my implied odds with a set to be pretty good, so I just called.
Everyone else called back to Heat, who put $500 on top. The straddle tanked a bit before folding, and in that time I realized that I was going to have to shove. Nines or Tens weren’t completely out of the question for him, but his line really made no sense. Not that I was going to look terribly strong, but he might fold to a shove, and even if he didn’t we were probably flipping. I moved in for $1700 more on top of his $535, and he agonized for a bit before correctly deciding he was priced in.
The board ran out KQ7J5, and he showed J9s. I suppose losing a 1000 BB coin flip was an appropriate end to the night. I’m going to an independent regional professional wrestling match tonight, so that should make for an interesting night of a different sort…
Andrew you are 1000x the poker player I am, but “have to shove” plus 2k with pocket eights for a probable coin flip when all you have put in pot so far is 45$ and your line is also weak? Surely you or someone else reading can justify walking away from this spot and laying it down? I’m flabbergasted at this move!
Respectfully-
David
I think you mostly answered your own question. Andrew is heavily discounting premium pairs which almost certainly would have raised earlier, which leaves him either with a coin flip as you say or crushing a smaller pair. Why wouldn’t you shove if you know that? Then there’s the possibility that Villain folds, which further adds to the EV, and also the fact that a pair vs overcards isn’t actually a coin flip – the pair is ahead by several % depending on the exact cards which is not insignificant.
Sure I could walk away from it, if I were especially risk averse or under-bankrolled for the game. But then it probably wouldn’t be a good idea for me to sit down in the first place. It was a profitable spot, albeit a high variance one, and I have a bankroll for precisely this purpose.
Wow. Scary. But ignoring the variance (awesome that you can play this way), I guess the question is, can we really range this villain?
How likely are TT and 99? What are you really putting him on? All sc’s and low pairs? Plus suited A’s?
Amazing call by Villain. J9s? Weren’t TT and 99 in your range?
Easy shove as described, even though this is an unusual spot. Remember that straddled pots are like a full moon–people go crazy; they don’t simply treat it as a 5-5-10 game for that one hand.
I think an interesting follow-up is what is the lowest paired hand that Andrew would make this play with. I ask because I think that 77/66/55 is a fairly significant portion of villian’s range. I therefore feel less great about this play with 44 instead of 88, and think that I probably would have pulled the trigger with 77 and chickened out with 66. I don’t have precise math to back this up.
Also, what is the lowest non-paired hand you would call with here? This is tricky because live players often play AQ very passively preflop. I think AQ is an auto-shove here but am honestly not sure how far down in the range we should go. Curious to hear others thoughts.
the only thing arguably questionable is limping the straddle with 88. shoving there seems like an amazing spot with so, so, so much dead money in the pot. given the action as played, the line is more aptly described as “high volatility”, but certainly not “high variance”. too bad villain binked the J.
re: mwalsh
88 is probably the bottom range for back-shoving.
AQ should have opened which would have changed the dynamic and pot size of the hand.
Re: pepito
How can 88 be an “amazing spot” yet also be at the bottom of the range for back-shoving here?
As for the non-paired hand question, I agree that hero is usually raising with AQ (and any other hand that might make this move, just as he may usually raise with 88), but my assumption behind the question was that hero has a non-paired hand and has played it the same way up to this point.
AB can definitely make this play with 44 I think, re: bottom/top of range.
Whole story was an elaborate humble brag imo. Cliffs: AB rolled for $5,000 flips.
FWIW if you do the Kelly calculations, it doesn’t actually take thaaaaat much money to be rolled for 5K flips where you have a 55/45 edge. (I would guess that you are also rolled for it.)
🙂 (Because a smiley is too short, I will also say it in words: I liked this comment and found it amusing.)
The hand was j10s, not j9. Which makes a small difference bc while I was calling I said I think u have 99… Not that I knew his hand but this was a pretty clear spot where both of us were stealing. I was getting around 1.8-1 on a call which makes it a standard call even if he has ak or aq which is still unlikely. If he has Aj or a10, then nice hand here’s the money. He has a bigger pair than 99 less than 5% of the time there. It was actually more likely for me rather than him to have tens or better, being that I play with the straddler very often and know he loves building pots w average hands, regardless of his position. I found it hard to believe he flatted the $35 with a monster and decided to take a flop 7 or 8 ways, since no one was going to fold for $35 on top.. Unless hes flatting hoping for someone to squeeze. Which is a great play in an aggressive game but as andrew said thus game was Playing pretty passive. Especially bc he had the option to 3 bet and likely win right there, or play the hand heads up in position w the straddle. Still an excellent shove by him bc the straddle never has a big hand there, and I almost never do either. I’m definitely squeezing there almost every time with any 2 cards. Especially bc he is probably one of the only players at the table w the skill level/guts to put it in with 66-99, or even AQ. Most players at that game would tell me they know I’m stealing but still fold their hand. And yes he had tons of fold equity I easily have air or even ace rag there. And yes when u have a bankroll there’s nothing wrong with getting it in bring such a small favorite. You can’t make big scores by folding all day or waiting to cooler someone.
Hey Larry, thanks for commenting. Sorry I got your hand wrong – a lot of times I just guess when I don’t remember, but in this case I actually thought I remembered J9s. I was looking from all the way across the table, though, and it’s not like the kicker mattered.
I don’t have much to add to the rest of what you said – I think you’re right about the general dynamic of the game, what each of us is likely to have, why you have to call, etc. Nice hand sir.
Thanks Andrew. Didn’t know you had this blog until a few weeks ago when one of the regulars told me to check it out.. Seems very interesting and I’m looking forward to reading/commenting in the future. Good luck and see you at the casino.