This happened the same night as the first one. The $1/$3/$6 game is up and running again. There are a couple of limps, so I limp behind with 85s in the HJ. The CO limps, the BB completes, and then the $6 blind (not sure what to call that) raises to $50. Two of the limpers call, I call, and then CO moves all in for $111 total. Action back to the first raiser, who calls, and then the rest of us call.
The five of us see an A82r flop. With the CO all-in, I’m last to act. They all check to me, and I bet $150, a little over a quarter of the pot. It folds back to the player on my immediate right, who calls.
We both check a blank turn, then he bets 225 on a blank river. This guy is one of the better in the game, as best I can tell a TAG with an emphasis on the tight. He’s pretty young and seems like one of those guys who wins in a loose game just by being nitty and betting hard with good hands. I fold without too much thought.
He sheepishly turns over 53s for a busted gutshot, and the all-in player smiles and coolly turns over an unimproved 74s, quintupling his stack by showing down 7-high as the winner.
Several mistakes made by several different players enabled such a strange outcome. Which was the biggest mistake and why?
You not shoving the river.
The why? Because you would have scooped!
How does not one of these players jam it in pre themselves to iso v all-in guy?
I think it’s remarkable that none of the mistakes is really huge. Probably best not to peel with the gunshot, but the dollar value of the mistake is not huge. I would probably fold with your hand for the $50, partly because I can’t count on seeing the flop (for $50). I would like to know stack sizes.
Quite possible that the biggest mistake was made by one of the limpers when he called either the $50 or the $111 preflop. I might actually be tempted to call the river in your spot; many guys will only value-bet monsters in that spot, and wouldn’t get to the river that way with almost any monsters.
Sorry not to have answered the question! It’s tough.
This is the kind of hand I’d watch play out and have no idea what I’d just seen.
Candidates for biggest mistake?
– Those who limped, called 50, then 111, and then folded an A-high dry flop
– Initial raiser, who raised to 50, then called 111 (inviting the rest in)
– Guy on right who chases gutshot, then bluffs river
– hero, for folding the river
– cutoff for shoving
I’m going with CO. He had almost no showdown value, and no fold equity when he shoved. So, he built a big pot that he would win less than his share of with no money behind.
Second, probably hero, for folding the river. Based on your description, a bunch of weak aces made 2-pair, but his range is definitely wider. If he really had 2 pair, wouldn’t he bet the turn? Or raise the flop? Or something? It seems like “taking a stab” is a definite possibility. Like Nate says, there just aren’t that many monsters. Rivered set? That’s random.
Then, maybe gutshot guy. I don’t hate the $6 blind guys play that much.
But, like you said, the whole thing was just weird.
Actually I think CO’s pre-flop shove is quite good. What should have happened is that the raiser reraises to isolate and the two of them both get an equity bonanaza from all the dead money that we limpy fish leave behind when we fold. As long as he believes the original raiser capable of recognizing what a good spot it was, which honestly I’m surprised this particular player didn’t, then reopening the betting is exactly the right move for him.
Andrew I am not holdem 6-max player.
I believe strongly you made the biggest one for “I fold without too much thought”.
I do the same mistake too often in hu.
You created predictive model of your opponent as ” one of those guys who wins in a loose game just by being nitty and betting hard with good hands”.
This sounds for me like very standard and rigid model.
The model is very flat and one dimensional.You did not include such dimensions such as:attachment to investment,attitude toward complexity,adaptability, awareness.
I believe in his case this attributes are critical to construct robust model.
“Attachment to investment is a measure of how much he gets attached to investments he’s already made.Somebody who has a high attachment toward investment is going to have trouble folding strong hands even when the board changes;is going to pre-decide whether he’s going to bluff in spots, and is less reactive of discouraging information”-Haseeb Qureshi
I believe he made this bet in response to your loose agro image.
He did not consider all-in player because poker is very habitual mental space.
My impression is that most players suffers from weakly-connected consciousness, this appears to be natural and normal.
We only recognize it as a problem in its most extreme forms like this hand.
Great player recognize this in real time and good players after the fact .LOL
I like what Emo said about different definitions of biggest. It’s true that doing anything without much thought is a serious mistake even it proves to be the correct play. In my defense I will say the main reason I didn’t think much about it is that it’s extremely difficult for Villain to show up with hands that *need* to bluff the river, never mind whether he actually would. Only busted gutshots fit the bill, and even those aren’t terribly likely.
That said, I do think you’re right about his reasons for betting. He and others resented my bullying, and clearly he decided to bully back. In terms of equity though I’m still confident that the raiser not re-raising to isolate was a more expensive mistake than my fold, if it was a mistake at all.
Yes exactly Andrew you got my point.
This is live poker so you have high density information environment.
You should chew it more than online.(verbal and nonverbal communication)
So you will detect the burst of frustration and fear and his blind aggression.
The hand outcome is extremely revealing but overall small mistakes are ordinary and common.
I think the guy with 53s who limped then called 50$(mistake) especially knowing the cutoff only had 110$ total and was still in the pot.
Not quite as good a spot for him as it was for me, but I still don’t mind this much. See my comments above about why I think my call is OK.
I should probably save this for my own blog, but I think “biggest mistake” is kind of ambiguous. There are (at least) two ways in which I quantify mistakes: the obvious [but tough to calculate] way (how much $EV did my decision cost me?); and the EMO MELTDOWN way (how fucking stupid do I feel for choosing one play over the other i mean HOW COULD I BE SUCH A FUCKING MORON!?!?!?). But yeah, the latter is a measure of regret, which is more correlated with how easily I could envision myself making the “right” play, rather than how many Sklansky bux I lost.
Anyway, I think the straddle not isolating is pretty rotten, perhaps the biggest mistake by metric #2. Unless I was extremely deepstacked I’d be pillorying myself for not putting in a reraise here. The $111 all-in should reopen the action, so surely getting it in (or perhaps folding, if he was squeezing air; this obviously depends on stack depth as well) and capitalizing on the oodles of dead money out there is way better than calling and acting first in a 5-way protected pot.
Given your reads, folding river seems fine. Pretty unlucky you ran into the extremely rare instance where a TAG risks $225 to win $300 with the nut low. Or maybe he’s just colluding with the 7-hi guy.
“Or maybe he’s just colluding with the 7-hi guy.”-I love this scenario.
It’s important to consider the possibility, but I’m not worried that that was the case here. These guys would have had to have been both unlikely friends and extremely good actors.
The original raiser for not shoving over the cut-off all-in; he could have isolated with all that dead money in the pot.
WINNAR! I never saw his hand, but it doesn’t matter what he had. Re-raising to isolate is simply mandatory here, and he’s costing both himself and the all-in player boatloads in equity by not doing it. No one else has a hand good enough to stand his four-bet ever, so this extremely profitable race is his for the taking.
He must have been making a play with a suited connector or medium pocket pair, then when the other guy re-popped it, he probably thought “I don’t stand a chance against his (assumed) QQ-AA that he limp re-raised, so I should just call so I can have implied odds against everyone else” – wrong way to think about it because pot equity dominates, but this is my best guess at his reasoning.
Also, when you do this kind of post in the future, you need a title for it, like “Who’s the biggest moron?”
The biggest mistake is clearly for author to call a raise with 85s and a bunch of players in the pot. Folks do not get distracted by the weird outcome. The “big” mistake was entering this pot 🙂
Stacks were actually reasonably deep except for the guy behind me, and believe it or not it was far from a lock that he was going to shove (even though I do think that’s the right play for him when the action), and in the event that he does just call I’ve got more or less the best position considering that he’ll be short enough postflop to be a nonfactor. Everyone is going to play extremely straightforwardly (again results notwithstanding I still think this is largely true) and only the preflop raiser has any hope of holding a premium hand so it’s not like I’m a huge equity dog. This is a small mistake at worst.
Even having position does not overcome starting hand inferiority. Nominally, sure you may have something like 30% equity against 1-2 random hands. But that is presumed on the hand running to completion. With 5 players you are likely to be blown out of the hand before river.
I am only interested in your justification of calling a raise preflop. Immediate odds are not enough. Since your stealing chances with 5 players are so low. The call here seems frisky at best. In the very best scenario where you make a baby flush you are not going to make much money. Everyone would be afraid when board is suited.
“Even having position does not overcome starting hand inferiority.”
That’s exactly what it does! Well, mitigates it, anyway. If I’m in position in a scenario where people are likely to play straightforwardly (multiway pot, dry sidepot, passive opponents), it’s very likely that I will realize at least my hot-and-cold equity vs their ranges if not a little more owing to my superior skill and position. This may sound a little silly given what happened in the hand, but really it’s quite unlikely I get bluffed off the best hand when I have it. Likewise any time I have appreciable drawing equity.
The guy on your immediate right, since he was playing the board, bluffed 225 to win the 150 that was in the side pot. If he had any chance of winning the main pot then his bet would be fine, but given the main pot size the vast majority of the time he would be throwing away $225. Not the biggest mistake, but definitely -EV.
Actually there was 300 in the sidepot, and whether or not he realized this, I’m extremely unlikely to have a good hand after taking this line (stab at flop in dry sidepot, then check back turn). I’m not wild about his call, but I like his bluff – just didn’t think he had it in him.
Hahaha I heard about this hand too. I had no idea you were involved though obviously
What a mess of a hand .. $550 bingo!!
Agreed – 4-bet by $6 blind guy needed to happen here.
2nd – Why not a bigger Flop bet? What was the ‘standard’ c-bet at this table .. You are just inviting others to follow with draws using the main pot for odds. “I can’t beat an Ace (or 8?), but I am priced into my draw to win both pots”
3rd – Why no Turn bet? Must be same reason you folded River, eh? Figured TAG had to have something (Ace, 1010). A larger sized bet ($375+) probably wins the pot on Turn. What size bet do you put out there if you have A10 or similar? My guess is that you probably fold or isolate with A10 pre-Flop since it probably plays worse against limpers than the 85 does.
4th – Any and all limpers who just smooth call 2 raises. Hero was last to call $111, did he feel that he couldn’t isolate here due to image issues or fear of $6 guy? If you think you can get all other players out of pot while still ending up with 4 to 1 money with your junk hand … do it, eh!!
5th – No (min?)raise on River. It is possible that this wouldn’t work on TAG if he had a hand since you didn’t protect your ‘Ace’ on the Turn by betting out again. No real reason to suspect TAG is on a draw here as board is described.
6th – No Turn bet from TAG .. Did he really think that he would get ‘paid’ on a River 4? Sure he can see a free River, but semi-bluff Turn would really put him in position to get you off your hand on River with his image .. possible he didn’t think of that until the board blanked out.
Give TAG credit for using image and knowing that only way to win side (get back the $111 he WILL lose in main) is by betting the River. All of this and he made $39 net .. better than the rest of those who helped c/o reload for free!!
2 – Don’t size your bets based on what’s standard. Think about what you’re trying to accomplish. I was betting into a dry sidepot for protection/information. I didn’t have delusions of folding out a better hand, nor of making worse call. The only draws out there are gutshots with two undercards to my pair. Granted I’d still rather fold those than them have them pull something like this, but (a) I didn’t see this coming; and (b) I also want to avoid putting a bunch of money into the pot against an A when I’m drawing extremely thin.
3 – Right, TAG can easily have an A, and I really can’t rep much here. It’s what thing to get people to fold when they have nothing (ie on the flop) but another when they’ve shown interest in the pot.
4 – Good point to raise, this is worth considering. Would be moreso if I were OOP I think. Similar to what you said about the TT hand, I can make a similar move postflop with the added information of the board and the action in front of me. Still not letting them see the flop at all has merit. I guess part of the problem is that I don’t think I can get everyone to fold, and considering that my equity in the main pot isn’t great, I don’t want to end up getting in against 77 or something in a dry sidepot even if I did bump up my equity a bit in the main.
5 – Yeah I think you’re too focused on how I could have won this pot in light of what Villain actually had. Calling would have accomplished that, but I don’t see any reason he couldn’t have an Ace here.
6 – I like his line. He gets the free information of seeing me check turn, which gives him the greenlight to bluff river, as opposed to betting into me on turn when I could still have strong hands in my range.
loooooooool quit poker brokos you degenerate, you can’t beat the games any more!