Thanks for all the comments on Part 1 of the WCOOP “What’s Your Play?” After my own thoughts on the hand, I’ll post flop results and the next decision point.
BB’s Range
We must begin our analysis of this hand by recognizing that BB is all-in and we are playing what is currently a rather small sidepot with our other opponent, who shall henceforth be known as Villain. BB had barely 3 BBs to his name before posting, so he really shouldn’t be folding anything. We should assume that his range is extremely wide, probably any two cards. So despite the Ace on the flop, our Jacks are doing very well against him.
This fact is also important for thinking about Villain’s range. His opening can actually be wider than usual, because no matter what he has, he is guaranteed a profitable spot racing against BB considering the other blinds and antes already in the pot and short BB is. Of course there is still the problem of getting the rest of us, some of whom will recognize this situation for what it is, to fold, but hands like A6o and K9o go up in value because he won’t have to worry about playing those post-flop against a BB call, which is ordinarily the scenario you want to be prepared for if you attempt a steal and end up seeing a flop.
People generally, and correctly, play straightforwardly and passively in small sidepots. I don’t expect this to be an exception altogether, but we should note that Villain has a little more incentive than usual to bluff, since hands like small pairs and K-high actually have decent equity against BB if he can drive Hero out.
Checking vs Betting
The big advantage of checking is that we avoid putting money into the pot drawing to two outs, which is what happens if Villain holds an Ace.
Trentbridge identifies the big risk of checking, which is that, “you are unlikely to improve but a free card may help him.” Letting Villain turn a better hand than yours or a draw with which he decides to semi-bluff you is a disaster. It won’t happen all that often, but when it does, it’s very expensive.
Jonny is correct to point out that, with BB all in, folding out Villain still “doesn’t give you 100% equity in the pot,” but it does improve our equity, which is more than can be said for checking.
Betting also avoid, as Eric says, “having to make a super tough decision later on.” The less comfortable you are making that decision, the more inclined you should be to bet now.
Bet Sizing
Betting is my preferred play, though not by a lot. There’s certainly a case for checking. The play I don’t like is betting more than a pittance.
Remember that the objective of the bet is not to make him fold any sort of good hand. Rather, we want him to fold hands with 2-3 outs that are more or less garbage. Even a very small bet should accomplish that.
Actually, what we’d really like is for Villain to call with those weaker hands. That won’t happen if we bet 2700 into a sidepot – even a hand like KT would be an easy fold – but it might if we bet 700. In the actual hand I bet 888, and even that might be a little big:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (8 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG (t8460)
UTG+1 (t74958)
MP1 (t13938)
MP2 (t34929)
Hero (CO) (t14615)
Button (t15892)
SB (t17919)
BB (t967)
Hero’s M: 18.98
Preflop: Hero is CO with J♥, J♠
3 folds, MP2 bets t600, Hero raises to t1333, 2 folds, BB calls t627 (All-In), MP2 calls t733
Flop: (t4063) 10♦, 4♣, A♥ (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP2 checks, Hero bets t888, MP2 calls t888
Turn: (t5839) 2♥ (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP2 checks, Hero checks
River: (t5839) 9♥ (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP2 bets 1200, Hero?
The side pot has about 2600 in it. What’s your play and why? Post your thoughts here, and I’ll be back on Monday with my own as well as the results.
Given the turn check, I would simply call. If the point of the tiny flop bet is to have villain stick around with all his hands, especially those weaker than yours, the turn check must be because of some combination of:
a) you don’t want to face a check/raise
b) you don’t want to fold out those worse hands and have villain stick around with hands that beat you
c) you want to induce a bluff on the river
Unless you are thinking about raising, which I’m guessing you might only be doing as a bluff against a weak A from your opponent (I don’t think he’d believe you’d have the flush anyway), I can’t see raising here for value and getting called by worse. He also doesn’t need to make a curiosity call with his Tx hands since he’s going to see your hand anyway due to showdown with BB.
I think I’m probably beat, but the odds he’s giving are too good not to call. If it’s 75% likely that we are ahead of the big blind, then he’s giving us about 5:1. I think we’re ahead of him that often, so call.
hmmm I looked past how a small bet would stop v leading air but anyways…
I actually expect to see a mid-pair but even if he has a weak ace(oddly played imo) I doubt he will fold that often even if he doesn’t like it much.
IMO there’s actually a chance v folds a small ace to a bigger flop bet, and it sucks now we end up paying close to the same price in the end.
If he has a mid pair or air we obviously made more…
CALL…
So the more I think about this hand, the more I think V could have a small ace (checking the turn hoping you bet and trying to set a price on the river). Since he can’t have an ACE nor often a pair and have a flush it seems to me jamming the river would work most of the time to get a fold but honestly I don’t think I would ever do it.
Well, I was going to chime in and say that calling sounds good to me, too, but what I can’t figure out is what Villain is trying to do with that 1200 bet.
In part 1, we’re told that Villain is position-aware and presumably at least competent. So is there anything that a 1200 bet into a 5800 pot can mean other than a value bet? I guess *maybe* it drives out KQ/KJ if he puts us on exactly that as a hand.
I can’t come up with another option besides calling given the price, but I have this sinking feeling that we’re beat.
Call. There are enough hands we beat (Tx, smaller PPs) vs Ax hands to make calling profitable. The sexier play, Eric mentions, making a big raise, should work very well. If our table image is too crazy though, we will likely get looked up by 2pr and maybe even TP hands.